Racing Chat - Saturday 13th April

[The Brigadier]

Aintree 1.20

Grand National day starts with a valuable twenty two runner Premier Handicap Hurdle with a very open look about it. Pertemps Handicap Hurdle winner Monmiral takes on some of those that finished behind him that day with a 6lb rise to contend with. The third that day was Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Cuthbert Dibble, beaten only 3 1/2L and now 5lb better off, which may be enough to turn the form around and he’s the pick on ground that will suit. Dan Skelton fires three arrows at the race with the Harry Skelton ridden West Balboa, who took this last year from a 6lb lower mark and is unbeaten in two starts here probably the pick of the trio. The unexposed handicap debutant Johnnywho from the Jonjo O’Neill stable is another interesting runner in a contest where cases can be made for plenty but I’m sticking with Cuthbert Dibble each way.

 

CUTHBERT DIBBLE 1 point each way @ 13-2 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Aintree 1.55

A field of nine assemble for the 2M 4F Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s highly regarded mare Brighterdaysahead heads the market following a creditable 1 3/4L second in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham to Golden Ace which has already been franked by the victory of the fourth Jade De Grugy in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse. She looks sure to go well. An ex inmate of Elliott’s, Caldwell Potter may well end up the biggest threat as a Grade 1 winner himself at Leopardstown over Christmas. He’s been bought since at the Caldwell Construction Ltd dispersal for an obscene 740,000 euros and makes his stable debut for Paul Nicholls having missed Cheltenham. Gallaghers Novices’ Hurdle second and third Jimmy Du Seuil and Ile Atlantique, both trained by Willie Mullins add further spice to an intriguing race that can fall to Brighterdaysahead.

 

BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD 1 point win @ 2-1 BetVictor

 

Aintree 2.30

Just thirteen line up for this 3M 210 yard Premier Handicap Chase. Jonjo O’Neill’s Crebilly steps up in trip having run well when runner up in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham although he will need to improve his jumping to take a hand in the finish whilst the Skelton runner The King Of Ryhope showed improved form last time out when fourth of five in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot, form which ties him in with the runner up that day Kilbeg King. Anthony Honeyball saddles a trio of possibles in Sam Brown (who won this two years ago by 15L), Forward Plan and Kilbeg King who all have claims. At a bigger price I like the look of the bottom weight trained by Venetia Williams in the shape of Denmat. He ran a stormer for a long way in the 3M 2F Kim Muir Handicap Chase when a 33/1 chance on only his third run for Williams under Miss A O’Connor who rode him positively from the front. He weakened two out ending up 9th beaten 36L but the drop to a sharper track and two furlongs less with Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle can pay dividends and he looks a value each way play with an extra place even if it would of been better had Williams had her string in better form.

 

DEMNAT 1 point each way @ 20-1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Aintree 3.05

A dozen staying hurdlers assemble for the Grade 1 JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle. Gordon Elliott’s veteran Sire Du Berlais has won this event for the last two years and it would be no shock were he to pull the hat trick off for owner J P McManus. He was one of five from this field that ran in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham 30 days ago with Gavin Cromwell’s Flooring Porter coming out the best of the quintet going down by just under four lengths to the winner Teahupoo with Buddy One (4 1/2L), Sire Du Berlais (7L), Dashel Drasher (10 1/2L) and Crambo (10 3/4L) all behind. Flooring Porter has run well in this race before having finished runner up in 2022 and third last year and he can finally take the contest at the third attempt.

 

FLOORING PORTER 1 point win @ 7-2 William Hill

 

Aintree 4.00

A different Grand National with a maximum field of 34 is run over 4M 2F 74 yards and as always looks fiendishly difficult. Last year’s winner and runner up Corach Rambler and Vanillier are back again and both hold chances. With the ground being so soft this year you’re going to need to stay well and the race may fall to one of Willie Mullins’s eight in the shape of I Am Maximus who won the Irish Grand National last season under Paul Townend who is reunited with the eight year old having prepped for this by taking the 3M Bobbyjo Chase in February with Vanillier 14L back in second and now 4lb worse off. He does have his quirks mind but if he takes to the whole experience he may just be too classy for his rivals. John C McConnell’s Mahler Mission looks to have been mapped out for this having not been seen since November and can also go well as he will stay well and loves the mud. The best of the outsiders may well be Delta Work, one of eight trained in the race by Gordon Elliott who was still going ok when unseating eight from home last year. He sports first time blinkers and having been placed in the race two years ago will stay well. Of those at monster prices, Venetia Williams’s Chambard appeals as the sort to run well having shown he handles the fences and heavy ground by winning the Becher Chase last November.

 

I AM MAXIMUS 1 point each way @ 8-1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345

MAHLER MISSION 1 point each way @ 16-1 bet365 1/5th 123456

DELTA WORK 1/2 point each way @ 20-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567

CHAMBARD 1/4 point each way @ 66-1 Betfred 1/5th 1234567

 

Aintree 5.00

The valuable Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase is run over 2M and we have ten speedy chasers facing the judge. The favourite and the one they all have to beat is Gordon Elliott’s Found A Fifty. His 8 1/2L second spot in the Arkle at Cheltenham to Gaelic Warrior was given a big boost by the third that day Il Etait Temps winning at Aintree on Thursday. At a price I expect Sarah Humphrey’s Nickle Back to run well as a natural front runner who may well be suited by the track and may get an easy lead. He’s worth a small each way saver. The Willie Mullins trained Hercule Du Seuil is chasing a six timer and can’t be dismissed even though we haven’t seen him since the autumn.

 

FOUND A FIFTY 1 point win @ 2-1 bet365

NICKLE BACK 1/4 point each way @ 11-1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Aintree 5.35

The three day Aintree Grand National finishes with a 2M 1F Grade 2 NH Flat race. The Jonjo O’Neill trained favourite Mister Meggit has won bumpers at Carlisle and Doncaster in the mud without coming off the bridle and literally could be anything. He’s been priced accordingly mind. Emma Lavelle has her string in decent shape and her runner here Ma Shantou can reward an each way wager. Costing a cool £120,000 last December following a third in a Fairyhouse bumper he too made a scintillating British debut when bolting up at Huntingdon last month. It’s hard to know what he beat that day as nothing has run since from the race but I can see him running well under Tom Bellamy. The impression made by Mister Meggit though means he is the main bet although a small each way saver on Ma Shantou is also advised.

 

MISTER MEGGIT 1 point win @ 9-4 bet365

MA SHANTOU 1/2 point each way @ 7-1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

[Darran]

Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front.

Race 6

The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral.

Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill

Race 7

The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this.

Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. 

Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far.

I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup.

Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone

Athabascan @ 7 with everyone

Amade @ 10 with Bet365

Race 8

The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better.

Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill