MCLARKE Posted July 20 Author Share Posted July 20 1 point profit on Thursday COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Doncaster 6.45 Highland Olly 9.50 LADBROKES 4 Haydock 6.55 Sparkling Red 5.50 BETFAIR Newmarket 7.05 Papagei 14.00 BETFAIR Doncaster 7.45 Summer Of Love 4.25 LADBROKES Doncaster 8.45 Zafaan 7.50 BETFAIR Haydock 9.00 Jonny Concrete 3.50 BETFAIR Doncaster 6.45 Highland Olly 9.00 LADBROKES black rabbit, justanotherpunter and anaconda69 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 210 CURR SPEED 1 CELTIC CHIEFTAIN 133 76 209 28/1 2 TREASURE ISLE 124 63 187 66/1 3 BABUCHE IMPROVER MCLARKE and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 A blank day yesterday Current profit 109.64 points justanotherpunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Monday at 08:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 08:46 AM 21 hours ago, Zilzalian said: 210 CURR SPEED 1 CELTIC CHIEFTAIN 133 76 209 28/1 2 TREASURE ISLE 124 63 187 66/1 3 BABUCHE IMPROVER TREASURE ISLE DONE ON THE LINE (NOSE) FOR A DECENT EW, BIT BACK ON THE COVER BET MCLARKE, justanotherpunter and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Monday at 08:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 08:51 AM I dont like nursery's much but in the absence of much else today- 518 Windsor. 1. balzarini 124 64 188 9/1 2 johns dragon 120 49 169 6/1 3 sprited dancer 116 76 192 7/1 richard-westwood, justanotherpunter and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Monday at 10:53 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 10:53 AM A small loss yesterday Current profit 108.46 COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER Ayr 2.30 Ravenscraig Castle 3.50 BET VICTOR Windsor 5.18 John's Dragon 7.50 BETFAIR Ayr 5.25 Hale End 5.00 BET VICTOR Beverley 6.30 Variety Island 4.50 BETFAIR Beverley 7.00 Park Street 3.10 LADBROKES Windsor 7.20 Nogo's Dream 8.00 BETFAIR Beverley 7.30 Elettaria 8.00 BETFAIR Windsor 7.50 Mother Mary 10.00 BETFAIR Beverley 8.30 Dr Rio 12.00 LADBROKES Beverley 9.00 Dr Foster 8.00 BET VICTOR black rabbit and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:57 PM Reading @harry_rag's post in the Monday thread wherein he mentioned the rabbit hole of formulating your own prices. I had a fairly simple system a few years ago which might interest people or give them a starting point to come up with a method which doesn't do your head in Firstly you do your ratings or form study and put the horses into order of how much you fancy them...... so your top rated is 1, next is 2 etc then you simply take the betting forecast from Timeform or the Racing, Post,. ATR, Life whichever one you use. You keep the same odds as in the forecast but substitue your order of preference for their forecast So for example if their favourite was 3/1 then your top rated becomes 3/1, if their forecast second favourite was 7/2 then your second top rated is 7/2 You're having an 'expert' forecast the shape of the betting based on number of runners, how competitive it is, all the other things that go into formulating a betting forecast ....... then you're subbing your view of the most likely winner, second, third, fourth etc for their view If you're really keen you could always re-jig the forecast odds to a 100% book before subbing in your order of ratings Villa Chris, MCLARKE and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Monday at 02:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:07 PM @Trotter Just quickly done that for the race I've rated today and it threw up the same 4 horses that my attempt at pricing the race highlighted plus suggested a modicum of value in Sixties Chic. Wish I'd rated an earlier race now, too much waiting around for this one! Trotter and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Tuesday at 09:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:38 AM (edited) Posted in todays chat by mistake but hey ho here ya go... Speed nursery's crap racing but... 300 ling 1 oakley boy 2 winchurch 245 muss harswell dandy 2 go on rosie PLACE MONEY IS BETTER THAN BUGGER ALL FOR THE EW THIEVES Edited Wednesday at 10:49 AM by Zilzalian update MCLARKE and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Tuesday at 11:33 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:33 AM Just 1 winner yesterday for a loss of 3 points COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER Musselburgh 2.15 Little Ted 4.00 BET VICTOR Musselburgh 3.45 Classy Al 9.00 BETFAIR Musselburgh 4.50 Sea Master 4.50 BET VICTOR Musselburgh 5.25 Angel Of England 4.25 LADBROKES Bang on, justanotherpunter, anaconda69 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Celtic Warrior Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:10 PM On 3/20/2024 at 9:05 PM, MCLARKE said: Right, I'm diving straight into the deep end ! Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this. I was going to concentrate on the all weather but as @Trotter says, we are now probably past the peak season for the AW. After rereading some of Nick Mordin's work he does state that the racing post standard times are valuable but compiling your own average times would produce more accurate figures. So, in for a penny, in for a pound. I will start with Ascot (purely based on the alphabet). I have taken data for 2022 (I am going to use 2023 as test data). For each race I have listed the date, class, distance and winning time. Most of this data I have been able to download automatically. 1. Convert the data into seconds per mile. This shows the the fastest time was in a 5 furlongs sprint and the slowest time in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over nearly 2 miles 6 furlongs. Logical so far. 2. Calculate the average time for each distance. 2. Calculate the average winning time by distance and by class. So as an example for 6 furlongs there were 8 races at class 1 with an average time of 73.73 seconds, class 2 was 74.03 seconds and class 3 was 75.13 seconds. Convert these into seconds per mile. 3. For each race subtract the winning time from the average for that distance and class. 4. Calculate the average for that meeting. This is the going allowance for that meeting. The highest adjustment (1.53 secs / mile) was in June when the going was good to firm, the lowest adjustment (-2.85 secs / mile) was in October when the going was good to soft. I disagree to a certain extent with Mr Mordin at this stage, he takes a subjective view of each meeting, in an example of a 6 race meeting he excludes one race because it was "probably won by an exceptional horse" and for 2 others he excludes them because he would "guess that they were slow-run affairs". That leaves him with just three races to calculate the going allowance. 5. Subtract the going allowance from the winning time. 6. Subtract the adjusted winning time from the average winning time for that distance. The highest figure was for Pyledriver in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth stakes. Intuitively this feels right. The winning time was 149.49 secs (100.00 secs / mile), the average winning time for that distance is 102.62 secs / mile. The going adjustment for that meeting was -0.10 secs / mile, giving Pyledriver a rating of +2.72. The lowest rating was Oh This Is Us in a class 3 classified stakes with a rating of -3.87. 7. Convert the ratings to a scale. Not strictly necessary but conceptually better. The top rated horse could be given a rating of 140 and the lowest 0, possibly as a comparative to the BHB official ratings. 8. Calculate the ratings for the remaining horses in each race. I will use Nick Mordin's assumption that every fifth of a second is counted as one length. So there it is, my starter for ten. It seems logical but I may be missing something. The next step is to calculate these numbers going back a number of years for Ascot and also for all other courses. Time consuming but doable using Excel. Hopefully the effort will be worth it. Hi all, I have been producing all weather speed ratings for 15 years, using Mordin's method fronm his book. I have an excel spreadsheet which automates the data crunching process. I can get through a whole week's winter fixtures in about 2 hours. I am happy to share this spreadsheet for free if anyone is interested. n,b I get actual racetime etc data from raceform interactive, but this can be gathered manually from a number of different sites, racing post, ATR, timeform etc In Play Race Reader, Zilzalian, anaconda69 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 PM 45 minutes ago, Celtic Warrior said: Hi all, I have been producing all weather speed ratings for 15 years, using Mordin's method fronm his book. I have an excel spreadsheet which automates the data crunching process. I can get through a whole week's winter fixtures in about 2 hours. I am happy to share this spreadsheet for free if anyone is interested. n,b I get actual racetime etc data from raceform interactive, but this can be gathered manually from a number of different sites, racing post, ATR, timeform etc This is interesting to me from the aspect i too started with mordins ideas but found a few flaws so a comparison might be useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Wednesday at 10:48 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:48 AM SPEED NAAS 515 LISTED 1 AMAZING ATHENA 119 76 195 14/1 2 MISS LAMAI 116 77 193 6/5 3 SHAMROCK BREEZE 116 72 188 8/1 4 MERRILY 116 62 178 8/1 VERY TIGHT RACE BUT THE VALUE APPEARS TO BE THE TOP RATED AT 14/1 MCLARKE, anaconda69 and justanotherpunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Wednesday at 11:27 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:27 AM 20 hours ago, Celtic Warrior said: Hi all, I have been producing all weather speed ratings for 15 years, using Mordin's method fronm his book. I have an excel spreadsheet which automates the data crunching process. I can get through a whole week's winter fixtures in about 2 hours. I am happy to share this spreadsheet for free if anyone is interested. n,b I get actual racetime etc data from raceform interactive, but this can be gathered manually from a number of different sites, racing post, ATR, timeform etc I'd certainly be interested to see the spreasheet, always open to new ideas / methods Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Wednesday at 11:29 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:29 AM 1 winner yesterday for a 1 point profit Current profit 106.46 points COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Catterick 2.40 Cugini 12.00 BETFAIR Catterick 3.40 Owt For Nowt 16.00 BET VICTOR Lingfield 3.50 Theatrically 12.00 BETFAIR Catterick 4.10 Langholm 7.00 BET VICTOR 4 Catterick 4.40 Prince Maxi 2.75 BETFAIR Salisbury 6.00 Letter Of The Law 18.00 LADBROKES 4 Salisbury 7.40 Under Curfew 14.00 BETFAIR Leicester 7.50 Madame De Sevigne 4.50 BETFAIR Salisbury 8.10 Cavalry Call 9.00 BETFAIR Leicester 8.20 High Violet 6.50 BETFAIR BBBC and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Wednesday at 10:37 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:37 PM A good day today, 3 winners, Under Curfew at 12.19, High Violet at 10.52 and Madame De Sevigne at 6.45 for a profit of 19 points. A new high cumulative total, 73 wins from 345 runs, LSP 125.09. richard-westwood, harry_rag, Zilzalian and 4 others 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Thursday at 10:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:08 AM A couple of 2yo pattern races today worth having a dabble in. (2 iffy favs imo) 315 sand 1. Alla Stella 118 54 172 5/1 2. Flaming Stone 118 42 160 15/8 3. The Terminus 117+ 44 161+ 8/1 (value) 650 leop 1. Beckman 134 85 219 3/1 2. Hotazhell 126 82 208 7/2 3. Scorthy Champ 117 45 162 8/1 Personally i will be backing The Terminus and Beckman singles and a doobul few rfc singles and rfc dooble justanotherpunter, MCLARKE and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 11:32 AM COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER Doncaster 2.00 Thapa VC 5.50 BETFAIR Sandown 2.10 Spring Bloom 4.50 BET VICTOR Sandown 2.40 Pantile Warrior 7.00 BETFAIR Doncaster 3.05 Kings Merchant 4.25 LADBROKES Sandown 3.15 Alla Stella 6.00 LADBROKES Sandown 3.50 Spaceport 4.50 BETFAIR Doncaster 4.15 Eranthis 14.00 LADBROKES Sandown 4.20 Enrico Caruso 7.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 5.30 Dream Harder 5.50 QUINNBET Yarmouth 6.00 Hover On The Wind 12.00 BETFAIR Newbury 6.15 Absolute Queen 7.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 6.30 Royal Velvet 9.00 BETFAIR Yarmouth 7.00 Love Billy Boy 4.50 BETFAIR Yarmouth 7.30 Tropical Island 3.00 BETFAIR black rabbit, justanotherpunter and anaconda69 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Thursday at 10:09 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:09 PM Best day so far today with 5 winners from 14 selections at 12.00, 10.70, 8.82, 8.29 and 17/4 for a profit of 30 points Now past the 150 mark 78 wins from 359 runs, profit 155.43 Bang on, richard-westwood, LEE-GRAYS and 9 others 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Thursday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:39 PM 28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Best day so far today with 5 winners from 14 selections at 12.00, 10.70, 8.82, 8.29 and 17/4 for a profit of 30 points Now past the 150 mark 78 wins from 359 runs, profit 155.43 I reckon you aint going back to them shorties. 😉 MCLARKE, harry_rag, anaconda69 and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 08:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:50 AM I need to start backing these selections or stop looking at the thread! Otherwise it’s almost like I’m sat here wanting the “inevitable” correction to kick in, not out of malice but to justify my faith in the laws of probability. But, then again, if there’s one thing that’s almost certain to curtail your good fortune it’s me putting money on your selections. Damned if I do… anaconda69, MCLARKE, justanotherpunter and 1 other 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted yesterday at 08:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:54 AM 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Best day so far today with 5 winners from 14 selections at 12.00, 10.70, 8.82, 8.29 and 17/4 for a profit of 30 points Now past the 150 mark 78 wins from 359 runs, profit 155.43 Next time you have 4/5 winners can you let us know which ones beforehand so I can bang then in a lucky 15/31 harry_rag, anaconda69, justanotherpunter and 2 others 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted yesterday at 10:31 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 10:31 AM 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: I need to start backing these selections or stop looking at the thread! Otherwise it’s almost like I’m sat here wanting the “inevitable” correction to kick in, not out of malice but to justify my faith in the laws of probability. But, then again, if there’s one thing that’s almost certain to curtail your good fortune it’s me putting money on your selections. Damned if I do… I am also waiting for the correction, a return of 43% is not sustainable with this volume of daily bets. This is turning out to be my most profitable month ever. Villa Chris, anaconda69, harry_rag and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted yesterday at 10:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 10:46 AM 12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I am also waiting for the correction, a return of 43% is not sustainable with this volume of daily bets. This is turning out to be my most profitable month ever. I think I’ve got all your bad luck this month, my YTD profit slowly ebbing away. I’m hoping for a new season bounce in August. I’m trapped in that “missed the wedding but went to the funeral” twilight zone when it comes to the notion of following you on these. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Ascot 2.25 Attila The Honey 5.00 BETFAIR Thirsk 2.35 Shamal Wind 4.50 BET VICTOR Ascot 3.35 Hosaamm 3.50 BET VICTOR Thirsk 3.45 Pearl Sands 5.00 BET VICTOR Ascot 4.10 Miller Spirit 6.00 LADBROKES Thirsk 4.20 South Parade 8.50 BETFAIR Ascot 4.45 Apeeling 5.00 BET VICTOR Thirsk 4.55 Dandy Fitz 4.50 BET VICTOR York 5.30 Leadenhall 4.50 BET VICTOR 5 York 5.30 The Cookstown Cafu 7.50 BET VICTOR 5 York 5.30 Finbar's Lad 12.00 BET VICTOR 5 Sandown 5.55 Bletchley Storm 8.00 BET VICTOR Chepstow 6.50 Rhubarb 11.00 BET VICTOR Sandown 7.05 Naasma 9.00 BETFAIR Sandown 8.10 Game Set 6.50 BET VICTOR York 8.20 Merrimack 6.50 LADBROKES 4 Chepstow 8.25 Bonaventure 5.50 BETFAIR Sandown 8.45 King Of Charm 4.00 BETFAIR Chepstow 8.55 Meet Me In Meraki 6.00 BETFAIR anaconda69 and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 15 hours ago, Zilzalian said: I reckon you aint going back to them shorties. 😉 Maybe, first 2 selections today came second to odds on favourites anaconda69 and justanotherpunter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Maybe, first 2 selections today came second to odds on favourites Where there is an odds on fav i generally don't even bother with the race to be honest unless i have got a really good reason to believe they are false favs/prices MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago It is a nice feeling when they beat a strong favourite that all the "experts" are drooling over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 30 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: It is a nice feeling when they beat a strong favourite that all the "experts" are drooling over Yes i agree but its all about getting the numbers/choices down in my case and nice feelings don't make money 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeMale Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago @MCLARKE if you have the time this late in the evening, could you let me know how far up your ratings Ticktyboo came in the 2020 at York please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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