Racing Chat - Sunday 21st January

[The Brigadier]

With Fakenham falling foul to the elements we're left with Lingfield (subject to a early morning inspection) and one cracking race from Thurles on ITV on Sunday afternoon. Here's my thoughts on them -

 

Lingfield 1.15

The Lightning Novices’ Chase has been re-scheduled from Friday’s abandoned meeting and has attracted just five runners with only 7lb between the entire field at todays weights. All can be given a chance of sorts but its the Simon Munir & Isaac Souede owed Matata that catches my eye. He carries no penalties here (unlike three of his rivals) and has shown more than enough in two starts over fences to suggest he can win this. A easy 10L winner at Ffos Las in a novice’s handicap chase on his chasing debut in October, he stepped forward from that when runner up in a similar contest at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day giving weight to all and a reproduction o that effort should see him thereabouts.

 

MATATA 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill

 

Thurles 1.35

The 2M 4F Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase features six runners, four of which hail from the Willie Mullins stable. Stable jockey Paul Townend rides double Ryanair Chase victor Allaho who has also won this race in 2021 and 2022. He’s got officially 8lb and upwards in hand here and will be hard to beat. He looked good at Clonmel on his re-appearance after a 561 day lay off and there was plenty to like about his third in the King George over Christmas. He should be winning this with maybe his stable mate Appreciate It following him home.

 

ALLAHO 1 point win @ EVS Betfred

 

Lingfield 1.50

A valuable 2M class 2 handicap chase is up next with six possibles lining up. Irish challenger The King Of Prs is chasing a four timer and although 2lb wrong at the weights has to be respected. Devon trainer Jane Williams has her string in fine form winning with three of her last 10 runners and can take this with her six year old gelding Saint Segal. He stepped forward from a creditable third to Boothill at Ascot on his re-appearance in early November when looking likely to beat that rival three weeks later at the same venue when a length ahead and keeping on when unfortunately falling at the last. Raised 3lb for that he looks sure to be involved in the finish under regular pilot David Noonan.

 

SAINT SEGAL 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365

 

Lingfield 2.25

A field of eleven line up for this class 2 2M 7F handicap hurdle which has a very open look about it. Dan Skelton’s Nurse Susan looks the most obvious but she has stamina to prove here and it maybe worth chancing bottom weight Classic Concorde who maybe the oldest in the field at eleven years of age but is in the form of his life winning five of his last six starts, with his only defeat coming on good to firm ground. His latest victory came at Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day when defeating J’Ai Froid by 2 1/2L with that one winning since at Warwick to frank the form (back in 3rd was the re-opposing Tanganika). The overnight forecast rain will help soften the ground and receiving weight from all looks a value each way play for Welsh trainer David Brace who has booked the promising 7lb conditional jockey Tom Broughton (15 wins from 64 career starts).

 

CLASSIC CONCORDE 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5 1234

CLASSIC CONCORDE & O’CONNELL (3.35) 1/4 point each way double

 

 

Lingfield 3.00

The feature race of the day is the £165,000 guaranteed 2M 6F Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase which will see six chasers go to post. My first thoughts were that I wanted to oppose the odds on favourite L’Homme Presse as his yard of Venetia Williams have fallen out of form having not had a winner 17 runs and 16 days and with the trip on the short side and the ground not soft enough but the more you look at the opposition its hard to think he will come undone. He’s won first time out three times in his career and with forecast rain overnight maybe the ground wont be too dry for him. I’ll sit and watch but with his only real danger Protektorat dropping in trip and carrying a 8lb penalty he should be winning.

 

Lingfield 3.35

A decent sized field of fourteen line up for the Fitzdares Surrey National Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 5F. The race looks open with many holding chances. The jockey booking of Harry Cobden for the Sue Smith trained bottom weight O’Connell looks very interesting. This is Sue Smith’s first runner here in the last five years (possibly longer!) and having only his seventh chase start under rules (his tenth in total) may have more to come now stepping up to a marathon trip. He ran fourth over 3M 3 1/2F on Boxing Day in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen (the re-opposing Animal was a neck ahead of him). He looks a value each way play with extra places.

 

O’CONNELL 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

 

[richard-westwood]

715 chelm 

Bosh  8.7 9/2 

Letmeluvemylife  8.6 12/1 

Blind beggar. 8.4. 9/1 

Expert agent. 8.0 

Close between these three and they are a little clear ....not sure bling beggar wants 6f ...would probably be better over 5f but he still warrants respect ....I'll try  top two 4pt wins  ....and 24 x 20p tricasts all four