Racing Chat - Thursday 11th January

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Chelmsford 6.30

ROTHAY PARK

 

[azzybear]

looking as you are 12.10 ew 

[azzybear]

pandoras gift 12.20

[azzybear]

money heist 12.25 

[azzybear]

miners ridge 1.00

[The Equaliser]

1.20 Catt Monaghan Boy 2 pts win at 5.7 with Betfair.  Emma Smith Chaston has a good record over chases.  Micky Hammond has had 14 winners over the last 5 years but only a 7.4 % strike rate.  It is hard to fancy Brian Hughes rides for him though he did get second on You Say Its Over.  I think that Polisud is his best ride but the only thing I can see in its favour is that it's down in trip and that might spark an improvement.  However, I will stick with Monaghan Boy.  I didn't realise that Brian Hughes seems to ride hurdles best as opposed to chase races

[The Equaliser]

59 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

1.20 Catt Monaghan Boy 2 pts win at 5.7 with Betfair.  Emma Smith Chaston has a good record over chases.  Micky Hammond has had 14 winners over the last 5 years but only a 7.4 % strike rate.  It is hard to fancy Brian Hughes rides for him though he did get second on You Say Its Over.  I think that Polisud is his best ride but the only thing I can see in its favour is that it's down in trip and that might spark an improvement.  However, I will stick with Monaghan Boy.  I didn't realise that Brian Hughes seems to ride hurdles best as opposed to chase races

Could only get second.

I have done a 2 pts L15 & acca on the Daily and have risked an ew bet on the 7.30 at Chelm

7.30 Chel The Lion Strikes 1 pt ew at 16/1 with Skybet 4p Gina Mangan and John O'Shea look like a good combination for this event.

6 points were staked today

Edited January 11 by The Equaliser

[azzybear]

uther Pendragon 6.30

[azzybear]

7.30

[azzybear]

love de vega 8.00

[MCLARKE]

On 1/11/2024 at 1:12 PM, The Equaliser said:

It is hard to fancy Brian Hughes rides for him though he did get second on You Say Its Over.  I think that Polisud is his best ride but the only thing I can see in its favour is that it's down in trip and that might spark an improvement.  However, I will stick with Monaghan Boy.  I didn't realise that Brian Hughes seems to ride hurdles best as opposed to chase races

Brian Hughes is generally overbet with an AE of 0.94 over the last 8 years. Last year was 0.86 so I would stay well clear of him. AE for hurdles is 0.93. He has a good record at Sedgefield with 92 wins from 387 runs with a profit of 65 points and an AE of 1.07. His AE for favourites is 0.88. AE for handicaps is 0.89. He has a decent record with inexperienced horses (1-3 runs) with 99 wins from 395 runs. Profit is 33 points, AE is 1.15.

[Zilzalian]

21 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Brian Hughes is generally overbet with an AE of 0.94 over the last 8 years. Last year was 0.86 so I would stay well clear of him. AE for hurdles is 0.93. He has a good record at Sedgefield with 92 wins from 387 runs with a profit of 65 points and an AE of 1.07. His AE for favourites is 0.88. AE for handicaps is 0.89. He has a decent record with inexperienced horses (1-3 runs) with 99 wins from 395 runs. Profit is 33 points, AE is 1.15.

All very interesting but what are his stats re multiple winners at meetings over the last 3 seasons?

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

All very interesting but what are his stats re multiple winners at meetings over the last 3 seasons?

Not quite sure what stats you are after, at meetings where he had more than 1 runner he has 286 wins from 1,659 runners with a loss of 386 points

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Not quite sure what stats you are after, at meetings where he had more than 1 runner he has 286 wins from 1,659 runners with a loss of 386 points

I wasn't after any stats as such i was pointing out that not all things are obviously visible using stats, for example Lucinda Russel had 3 horses out yesterday at Wolves as it happened she didn't get any wins or places the odds were 66/1 66/1 & 33/1 £1. An EW patent would have returned a profit if one of the 66/1 shots got placed so even accepting that non had any chance of winning, a couple of places would have been a good profit, If Hughes gets a treble+ then the accumulative odds  can knock out loses v singles. It is harder to do it with trainers because they have many runners across the meetings, but not impossible (depends on how many runners) example Skeltern on Saturday had 6 winners but from 16 runners. I dare say the stats will show a loss for N Richards (in profit 4 years out of the last 10 but an overall loss) but i made a good few bob in November when he had multiple winners one day Hughes riding 3 of them if i remember correctly. It was this statement " I would stay well clear of him" that got me thinking and responding, So yes the quote was correct but there are always other angles to explore.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I wasn't after any stats as such i was pointing out that not all things are obviously visible using stats, for example Lucinda Russel had 3 horses out yesterday at Wolves as it happened she didn't get any wins or places the odds were 66/1 66/1 & 33/1 £1. An EW patent would have returned a profit if one of the 66/1 shots got placed so even accepting that non had any chance of winning, a couple of places would have been a good profit, If Hughes gets a treble+ then the accumulative odds  can knock out loses v singles. It is harder to do it with trainers because they have many runners across the meetings, but not impossible (depends on how many runners) example Skeltern on Saturday had 6 winners but from 16 runners. I dare say the stats will show a loss for N Richards (in profit 4 years out of the last 10 but an overall loss) but i made a good few bob in November when he had multiple winners one day Hughes riding 3 of them if i remember correctly. It was this statement " I would stay well clear of him" that got me thinking and responding, So yes the quote was correct but there are always other angles to explore.

If he makes a big loss at level stakes, I suspect he is unlikely to make a profit backing in doubles / trebles etc, if anything the returns will be worse.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

If he makes a big loss at level stakes, I suspect he is unlikely to make a profit backing in doubles / trebles etc, if anything the returns will be worse.

You are entirely right; if someone is loss making backing them in singles then you'll lose more backing them (blindly) in multiples (unless down to dumb luck with their only 3 winners coming at the same meeting and at huge prices). 

Obviously if you only back them on the days they hit 3 big priced winners you'll be fine, but then if you stick to only backing their winning rides as singles you'll do ok too.

I guess the point is he's best avoided unless you're bringing something to the table (e.g. your own ratings/skill/judgement) that enables you to sort the wheat from the chaff and identify his rides where there is some value to be had.

[Zilzalian]

I had a discussion with Mr Clarke after Cheltenham 2022 about V Williams when he said the stats show that she is negative at Cheltenham after me saying that you should back her at Cheltenham but what his stats didn't highlight was the very point. I made and i am recollecting from memory here around £700 from her horses using EW, BOG, Early prices and Extra Places (hard to find in stats) incidentally if Royale Pagaile (33/1) had not been nodded on the line for 4th place it would have been 10 times that amount. Might i point out that that is in no way a negative? Stats are very useful but they have limitations and should never be used as a definitive. Some people get so stuck in systems/stats to the point they are blinded to all the other factors involved in betting after all a trainer with a 50% strike rate at say Plumpton also has a 50% losing rate. @harry_rag @MCLARKE

[harry_rag]

I accept that using win stats won't be as relevant when it comes to place betting especially when you factor in things like extra places and early prices which, as you say, probably won't feature in most readily available information.

The original point stands about multis not being a magic bullet; start out with a bet criteria that loses money bet as singles and you can't expect to make it profitable by doing multis (other than by pure luck in the short term). Plenty of losing punters who don't keep records could still point to the occasional "glory day" like those that you recall but it's your records that tell you it wasn't a fluke for you. (Stats again!) 

[harry_rag]

As a relief from all the stat waffle here's a terrible joke that's just occurred to me while betting on the African Cup footy.

What happens to a bloke who lies on a beach with almost his whole body covered up, apart from one lughole? He Tanzania! 

I'll get me coat.

[Zilzalian]

32 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

As a relief from all the stat waffle here's a terrible joke that's just occurred to me while betting on the African Cup footy.

What happens to a bloke who lies on a beach with almost his whole body covered up, apart from one lughole? He Tanzania! 

I'll get me coat.

You need more than your coat pal try a gallows. 🤣

[Gary66]

On 1/15/2024 at 2:36 PM, MCLARKE said:

Brian Hughes is generally overbet with an AE of 0.94 over the last 8 years. Last year was 0.86 so I would stay well clear of him. AE for hurdles is 0.93. He has a good record at Sedgefield with 92 wins from 387 runs with a profit of 65 points and an AE of 1.07. His AE for favourites is 0.88. AE for handicaps is 0.89. He has a decent record with inexperienced horses (1-3 runs) with 99 wins from 395 runs. Profit is 33 points, AE is 1.15.

If you don’t already know adrianmassey.com is a great site to use for trainer jockey and course stats really useful