Football Statistics

[MCLARKE]

A rare visitor to these shores and not sure if this is the right forum. I very rarely bet on the football, horse racing is my bag, but I have been offered various price boosts on BETMGM and football seems the best bet due to the lower overrounds.

As a result I have delved into the last 15 years stats for the premier league. All odds are based on BET365 prices Friday afternoon for weekend matches and Tuesday afternoon for midweek matches.

Overall the overround is 1.043 although it has increased from 1.026 in 2014 to 1.054 in 2023.

The ROI is -4.7%. The optimum bet is the home win with a loss of 1.2%. The draw is a loss of 6.8% and the away win is 5.9%.

Outsiders have the best record with a loss of 0.6%, the favourite is a loss of 2.9% and the middle odds is a loss of 9.9%.

Some statistics by teams 

Home win top 5          

Home win bottom 5   

Away win top 5            

Away win bottom 5     

Home draw top 5        

Home draw bottom 5 

Away draw top 5          

Away draw bottom 5   

Not sure how relevant these stats are but gives me a bit of a steer.

The standout bet tomorrow would be Burnley to beat Liverpool at 15/2 (Burnley +20, Liverpool -19).

 

 

 

 

 

[MMFloors]

Burnley +1.5AH is a good bet according to my model too. See other thread.