Racing Chat - Saturday 18th November

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham 1.45

ITV’s coverage starts with a six runner 3M 110 yard listed novices’ chase with all bar rank outsider Cloudy Flamingo having a chance of sorts with the best value possibly lying with Sam Thomas’s Good Risk At All. It looked like he had mastered his main betting rival Giovinco when that one made a mistake and unseated his rider three from home on their chasing debuts at Carlisle 23 days ago impressing with his fluid jumping. He does have to conclusively prove he stays this longer trip but with Sam Twiston-Davies doing the steering can score from the Henderson runner Mister Coffey, who is 0 from 9 over fences.

 

GOOD RISK AT ALL 1 point win @ 5/2 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 2.20

The meeting’s feature race is the Paddy Power Gold Cup and has attracted a field of fourteen with a very open look about it. Many can be given chances including Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay and he’s the pick here. A smart chaser last season who racked up a hat trick in novice handicap chases prior to a good 3 1/4L second in the Grade 1 Turners Chase at the Festival here to the re-opposing Stage Star. He’s 3lb better for a 3 1/2L beating and has teed up for this with a good fourth over an inadequate two miles at the last meeting here when he ran an eye catching fourth (beaten 3 1/2L). He looks fair each way value under Adam Wedge.

 

NOTLONGTILLMAY 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Lingfield 2.36

The 10F Churchill Stakes is a listed race and can go to the Charlie Appleby trained Blue Trail who is officially the best horse in the field at today’s weights. Not seen since April when disappointing on easy ground he has a big chance if able to reproduce his previous run when spread eagling a fourteen runner field in a Meydan handicap, coasting home to win by 11 lengths. He’s two from four on the all weather and can initiate a Godolphin/ James Doyle double with Mischief Magic in the following contest.

 

BLUE TRAIL 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Cheltenham 2.55

Fifteen go to post for this three mile handicap hurdle which has an open look about it. Plenty of these are coming back from chasing making it even trickier and maybe it’s worth going with the consistent Judicial Law who ran so well at the last meeting when chasing home Hyland in a similar contest over the same trip. Jonjo O’Neill’s six year old has won six of his 17 starts and with just a 3lb rise for that latest good effort can hopefully go one better today.

 

JUDICIAL LAW 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Lingfield 3.11

The 6F Golden Rose Stakes is up next, a listed race which has attracted a field of eleven. At these weights the best in is the Charlie Appleby trained Mischief Magic and he’s going to be hard to beat under James Doyle. Good enough to win a Group 3 at Kempton as a two year old along with the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. Having failed to perform earlier in the season he bounced back to form when winning at Kempton last month and should be too good for these.

 

MISCHIEF MAGIC 2 points win @ 13/8 William Hill

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Just nine go to post for this 2M 5F handicap hurdle which maybe fought out by the two market leaders in Jonjo O’Neill’s re-appearing top weight Springwell Bay and the Olly Murphy trained Resplendent Grey. Slight preference is for the latter as he has had a run this season, when runner up to the smart Captain Teague in the Persian war Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow in October. This, like his danger Springwell Bay, will be his handicap debut and he can make the most of the 10lb he receives from his rival.

 

RESPLENDENT GREY 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

[White Feather]

Cheltenham Open Meeting - Saturday 18th November 2023

12.35 Cheltenham – The JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (JH) 

A key trial for juveniles heading onto bigger and better things and progressing through the ranks is the opener to a fantastic day’s racing at Cheltenham on Saturday. J P McManus won this race with the fabulous Defi Du Seuil and today could be back with redemption with the Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm-trained Milan Tino. Despite not winning on his two starts to date in France, he has shown some strong form over in France, having been placed twice at Auteuil in Listed/Graded level. Both runs were over further than this though and the ground might prove too quick for his liking. Ellerton is the other with French form, but it doesn’t stack up to the same level.  

An Bradan Feasa proved he was much suited to hurdles when bolting home by eight lengths in a Ballinrobe maiden for Joseph O’Brien. However, you would have thought that if he was going to be anything better than useful, he would have stayed with connections. Although fair on the Flat achieving a rating of 72, Gifted Angel was 0-14 but has really found his feet over hurdles making it 3-5 when easily winning at Kempton. He is by far the most exposed in the field and albeit his experience could come in handy, he is only rated 120 and you would hope that there are others in here that will achieve more.

Eagle Prince was a surprise winner on debut at Sedgefield at 10/1 but it wasn’t the deepest race by any means, and he only won by a neck. Only rated 60 on the Flat, he was clearly crying out for this step up in trip, so there could be more to come over this distance. However, I just don’t think he will have the speed to keep up with these in the hands of Nico and the same can be said for Wetherby debut winner I Still Have Faith, who has the hood applied again. The filly Parish Road was simply outclassed at Chepstow and the handy fillies’ allowance might not be enough to remain competitive here, while Knight Of Allen makes his racecourse debut and will probably be too green at the first time of asking.   

From a win point of view, I feel like the value must lie with the James Owen-trained Burdett Road over the current favourite. Since finishing third in a Group 3 in August and racing in a hood, he remained very keen last time out at Huntingdon due to the modest pace. He still jumped neatly though, and you can see him going from the front again, although he does need to learn to settle and handle the winter ground. Nevertheless, the selection here is no other than GALACTIC JACK. His connections, Mark & Maria Adams, clearly hold this race in very high regard as they won this last year with Scriptwriter. Making his name known of the Flat achieving a rating of 95, he will surely have a lot more scope in the juvenile hurdling division. A winner over 1m4f already, you would expect him to stay this trip at a steadier pace and he looks overpriced on hurdling debut.  

bettrends Advice: 
GALACTIC JACK 0.5pt E/W @ 20/1 (William Hill)

 

1:45 Cheltenham – The From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase (Listed Race) (JB2)

A race won by subsequent Brown Advisory winner, The Real Whacker, last term we are treated to another really interesting renewal this year. We can start with the mercurial Mister Coffey for Nicky Henderson who, somehow, is still actually a novice and is still a maiden over fences in nine starts. The eight-year-old has been the epitome of the old saying ‘always the bridesmaid and never the bride’ and despite never winning over the larger obstacles, has notched up five runner-up spots and two thirds; a consistent performer who never wins! He has proved he runs well at Cheltenham though, second in the Kim Muir in 2022 and third in the National Hunt Chase in 2023. He was last seen jumping the last in the Grand National with subsequent winner Corach Rambler after an impressive round of jumping in the main before falling away on the long run-in and he does arrive here as the highest rated in the field. However, from a win perspective, we are happy to look elsewhere here despite his obvious claims and he will no doubt still be involved in the finish.

The horse that makes appeal here is GOOD RISK AT ALL for Sam Thomas, who made an encouraging start to life over fences when winning at Carlisle over 2m4f. Granted the main principal that day, Giovinco, did fall at the third last just as they began to get racing, but the seven-year-old jumped and travelled exceptionally on debut and looks one to follow over the bigger obstacles; Giovinco backed up at Aintree when last seen too. Although his main rival was a faller, he still had the reopposing Alaphilippe well back in second, beaten 16 lengths, and it was still a mightily impressive performance. Although only tried at three miles once as a hurdler, when sixth in the old Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, he has always shaped as a stayer and should improve for the step up in trip on Saturday. He was rated as high as 143 as a hurdler, and if he can surpass that rating as a chaser, it would likely be enough to win this contest. Sam Thomas has been in good form to start the season, operating at a 25% strike rate, as has jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, and everything points towards a good run from GOOD RISK AT ALL.

It is also interesting that Sam Twiston-Davies has chosen to ride our selection, as it would be imagined he also had the pick of his father’s two runners: Weveallbeencaught and Broadway Boy. Broadway Boy is interesting as the five-year-old proved progressive at the back end of last term, landing two handicap hurdles, and took his form up a notch when bolting up on chase debut in September at Worcester, beating Mofasa by over nine lengths; Paul Nicholls’ horse has since boosted that form by winning at Leicester on his next start. He then came here over course and distance and gave classy stayer Flooring Porter most to think about on his chase debut and perhaps would have gotten closer if not for a couple of mistakes at the final couple of fences. From a mark of 137, he looks tailor-made for a big staying handicap but has chosen to come here instead; even if beaten here, he would be of interest if stepping into handicap company further into the season. Stablemate Weveallbeencaught was over a length behind at Cheltenham that day, but again appeared lethargic and cumbersome, just as he did on a few occasions over hurdles last year. He burst onto the scene when chasing home Hermes Allen on hurdles debut, got off the mark here at Cheltenham and finished seventh in the Albert Bartlett so he no doubt holds plenty of ability, but he has to get back on track here. He has always looked a big, galloping chaser in the making though so could come forward with that chase debut under his belt.

As mentioned earlier, Alaphilippe was well beaten behind our selection at Carlisle last time, but it is worth noting that he was making his chase debut after 588 days off the track and will no doubt have needed the run after such a long layoff. A talented hurdler, he won the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett in 2021 and would then be beaten just a neck in the Pertemps in 2022 from a mark of 138. A real strong stayer, he should come on for that first run, but I am always nervous about injury-plagued horses embarking on a novice chase campaign later in their career and he may have less scope for improvement than a few of the younger horses in this field. Point-to-Point winner Cloudy Flamingo makes his rules debut for Keiran Burke here, but he has only completed two of his last five starts in that sphere and it would be a huge surprise if he were good enough to win this.

bettrends Advice:

GOOD RISK AT ALL 1pt WIN @ 15/8 (Bet365/William Hill)

 

2:20 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (JB2)

After outlining the trends and running our tried and tested trends system on the whole field in our Handicap Breakers service, we have four horses who come out on top and make it onto our shortlist. The first of those is the Brown Advisory winner from the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, THE REAL WHACKER, who must carry top weight with a rating of 162 due to last season’s successful exploits. Patrick Neville’s progressive seven-year-old won all three starts over fences at the track last term, jumping them into submission on both the old course and new course. Although a winner at the Festival over three miles, he did win the Grade 2 Dipper over this trip and is perhaps seen to best effect bowling out in front over the shorter trip and turning it into a real stamina test on the front end; think Coole Cody and Baron Alco who have won this race in recent years with similar tactics. Gerri Colombe, second behind THE REAL WHACKER in March, has already came out and won an open Grade 1 and is now second favourite for the Gold Cup, so there is no doubt THE REAL WHACKER is the best horse in the race on ability. Granted he must carry a lofty weight here, but with his excellent jumping and cruising speed, he really could take a fair bit of pegging back under Sam Twiston-Davies here, especially on the old course, and he is the selection here.

Next up on the shortlist is Dan Skelton’s Unexpected Party, who has chosen to come here rather than the much easier assignment of the Grade 2 novice chase on Friday, so the top target trainer clearly believes his runner has as good a chance as any in this field. Winless as a novice chaser last term, he did run some nice races in defeat but was over eight lengths behind Stage Star in the Turners, although was barely put into the race from the rear that day. The eight-year-old did return with a good victory in Listed company at Chepstow though, and the second, Knappers Hill, has given that form a real nice boost since, bolting up in the Grade 2 Rising Stars Novice Chase last weekend. He gets in here from a mark of 146, a 9lb weight swing with Stage Star, and you would imagine this has been the plan for some time; he could be well-treated here.

Joining the shortlist is also the nine-year-old Angels Breath. Sam Thomas’ charge was a mightily impressive novice chaser back in 2019 for Nicky Henderson, beating First Flow by eight lengths before cantering to a 23 length success in a Grade 2 at Ascot. He has had injury issues since but returned to the track for his new trainer in January after over 1000 days away from the track. He clearly struggled after the layoff last term, but returned this term after a full summer on his back with a solid second in a handicap hurdle here at Cheltenham. He drifted before the off that day, so may not have been fully ready, so that was a good performance with the Paddy Power Gold Cup in mind. If showing any of his old ability over fences, he could appear thrown in here from a mark of just 144.

Last but not least, rounding out our shortlist is Laura Morgan’s admirable seven-year-old Notlongtillmay, who chased home Stage Star when second in the Turners in March and now gets a 3lb weight swing with that rival. An incredibly progressive novice chaser who won his first three over fences in impressive style, he ran a cracker at the Festival at massive odds and looks to have a great chance here. He returned with a nice prep run over the shorter trip of two miles here at the track back in October, staying on into fourth, and that will likely put him spot on for his big target here in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

bettrends Advice:

THE REAL WHACKER 0.5pts E/W @ 7/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

 

3.30 Cheltenham – The Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (WU)  

Resplendent Grey put up an excellent effort in behind Captain Teague in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow. He was eventually beaten 9 ½ lengths but the winner is clearly a Graded performer, and he was very much ridden with winning in mind, which no doubt cost him in the finish. A 6lb rise doesn’t look beyond him but it was harsh none the less and this doesn’t look an easy assignment on only his fourth start over hurdles. He may prove to be the big danger but he’s a lot to prove against some more experienced opponents.  

Matthew J Smith enlists first time cheekpieces to try and bring Another Choice back into the winners’ enclosure. This looks a tough assignment for all he does have some useful form. He wouldn’t want the ground to be too soft and the handicapper has chosen to raise him 6lb from his Irish mark. Londonofficecallin is the other Irish raider for the McNamara pairing. He could well prove popular in the market with a string of ones next to his name, with his last win coming at Killarney. That was a good performance, and he does look to be an improving type that could defy the 16 extra pounds he is due to carry. There is plenty of upside, but he’d need to continue his upward trajectory to land a blow here. 

Tiger Jet is once again partnered by Harry Cobden and will no doubt strip fitter for his first outing after a break. The trip and ground would not have played to his strengths that day and Brian Ellison has already said that quicker ground is the key to this horse. His mark looks workable on previous results but the forecast rain could prove a problem. 

SPRINGWELL BAY carries top weight for the O’Neills but on all known form is much better than this field. They’ve opted to keep him over hurdles and a nice pot like this looks the obvious starting place for a potentially Graded runner. He’s been dropped 3lb for his sixth in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle and will be facing nothing of that quality here. His only other start at Cheltenham saw him finish third where he already looked as though a step up in trip would suit. They think a lot of him at home and he’s got more than enough form in the book to see him win a race of this quality. He’d be a strong selection and there looks to be plenty of value in his price. 

bettrends Advice: 
SPRINGWELL BAY 1pt WIN @ 2/1 (Various)

 

4:05 Cheltenham – The Karndean Designflooring Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (JB2)

The concluding race on Saturday is the mares’ bumper and the market, as is usually the case in these races, is made up by a Willie Mullins horse and it is no surprise to see why; the master of Closutton has an unprecedented 53% strike rate in bumpers in Ireland this term. He sends the four-year-old Baby Kate here, with Brian Hayes getting the leg up rather than usual number one Patrick Mullins, who stays in Ireland. The daughter of Champs Elysees is out of a smart mare trained by Mullins, Augusta Kate, who herself won two Listed bumpers and was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles. She made good on her lovely pedigree when winning a bumper on debut at Ballinrobe and, despite racing wide early, stayed on strongly all the way to the line to win by a length from subsequent winner Switch From Diesel. She looks a strong stayer who will relish the Cheltenham hill and, like her dam who ran in the Albert Bartlett as a novice, may prove to be a staying type when switched to hurdles further down the line. A Mullins bumper horse, especially with a strong pedigree, must always be respected but his record in the mares’ bumper at the November meeting here leaves a bit to be desired; all fives horses he has sent here in the past decade have been beaten, and three of those were short-priced favourites. This gives us enough to take Baby Kate on, and there is plenty of value to be had elsewhere in the market.

The one that makes appeal here is SHARP OBJECT, who actually beat the aforementioned Switch From Diesel more convincingly on debut despite that rival having more experience on that occasion; she hit the front and kicked clear powerfully, putting over four lengths between herself and the second. Trainer John McConnell actually has an excellent record in UK bumpers, with a 21%-win rate across the last five seasons, and he has already hit two winners in this sphere from three runners in Britain this season. SHARP OBJECT doesn’t have as flashy a pedigree as Mullins’ raider, but the daughter of burgeoning NH sire Diamond Boy (sire of L’homme Presse and Impaire Et Passe) is related to Cheltenham Festival winner Finger On the Pulse. Following her impressive debut, the four-year-old chased home the superbly bred (out of Quevega and a full sister to Facile Vega) and potentially smart Aurora Vega in Listed company, and it would be a surprise if there is anything of that level lurking in the field here. The third has since won easily over hurdles, and a repeat of that effort should see SHARP OBJECT right there.

Nicky Henderson sends dual bumper winner Easy Peasy, who won as her name suggests on stable debut at Plumpton back in September. The form of that four-runner race is little to shout home about, and is actually pretty poor, but she did it nicely and has a nice flat pedigree which will stand her in good stead here. Moving one from powerful yard to another, and Paul Nicholls sends the experienced Larchmont Lass here who got off the mark in bumpers last term at the third time of asking after a couple of placed efforts. She battled on well in desperate conditions at Sandown to get the better of Casa No Mento, and that rival has since won easily on hurdles debut. It is unlike the Nicholls yard to keep one in bumpers, so it is interesting that he sends the five-year-old here rather than embark on a novice hurdle campaign immediately. Mick’s Jet won a big-field bumper over course and distance here in April in dominant fashion, hitting the front early and striding clear to a nine-length success at huge odds. She was disappointing when a well-beaten fourth on seasonal return, but a repeat of that Cheltenham success would put her right in the mix, although trainer Philip Kirby is 0-8 in bumpers so far this term. Of those at a bigger price, another Irish raider in the form of World Of Fortune is interesting and could be slightly overlooked in the market for a slightly lesser known trainer in Liam Kenny. The daughter of Soldier Of Fortune was just denied on debut at Tipperary but got off the mark in fine style next time at Wexford back in May with a comfortable six-and-a-half length success. The second that day, Familiar Dreams, had already finished second in a Listed bumper and the third, Rhaenyra, had finished second in a Grade 3 at Punchestown, so the form reads well.

bettrends Advice:

SHARP OBJECT 1pt WIN @ 9/2 (Various)

 

NAP: SPRINGWELL BAY

NB: GOOD RISK AT ALL