Racing chat - Thursday 12th October

[Sporting Sam]

A big day for racing. 
two superb cards in Ireland at punchestown the last two days and well worth going over those races again. In Britain we have little like it on a Tuesday and Wednesday or during the week and Ireland is just a boat ride away.

Interesting debate about my “run” over the last eleven days on yesterday’s thread.

I’m putting up winners happily for others to take advantage of if they wish to. I was told it was easy and “anyone could do it by simply posting favourites.” (Funnily enough, I haven’t “simply posted favourites” and it hasn’t been “easy”, because it’s not “easy”.

As anyone following, knows, my winners range from 50/1 right down to odds on. When l said “ if it’s easy, then you do it”,  there was a marked change of lilt,  THEY CANT.

“you select up to four runners in races”

that is true but not in many races, and invariably when I do, I come up with the winner.  Last night Port Erin and the day before  in a twenty plus runner handicap the winner at 16/1.

“Profit and loss” is thrown at my selections I’ve answered that. My profit is currently altruistic in that I’m helping others to profit from the winners. The loss is for those that don’t get it.

 In my experience, the physics on Thursdays are exceptional. I’ve put forward a theory as to why that is.

Hopefully my prime objective a tricast will follow and I’m happy to wait.

Big opportunities later today and if I can put up a few winners then  I’ll do so. I’ve reached a target and hopefully can lessen the target 🎯 now and concentrate on improving my own range but as the saying goes “ if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”.

good luck guys.

the curragh 1:15

Wendla

win

bred in the purple and a good run on debut behind an Aga Khan horse. This race has been won last twice by a high draw and well placed here. Related to group 1 winner and Keane on board for top yard.

Saxon Land

each way 

behind an “eye catching” runner last time and collaborative form from that race could transfer here.  In the group horse stall (3). This  one could suprise some loftier runners. The true draw data horse here is porters place and on breeding paddy twomey’s runner could well win but is certain to be winning in due course and will benefit from the run. Certainly worth watching out for under Billy Lee….

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[richard-westwood]

This begins an experiment today and we'll see how it pans out over the next couple months ....my friends have always hassled me to concentrate on the all weather. ... .the consistency of going ....the consistency of track i.e no undulations etc all help to strengthen ratings .....they've always been convinced my greatest ever win will come from the all weather ......so we've sat down and come up with a rock solid plan .......bottom 6 draws in 6f races .....because there's a 1/3 more probability that the winner will come from there ....that all compounds to improve the overall likeliness of picking the winner if the ratings hold of course ......of course it's not infallible ...horses can win from stall 9 etc if they are good enough on day ....but it's time to see whether a huge win is feasibly possible using these settings .......I mean you only have to double up a fiver ...4x ( 4 race winnings) to get about a grand ... 5 races ...5000 to 10000.....so you can see ...."if " there is a bias and if I can exploit that using the ratings then the possibility of predicting 3 4 5 races in row becomes much more likely .....so initially I'm going to keep testing the locks to see how it performs .....if it performs well overall then at some point I'll just go all out for the big win .....a by product of this is if it works the chances of forecasts should increase proportionally too so it's going to be an interesting test period and I'm going to cover forecasts as a given during testing 

Today we have 3 races to look at 

630 chelm 

Only 2 qualifiers (others poor ratings) 

Waiting game 8.0  4.2 

Hiatus.  7.5  14/1 

So I'll try 6pt top rated 2pts hiatus ...2x 1pt forecasts 

Edited October 12, 2023 by richard-westwood