Racing Chat - TUESDAY 12th September

[calva decoy]

6.25 Galway - THANKS MONICA 12/1 eway sky bet ( 4 places ) 

The in form R.Beckett team send this one over in the Listed Mares & Fillies , Mullins Echoes in the Rain worthy favourite , tip more of a whimsical bet than anything else & Sky only bookmaker atm paying 4 places . 👎Out of the first four which saw 50 & 40/1 shots fill the first four .

Edited September 12, 2023 by calva decoy

[kensland]

Catterick. 

Double. 

2.05. Miss Calculations       17/2    unpl

4.50. Highfield Viking            11/4  2nd 

singles &double. 

stk 6.00    rtn 97.00

Double. 

6.25. Galway.Thanks Monica       11/1

3.25. Leicester.  Ciro Dimarzio      11/4    unpl

singles & double. 

stk.6.00    rtn 121.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by kensland

[black rabbit]

Fastman                                      4 55 Gal/                    1/40th of a pt ew    25/1

[Sporting Sam]

A nice early domestic selection in search of winners.

4:45 laytown

DREAM TODAY

Win

A visit to the enchanting coastal setting of Laytown.

This runner is a serial September winner having won on 8th September  twice in recent years including in England under Sadie Osbourne .  Has had to wait for the tides  turning to run today on the 12th but so long as it is in a two week zone it is close enough for the biorhythms to work.

Dream Today won here under Patrick Mullins over seven furlongs off a much higher mark last year.

The drop in trip and grade plus a claimer means he is well above the ceiling for this race and if he takes it all in his stride will be a very tough nut to crack.

The other notable runner here is drawn alongside the main selection and is Army of India.

each way.

this ex mark Johnstone and Julie Camacho runner has run off much higher marks and indeed ran in the Coventry on just second run. There is a strong link coincidentally between the two runners in that Dream Today was ridden to victory last year by a retained Willie Mullins jockey and Paul Townend has his only ride today on army of India. Army of India has all weather experience and has been readied for this run by being lowered in the ratings  by Julie Camacho and has  enjoyed a pipe opener recently at a rain softened navan.

ARMY OF INDIA

Each way

5;35 Perth

Johnson’s blue

win

I love match bets as they are about opinions and very often the book is totally wrong.

one such possibility here as Bella bliss comes over from Ireland and the gig goes to a claiming jockey rather than Sean Bowen.

John McConnell has gone to secure the weight advantage despite already being bottom weight and sacrifices jockey craft here, which means he’s worried.

She look impressive enough on chasing  debut to best junior rattler in a beginners chase across the water. She faces just the one rival on handicap debut and that comes in the form of chase debutant Johnson’s blue.  He’d have been a great selection on blue Monday yesterday, but a day late is soon enough and I had to wait until the last race of the day at Newcastle for the “ coincidence bet in Phoenix Star.

However Johnson’s blue has a fantastic strike rate of 70 % in his last ten runs and looks an out and out chaser in the making.  The summer has likely been spent schooling over larger obstacles. And given a good send off when  last seen 206 days ago when winning a class two hurdle and this handicap debut should suit his free running style and he could go well if getting into a rhythm. Well worth a punt in this two runner head scratcher ,..The non runner top weight was rated 133 well clear of these two and who bears the impact of the absence negatively and positively is difficult to judge but my feeling is that all the advantages of the absence of the top weight will go to Johnson’s blue and that he’ll make the best of being  new top weight here…

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[azzybear]

why chope 12.25 ew France 

[Sporting Sam]

Catterick 1:30

Gift of raj

each way

Let her loose

win

only a five runner field but gift of raj is the only course winner and back from a long break, has run well fresh before. Let her loose has a good strike rate for this jockey in these races and they tend to be more about the jockey/horse partnership than anything else.

[Sporting Sam]

Catterick 2:40

og beachwear and Della 

should fight this out.

both have shown decent speed over longer and seem suited by this trip. The pull at the weights may see the girls go clear of the top weights here.

reverse forecast 

[Sporting Sam]

Worcester 3:00

police academy 

win

has shown arresting form thus far and can take this for the hat trick up five pounds but the profile of most of those leave more questions than answers. Ben Sutton’s claim of seven pounds can keep the winning run in custody.

worcester 3:30

marvel star 

win

Danny Mullins sole ride in England and booked to ride at laytown at 4:45. hope the tardis is  left by the weighing room and kept running .

Has show plenty for Margaret Mullins in Ireland and debuts for new yard and it cannot have been cheap to teleport Danny Mullins  over just to ride him again.

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Leicester 4:00

HAARAR
win

i cannot fully explain free energy etc but the selection receives it in bucketloads here. A very good second at Epsom but a career best second in a class three last year the standout form.

Draw data is forty over the last ten years information and works out precisely on stall 4. Has placed in higher grade but both wins in class 5.

 

[Sporting Sam]

catterick 4:15

MURBIH

win

hasn’t  won since March but has gone despairingly close latest and opportunity could well knock today turned out soon after recent run at Wolverhampton.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Leicester 5:10

moulin bouj

may have to give best to frisky here.

frisky 

win

reverse forecast with moulin bouj

laytown 5:15

samrouge

win

remains 10lb lower than last years course and distance win and connections have done all they can to reclaim this race.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[azzybear]

yester 5.45 purring along 5.55 first revolution 6.05 ta na la 6.15 

[azzybear]

c the bunny run 6.35 ew 

[azzybear]

royal Pippin 6.45 ew 

[Sporting Sam]

5:55

galway draw data 

mecurial

win

has not won since juvenile days for Tom Danscombe and runs here as the new top weight flanked by two non runners. Three year draw data pinpoints stall 8 as the likely winning stall. Has good to soft on career low run here

[Sporting Sam]

Galway 6:55 draw data 8.66

Evans secret

win

war thunder

each way 

war thunder is the draw data runner but it is very close and newcomer evans secret is drawn alongside and is impeccably bred and carries top weight both look like going close here. Non runners in the mix play both of these runners into this.

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

laytown 7:15

Joseph O’Brien runs two in the concluding maidens in Ireland first Up

VEGA MAGNIFICO 

win

rated 98 and a long way clear of this field has to get the toe in and prove it but looking hard to beat 

galway

7;25

deadly nightshade

win

lots of good form around both runners and look like putting in bold bids in both cases

**************

round up

just two winners and a forecast 

dream today

won

laytown’s opener

In the manner of a well handicapped runner he was down in grade and still rated above the handicap level due to jockey’s claim.

vega maginifico

Did a very similar job for Joseph O’Brien in the lucky last and won very easily.

og beachwear and della 

provided a forecast but barely wiped face. 
Johnson’s blue was mounting a challenge when taking a tumble and in reality was under pressure from a good front running winner.

Deadly nightside looked well on top but didn’t ‘press home’  superiority and ‘lost’ at the post, giving best to Aidan O’Brien’s runner.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam