MCLARKE Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Not much going on today so I'll put one up from a successful system I've been using Ripon 2.50 SOUTH SHORE 7/4 Boylesports money back if 2nd to SP favourite I back the 2nd favourite when the favourite won last time out In the last 3 months this is showing a 40 points level stakes profit Bedlam, Brahmin, azzybear and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 toosha 2.00 ew didn't go on the soft ground but today back on good ground seems a bit overpriced to me MCLARKE and Brahmin 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 sheradann 12.48 Dieppe .France The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) I’m still laughing about how Irish racing tolerate Charlie Byrnes after yesterday’s fiasco at Downpatrick. You can call it a jolly old wheeze if you wish but yet again under the auspices of a good touch a horse has come to harm. The game will be up for horse racing in Ireland before long because animal rights will have a case to put it all to bed. Not to say England is much better. newbury 2pm the Irish raider has a look of class rated 96, but looking for queen ridden by Oisin Murphy may be able to at least give her something to think about. A good fourth on debut her dam and sister both won nto and my draw data calculated stall 7 as the winning stall with the favourite alongside in stall 9 a boat trip over a windy Irish Sea is not the ideal prep for an odds on horse who under James Doyle should hold way too much here having been beaten only by Navassa Ireland last time. ( if I recall correctly they both raced alone far side so with a tow from a top horse, the outliers may all been stands side and win or lose here I would not back it with fake money) So Murphy has the draw data on his side and the slipstream effect of a good tow and a birthright of the horse to uphold here. LOOKING FOR QUEEN Each way Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam The Equaliser, MCLARKE, Brahmin and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 36 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Not much going on today so I'll put one up from a successful system I've been using Ripon 2.50 SOUTH SHORE 7/4 Boylesports money back if 2nd to SP favourite I back the 2nd favourite when the favourite won last time out In the last 3 months this is showing a 40 points level stakes profit Very interesting Michael. The race favourite was a 9/1 winner LTO so I wonder if the stats may be showing that if the new race favourite was not favourite and it won LTO and that this may improve the winning strike rate. Also, your selection is an unraced 2 y.o. The trainer has a 74% RTF so good luck MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmin Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Some small stakes interest this afternoon.......good luck all 🤞 New 2.00 Apeeling 33/1 EW b365 Looking for Queen 16/1 EW betfair Toosha 66/1 EW b365 Ripon 2.15 Tele red 5/1 (b365 boost) Unplugged 11/2 King Triton 7/1 EW New 2.30 This time maybe 13/2 EW American tale 10/1 EW (b365 boost) Mitwaa 16/1 EW 2nd b365 4 places New 3.05 Captain Cuddles 3/1 Overnight oats 12/1 EW b365 Change sings 20/1 EW 3rd 22/1 b365 4 places Ripon 3.25 Chumbaa 7/2 WON 5/1 Reflexion Faite 11/2 Ripon 4.00 Origintrail 4/1 Impeller 15/2 EW 3rd Ripon 4.30 Tobetso 4/1 WON 5/1 betfair Cosmas Raj 7/2 Montarajel 10/1 EW ( b365 extra 5th place) 5TH 12/1 2 WINS 🏆 🏆 and 4 EW places .......soooo nice little profit today, all helps toward my blonde racing advisors upcoming 62nd Birthday 👍 Edited August 29, 2023 by Brahmin The Equaliser and azzybear 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: Very interesting Michael. The race favourite was a 9/1 winner LTO so I wonder if the stats may be showing that if the new race favourite was not favourite and it won LTO and that this may improve the winning strike rate. Also, your selection is an unraced 2 y.o. The trainer has a 74% RTF so good luck I don't put much effort into this one, it's only 1 meeting a day and the maximum bet is £20. I just include the data which is available on oddschecker. I am building up data as I go along, currently there are 224 races in my data. Other stats I have from this data are :- Handicaps, +5, non-handicaps -8 Less than 8 runners +15 Class 6 +7 Age 4+ +23 Favourite odds < 3/1 +19 2nd favourite last time not 1st or 2nd +8 2nd favourite odds > 5/1 +17 Overround > 115 + 29 (this one doesn't appear very logical) The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Ripon 4pm catch cunningham Win shallow Hal ( draw data) win Marks choice each way cc Races over the trip for only the third time and as such is an unexposed runner having won off much higher marks. Occupies last years winning stall. Last year’s winner is three stalls along in the extreme stall 10. two year draw data averages out at the bottom weight shallow Hal in stall 5. Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Newbury 4:10 HAARLAND E/W Jockey 2/2 on board RAGOSINA Win could benefit from first time blinkers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: I don't put much effort into this one, it's only 1 meeting a day and the maximum bet is £20. I just include the data which is available on oddschecker. I am building up data as I go along, currently there are 224 races in my data. Other stats I have from this data are :- Handicaps, +5, non-handicaps -8 Less than 8 runners +15 Class 6 +7 Age 4+ +23 Favourite odds < 3/1 +19 2nd favourite last time not 1st or 2nd +8 2nd favourite odds > 5/1 +17 Overround > 115 + 29 (this one doesn't appear very logical) It looks worth pursuing with a 40-point LSP. 🙂 MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Ripon 4:30 tobetsu win won well on final run for yard and eye catching debut bungley each way yossa6133 and The Equaliser 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Worcester 4:40 Ocean's Of Money seen literally Ocean's Of Money and has a hurdles mark of 97 as opposed to chase mark of 69. Backed three of last four runs to no avail but obvious chances if ever making a fist of things from out the handicap Miss Antipova win four consecutive seconds chance may have come and gone but the only likely challenger to easy course and distance winner stumps or slips. It looks between these two and stumps drop down in class for this return race after disappointing at Bangor in a much better contest. Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) ripon 5:00 Mass consumption win looks the part after great run up in class over the classic trip. marzubet aldo looks good here but preference I hope is for mass consumption who looks to have the scope to go forward over this trip Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmin Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) 🏆 Wife's Daily Nap just won, might make top 10 in table, not bad for a lady amateur 👍 Edited August 29, 2023 by Brahmin The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) bellwestown 5:35 Even though I’m not having great day, the draw data at Bellewstown is proving quite accurate. Trying it here using the five year average. works out at 8:2 the top weight that it throws up is a non runner hence three runners come into contention Sweetest rose win sweetest rose drops out of listed company and makes handicap debut here under Colin Keane having previously won a maiden going to be very hard to assess for handicap. monnow valley each way pub talk second top weight Also drawn alongside the pair and the absent top weight is the bottom weight Monnow valley hugeprice and out of the weights I recommend a combination forecast here an aspect of the physics called traverse law comes into play here between the top and bottom weight and is increased as they are drawn together. monnow valley has placed twice and the handicapper has kept a strong hold of his rating and us well worth an each way here Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 17 minutes ago, Brahmin said: 🏆 Wife's Daily Nap just won, might make top 10 in table, not bad for a lady amateur 👍 Well done to her. Is it possible for your wife to have a separate name for posting purposes as it seems very confusing to me sometimes if it is your selection or hers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 A lot to take in with some of my posts but the most scrupulous reader will have been rewarded with a nice free energy winner in 8/1 Sweet reward under Colin Keane and tobetso neither of whom were going to lose once they got into stride. mussleborough 6:00 Loubiere BELLSTARRE BOTH win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Bellewstown 6:10 no draw data available but a non runner to help out in stall 10. Stall 1 Come in come in each way gets an 18lb pull here with beano power BEANO POWER Win jazour the favourite expected to improve on fourth maiden under Colin Keane but my physics preference is for the above two Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Worcester 6:20 Esperti each way recent wind surgery may help and also career low rating here under top jockey. drop in class from recent runs and win a maiden off a mark 6 pounds higher. Sea the clouds win rock solid selection looks likely very hard to beat here given that Oslo has defected now. Beaten over this trip by a subsequent next time out winner . Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Brahmin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Bellewstown 6:45 draw data points strongly to Un Bacio Ancora each way seven years data points to stall occupied by the bottom weight and boosted by the absence of two horses weighted who were also drawn alongside. the physics puts this race firmly in the court of Polar bear win under traverse law add Double jabbed for a combination forecast we hitch give you the top middle and bottom draw most horses seem to struggle on this course tonight and not many getting into it at the end, so physics edges are very strong. The two non runners should have a influence on the outcome here……and these two runners polar bear especially after a 94 day break look the key runners. Obviously had a few problems since last run but Jessica Harrington knows how to play her runners and no headgear for this course winner may be significant. Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Polar bear beaten by a nose giving away a stone to the winner close but no cigar. Musselburgh 6:05 Metric win looks hard to beat as an improving filly even under a six pound penalty Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Bellewstown 7:45 BARNACULLIA winkottyam each way Draw data Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 (edited) Musselburgh 8:05 A shining moon win trailblazer each way draw data selections the favourites may be upstaged here ***************************** trailblazer ran a blinder second at 8/1 Sea the clouds 5/4 a taking winner at Worcester despite the jockey dropping his whip. Looked like he’d struggle as the other two horses were forging on. The jockey steadied his horse and gradually got on top and with the persuader would likely have won by several more lengths. It’s the first bet I’ve described as a “rock solid” selection and as close to a maximum that I’ve given. Sweetest Rose ran on and won with ease at 8/1 tobetsu High confidently ridden and thread way through the field to win well. * hopefully I can join the lucky fifteen crew very soon. Edited August 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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