Racing Chat - Wednesday August 2nd

[The Brigadier]

Day two of Glorious Goodwood and the ITV team are giving us the first four races from the picturesque Sussex course. The official ground is good to soft (soft in places) with a wet forecast, so once again it’s horses that like to get their hooves in that we are looking for. Here are my thoughts on how to beat the bookies today.

 

Goodwood 13:50

We kick off the day with the 1M 4F class 2 Coral Handicap for three year olds only, with a dozen having declared.

Amleto, trained by William Haggas has been installed the favourite in his first handicap. He was last seen twelve weeks ago when running away with a Chester maiden on soft ground from a horse that won on Monday and is stepping up to a mile and a half today. A mark of 89 looks reasonable and he should be thereabouts.

Sir Michael Stoute runs Fox Journey, owned by King Power who’s won handicaps at Newmarket and Newbury from four starts this season. A 5lb rise for his win at the latter track twelve days ago will not help and he has yet to prove he handles soft ground.

John & Thady Gosden saddle a pair of runners in handicap debutant Tony Montana (yet to encounter easy ground) and Inquiring Minds, who bombed out last time and is another one who has yet to encounter cut in the ground.

The Johnston stable have won three of the last nine runnings of this race and Charlie Johnstone saddles four in an attempt to better that record. The one of the quartet who we know handles soft ground well is the Joe Fanning ridden Struth. A soft ground winner at Chester in May he’s run consistently well since including when third in an Ascot handicap. He can form part of the staking plan.

Dual purpose trainer Alan King saddles Westerton, who is another who can play a hand in the finish. Stepping up in trip here he has form on all types of ground and maybe most importantly has the assistance of Ryan Moore.

In an open race I’ll play Struth each way and Amleto win only.

 

STRUTH 1 point each way 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

AMLETO 1 point win 7/2 bet365

 

Goodwood 14:25

A tough looking renewal of the Group 3 Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes with a bumper turnout of sixteen for three year old and upwards fillies and mares. The draw will be important here with seven of the last 8 winners drawn 6 or lower.

Irish challenger Jumbly, trained by Joseph O’Brien is arguably the best horse in the field and this represents a drop in grade for him although stall 12 is not ideal and Ryan Moore will have to have a plan from out that wide which he might well have but at the price I don’t really want to pay to find out.

Saedd Bin Suroor’s White Moonlight comes here in top form having won his last two starts at Musselburgh and Chelmsford in listed company and this represents a step up in grade. He’s not run on soft ground but was a winner as a juvenile on good to soft so maybe he will handle the likely underfoot conditions. A stall of seven looks favourable as well.

John Quinn trains Breege who is drawn low in stall three and holds a definite chance on ground hopefully that she will handle. She was runner up in the Group 2 Prestige Stakes as a two year old over course and distance and also got the silver medal in the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot when chasing home Coppice. She drops a furlong here and in a tough contest is a tentative each way selection.

She’s one of nine three year old fillies in this race with Irish trainer Kieran Cotter’s Matilda Picotte, who finished an 8L third in the 1000 Guineas, an interesting contender but has the widest draw of all in 16 so is overlooked for that reason alone. The highest rated in the field is the Roger Varian trained Olivia Maralda who ran fifth in the Jersey Stakes last time when giving plenty to do by Kevin Stott. She can run well here but was pulled out on her stable debut due to soft ground and the only other time she encountered softish ground was in the 1000 Guineas when 3 1/2L behind Matilda Picotte.

A minefield of a race with draw and ground so important but I’ll chance Breege under Jason Hart each way with additional places.

 

BREEGE 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Goodwood 15:00

Just the eight runners line up for the Jaeger-Lecoultre Molecomb Stakes, a Group 3 contest for two year olds run over the minimum trip of 5F.

The only runner in the race who has shown any form on soft ground is Hugo Palmer’s Hackman who won a Chester maiden in May on soft ground but was 6L behind favourite Kylian last time.

Kylian looks the one to beat having improved to win a brace of races at Newcastle by (4L) and a listed contest at Sandown (by 6L from Hackman). He looks a smart performer but was pulled out on his debut at Newmarket in May due to soft ground and at the price I’ll leave him be.

Royal Ascot winner Big Evs stepped up on his debut run to win the listed Windsor Castle Stakes by a comfortable 3L in June and has to be considered although once again, as with all of these, both his runs came on good to firm ground. With him and Kylian taking a big chunk out of the market here with no evidence that they will handle ease in the ground it’s worth looking for an alternative.

Both Purosangue and Barnwell Boy flopped last time so maybe the Richard Hannon trained Baheer is the value each way play (hoping all eight run obviously). Well backed on his debut at Newbury when finishing runner up to Zulu Chief, he stepped forward 18 days later when taking a novice stakes at the same track again over 6F by 2 1/2L from Aljezur. He drops to the minimum trip today and with the Hannon two year olds amongst the winners in the last week he looks the value especially with the words used by Hannon after his win at Newbury where he stated that “there have been times when he’s worked at home and I thought he could be the best two-year-old we’ve trained but he came here and showed nothing like it first time. He’s always been a hooligan but he’s got a frightening amount of talent and that didn’t surprise me at all”. High praise indeed.

 

BAHEER 1 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Goodwood 15:35

The feature race of the day (and meeting) is the 1M Qatar Sussex Stakes with £1,000,000 guaranteed. A small but select field of six go to post with the very warm favourite being the Aiden O’Brien trained Paddington. He’s been a revelation this season starting off winning a Naas handicap on heavy ground and progressing through the ranks to score in listed company at The Curragh followed by the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes and Coral -Eclipse when stepped up in distance. He’s dropping back to a mile here which wont be an issue and as he acts on any ground will be very hard to beat.

Roger Varian’s Charyn was 4L behind him at Ascot and it’ll be a major shock were he to turn the tables whilst Richard Hannon’s Chindit and French challenger Facteur Cheval have 10lb and 12lb respectively to find with Paddington.

If there is to be one to turn the favourite over then its maybe John & Thady Gosden’s smart filly Inspiral who made a pleasing re-appearance when coming from some way back to finish second (beaten a neck) by Triple Time in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. That was a fine effort and she can push Paddington all the way but with Ryan Moore in the saddle this can go to Paddington who will be at prohibitive odds and is one for the daily acca bet.

 

All odds quoted were available at time of writing.

 

[Tedthewolf]

2pt e/w  5.20 GW- ISLA KAI 12/1 NOT BOG 5places = 4pts Invested