Wimbledon 2023

[CzechPunter]

[delfino]

Muchova or Ostapenko in WTA and Alcaraz on ATP wimbledon grand slam. 

Explanations shortly. 

[delfino]

Ostapenko reminds me Marion Bartoli in 2o13. Extremely powerful hitting of the balls, impossible for the opponents to return such hitting. Of course she is NOT the paradigm of a reliable and consistent player, that's the reason she pays such high to lift the trophy. However, in women tournaments, so many players won grand slams as dark horses! 

Muchova for me, is the most complete player outside the Polish robot. But the Polish robot is NOT so unbeatable on grass, and Muchova was so near to beat her even on clay!

I support Muchova as my favorite player. 

About Alcaraz? Just think that he is a case of a new Nadal. Not so extraordinary good on clay, but SUPER GOOD in all surfaces.

More info soon!

[Swami]

I’ll keep an eye on Mirra’s draw, today lost her service a lot, deserved to lose the 1st set and choked in the second losing 5 straight games to Korpatch, maybe just a bad day, maybe not

[Torque]

52 minutes ago, Swami said:

I’ll keep an eye on Mirra’s draw, today lost her service a lot, deserved to lose the 1st set and choked in the second losing 5 straight games to Korpatch, maybe just a bad day, maybe not

She's not comfortable on grass and she's said as much. That might be something to do with it.

[Swami]

13 hours ago, Torque said:

She's not comfortable on grass and she's said as much. That might be something to do with it.

And still for the bookies she deserves top player’s odds, yesterday on bf you could lay her @1.10/13

[Swami]

2 hours ago, Swami said:

And still for the bookies she deserves top player’s odds, yesterday on bf you could lay her @1.10/13

Andreeva - Wang in the first round, curious to see the odds… imo the Chinese should be fav, like 1.60 line maximum

[Smiles Tennis]

Two bets I like for today at Wimbledon. 

L. Fruhvirtova to beat Martic - 2.54 with Betfair

Svitolina to beat V. Williams - 1.49 with Betfair. 

Martic is very up and down at the moment and Fruhvirtova has had a few matches on grass with wins over Pera and Svitolina so won't be an easy match up for her. 

Svitolina will wear down Venus, she will keep making her play another shot and Venus won't be able to keep running to get the ball back. The only way Venus wins this is in two very quick sets because Svitolina can't find any rhythm early on. 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Most importantly, good luck to everyone!

Cristina Bucsa to beat Kamilla Rakhimova at 1.62 with Bet365

I saw a bit of Bucsa on grass this season, and she looked pretty fine, while Rakhimova has some bad defeats to her name, she played really poorly against Zacarias, for example.

Storm Hunter to beat Xinyu Wang at 2.00 with Bet365

Wang retired from her match against Fourlis, and Hunter comes into this on the back of three wins in a row, so I think there's every chance she's finally going to get one over the Chinese player. At odds against, I'm willing to side with the uninjured and in-form player.

Jaume Munar to beat John Isner at 3.30 with William Hill

This is a really speculative pick, but I like the price. Neither has played on grass so far this season, and Isner is obviously the better grass court player, BUT he's also semi-retired at this point, having played only 12 matches with a 4-8 record this year. He won his 4 matches in Dallas, he's winless otherwise. Munar is at least fit, we know that, and I'm basically betting that this might be enough for an upset.

 

[delfino]

Teylor Fritz to beat Hanfmann is a combo material. Short price around 1.24 but i can't see losing this one. You can not imagine how bad is Hanfmann, he won against Tsitsipas as i tipped but Tsitsipas is a big fraud this period.

Our good contributor Neliovan, informed me that himself is a tennis coach, and that what Tsitsipas is trying with his new one handed backhand may take time, or years to work. Thanks very much, i am not a tennis coach, i am a tennis observer, so i observe what exists now, i can't move to the dark future to observe! And there are NO guarantees in this life. I mean this backhand may work in future, may not work. What i observe now is that Tsitsipas in terrible and fraud. A play boy who change girl friend every week or two. Now he is with Badosa the Spanish tennis player, but it not clear if he has only her or both the Badosa sisters. I am thinking to place a bet on Thiem, but what stops me, is the fact that i didn't see Thiem playing for ages . So i must wait for the second round to attack Tsitsipas, providing that he will pass Thiem

Good luck punters! 

[CzechPunter]

Good win for Munar!

Greetje Minnen (+1.5 sets) to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 2.14 with Unibet

Well, we all know what Ostapenko is capable of, but she can also be terribly shaky, and she was close to losing against Frech for example before Magdalena completely collapsed. Importantly, Minnen looked imperious in the qualifying, and she certainly has the right style for grass with her big serve and big shots. The value is certainly with Minnen here, either on the set handicap or the outright.

Yanina Wickmayer to beat Anna Blinkova at 1.80 with Bet365

Yanina Wickmayer is on an incredible grass court run at the moment, and I can see her taking it even further in the main draw here. Blinkova did get the job done against Lisicki when I last backed her, but she did look a bit shaky here and there, and I'm not the biggest fan of her game style on grass.

[Smiles Tennis]

No time for writes ups tonight sorry, 

Tomorrow I am going for:

Errani to beat Brengle at 2.2 with Betfair

Maria to beat Cirstea at 2.06 with Betfair

J. Bouza Maneiro to beat Kalinina at 4.1 with Betfair

Blinkova to beat Wickmayer at 2.14 with Betfair

 

[CzechPunter]

Viktoria Azarenka to beat Nadia Podoroska 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365

Podoroska had the luck of drawing the incredibly shaky Martincova in the first round, but she'll be up against a tougher challenge here, and I hated her performance against Navarro when I last saw her, that was just dreadful. Azarenka isn't the force she's once been anymore, but this is a complete mismatch, and she could build on her round one performance here.

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 2.28 with Unibet

Kudermetova had a hard time against Kanepi in the previous round, and she seems not to be fully fit to me. If there's any truth to that, she'll find it hard against Vondrousova, who looked very good against Stearns in the first round, producing some real stunners and just outplaying her fairly talented opponent. No reason to have Kudermetova as the fav here imo. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Keys to beat Kartal 2-0 at 1.67 with Bet365

Keys in great form winning the title last week. Bit of rest and now against Kartal who is multiple levels below Keys, in her first MD match here. She won't deal with Keys' serve and will be like a rabbit in headlights. 

[four-leaf]

Margarita Betova who's playing Kaja Juvan is Margarita Gasparyans new name, no idea where's she's going but she's picking up the easy r1 money for now here and there.

[sterziyskii]

Guys what do you all think for Bublik, Wawrinka, Paul against Raonic and Ostapenko? I think Bublik is in good rythm rn. Wawrinka might be a tricky match but Etchevery grass court practice will come at hand. Raonic hasn't played for a long time and I think Paul will advance. Ostapenko seems like a secent bet

[CzechPunter]

They all look good to me, good luck whichever way you decide!

 

[Smiles Tennis]

Svitolina to beat Mertens - 2.36 with Betfair

Mertens is a bit short for me here. She doesn't have any huge weapons, she can be unreliable and Svitolina is in decent form. Although grass isn't her fave surface she's not Trevisan levels of bad on the grass so I see this as more 50/50. 

Collins to beat Bencic - 3.2 with Bet365

Bencic has hardly played recently and will have a tougher match against Collins who is 3-3 on grass at odds over 2.5. Bencic should win but she's a bit short for me so worth opposing. 

[neilovan]

Quite a strange day yesterday to see Korda and Sakkari get beaten. Sakkari with her second 1st round loss at a major in a row.  Looked to be in control and then fell apart against Kostyk.

I do see a day of upsets today.

I think (as Smiles noted) that Svitolina beats Mertens. Bencic beats Collins who has hardly played any on grass.

For me Karatsev is on the comeback. Probably overplayed and burnt himself out for 18 months when he finally cracked the top 70 or so. Guy looked mentally frazzled and was beating himself. He looks far calmer on the court now, and I think he posses a real threat to Rublev.  Not going crazy here, just a small bet on Karatsev win.

 You look at the order of play, and the fare on Centre and #1 court is rubbish. 5 lousy matches. As a spectacle only the Murray v Tsitsipas match deserves it's place. Would you want a ticket for court #1? Not me. 

For me match of the day is Francisco Cerundolo versus Jiri Lehecka. Both excellent, and it is one that can go either way. Nothing to choose between them, and probably the over games is the way to go.

I think Tsitsipas beats Andy Murray. Thiem was a much tougher game, but he showed some fortitude in getting through that.  Age catches up with everyone and a young, good opponent will hurt Andy. I also don't think Murray can pressurize the Tsitsipas backhand as much as a taller player.

I think Fernandez has a good chance against Garcia. She has to keep her focus and composure against a not brilliant opponent. Garcia seems to win but never convincingly.

AS a 'bet the house banker' I would go for Tiafoe v Stricker. Stricker came back from 1-4 down 5th set yesterday to win 7-5 against Popyrin,  and he will be feeling it.

My low priced fav 5 legged bet would be Tiafoe, Muchova, Rybakina, Dimitrov and Ruud which gives about 14 to 10. Muchova just too athletic, Rybakina too good behind her serve, Dimitrov excellent on grass and Ruud very solid.

 

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, neilovan said:

Quite a strange day yesterday to see Korda and Sakkari get beaten. Sakkari with her second 1st round loss at a major in a row.  Looked to be in control and then fell apart against Kostyk.

I do see a day of upsets today.

I think (as Smiles noted) that Svitolina beats Mertens. Bencic beats Collins who has hardly played any on grass.

For me Karatsev is on the comeback. Probably overplayed and burnt himself out for 18 months when he finally cracked the top 70 or so. Guy looked mentally frazzled and was beating himself. He looks far calmer on the court now, and I think he posses a real threat to Rublev.  Not going crazy here, just a small bet on Karatsev win.

 You look at the order of play, and the fare on Centre and #1 court is rubbish. 5 lousy matches. As a spectacle only the Murray v Tsitsipas match deserves it's place. Would you want a ticket for court #1? Not me. 

For me match of the day is Francisco Cerundolo versus Jiri Lehecka. Both excellent, and it is one that can go either way. Nothing to choose between them, and probably the over games is the way to go.

I think Tsitsipas beats Andy Murray. Thiem was a much tougher game, but he showed some fortitude in getting through that.  Age catches up with everyone and a young, good opponent will hurt Andy. I also don't think Murray can pressurize the Tsitsipas backhand as much as a taller player.

I think Fernandez has a good chance against Garcia. She has to keep her focus and composure against a not brilliant opponent. Garcia seems to win but never convincingly.

AS a 'bet the house banker' I would go for Tiafoe v Stricker. Stricker came back from 1-4 down 5th set yesterday to win 7-5 against Popyrin,  and he will be feeling it.

My low priced fav 5 legged bet would be Tiafoe, Muchova, Rybakina, Dimitrov and Ruud which gives about 14 to 10. Muchova just too athletic, Rybakina too good behind her serve, Dimitrov excellent on grass and Ruud very solid.

 

Why can't one of my horses quit when they are injured? MUchova losing 6-1 in the final set to someone she should beat 9 times out of 10. Cannot catch a break with this stuff. 

 

You tell me Ruud, Muchova, Korda and Sakkari are going to lose in the 1st round ... I say Impossible, how much you wanna bet 🤐

Edited July 6, 2023 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Natalija Stevanovic to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 1.80 with William Hill

This is a bet both for Stevanovic, who looks to be in the form of her life, and against Korpatsch, who was absolutely awful at the start of her R1 match. She recovered as the match progressed, but she's been up and down recently, almost not even qualifying, and there's every chance that she'll find it hard to deal with Stevanovic's tricky slices.

Cameron Norrie (-1.5 sets) to beat Christopher Eubanks at 1.63 with Unibet

Over the years, Norrie has grown into a world-class player, and the conditions don't seem to be favoring big serves as much as you'd expect, which should take the sting off Eubanks' biggest weapon. The set handicap looks like a good compromise to me here. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Anastasia Potapova to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.73 with Bet365

Although Mirra might very well be the more talented player of the two, it seems to me that she can still struggle big time on grass, and I didn't exactly like her performance against Korpatsch in the qualifying. She played fairly well in the first round before beating the injured Krejcikova, but I'd still give a fair edge to Potapova, who even had that good run in Birmingham before this event.

[sterziyskii]

Watched Eubanks against Norrie and I think his streak is going to continue against O'Conell

[delfino]

Raining raining every day. My mood is has been destroyed from the beginning. I can't do anything correctly. My tip of 1.24 on FRITZ to beat Hanfmann lasted three days to finish. 

Eubanks is making childish errors. When Eubanks moves to the net, you must pray for him. His selections are simply awful in so many cases.

Norrie nothing special. The match with O' Connel is interrupted i guess.

My little money is on O'CONNEL. 

[sterziyskii]

3 Tiebreaks but no pressure in any of them. O'Connel is such an average player staying around 100 ranking for the whole of his life. Eubanks' serve is such a weapon and is in his best form now. Won't be surprised if he beats Tsitsipas to be honest

[CzechPunter]

Elina Svitolina to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 2.20 with Unibet

I like Svitolina in this spot at odds against. She really managed to get under Kenin's skin in the last match and, even though I did back Azarenka two rounds ago, I don't think that she deserves this hype just because she's managed to beat Kasatkina, who has a puffbal serve and who seemed to have some physical issues as well.

[carina007]

What do you think about Berrettini and Eubanks tomorrow? Possible upsets? Berrettini really has a weapon (serve) on Wimbledon and Eubanks in form of his life. 

Second double I choose Bublik and Shapovalov. Bublik looks very good on grass last two weeks. 
Shapovalov has serve and he is very agressive player, I see him beating Safiulin. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by carina007

[sterziyskii]

5 minutes ago, carina007 said:

What do you think about Berrettini and Eubanks tomorrow? Possible upsets? Berrettini really has a weapon (serve) on Wimbledon and Eubanks in form of his life. 

Second double I choose Bublik and Shapovalov. Bublik looks very good on grass last two weeks. 
Shapovalov has serve and he is very agressive player, I see him beating Safiulin. 

I think that Berettini and Eubanks upsets are expected here. Tsitsipas plays a little bit better than a month ago but his backhand is still questionable. Watched all of Eubanks matches so far and he is dangerous. + he is in form of his life as you said. Berettini played 3 amazing matches so far and has more experience on the grass, I thi k he has great chance. Bublik will be a close match, I like his chances here but it will be a risky one. Shapo should win 

[sterziyskii]

Today I'll go with Shapovalov, Diaz Acosta in Milan Challanger, and Eubanks at 9.70. I really expect an upset with Eubanks on 3.70. Eubanks scoring 73 aces in his last 3 matches is insane. Sometimes he makes bad shot selections but his power and serve are extraordinary.

[Smiles Tennis]

Pegula to beat Tsurenko 2-0 - 1.73 with William Hill

Tsurenko has lost 8/9 against the current top 10 and hasn't won a single set in those eight defeats (3 walkovers). She doesn't have the weapons to trouble Pegula and hit 60 unforced errors in her last match against Bogdan where she was on court for more than three hours. 

Pegula's double play has given her skills at the net and it should be a straight sets win if she turns up. 

 

Azarenka to beat Svitolina - 1.75 with Betfair

Azarenka leads the h2h 5-0 and although most of the matches were played a few years ago, Svitolina was ranked higher for every single one, and in the top 10 for a couple of them. Last time Viki beat her was at the AO in last year and it was 6-0 6-2. 

Azarenka will likely dictate the play and this is where Svitolina comes unstuck. Svitolina will need to be very aggressive which isn't her game although she has been more aggressive in recent weeks. 

Viki has hit more winners than errors every match here, with Svitolina hitting more errors than winners in her last two matches. If Viki starts fast I can see Elina thinking here we go again.