Racing Chat - Saturday 15th April

[The Brigadier]

The final day of three of the Grand National meeting of 2023 and it’s time for the big one with the forty runner Grand National due off at 17:15. The ground is likely to ride on the slow side with the official call as good to soft on the Mildmay course and good to soft (soft in places) on the National course. There’s some fine racing to support the big race and here’s my look at the day’s racing.

 

Aintree 13:45

With the likely absence of Banbridge we only have five runners for today opener and a very warm favourite in the shape of Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon. The grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase should be going the way of the Seven Barrows based favourite. He’s head and shoulders above his opponents on form and will be at very tight odds. JP McManus’s seven year old won three novice chases en route to finishing runner up in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham to Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo. His main opponent today is Laura Morgan’s Notlongtillmay who himself ran a stormer at Cheltenham in finishing runner up in the Turners Novices’ Chase. That puts him within 7lb of the favourite but it will be a big surprise if Jonbon doesn’t win well here under regular rider Aidan Coleman.

Too short to back but one for accumulative bets if that’s the way you want to go.

 

Aintree 14:25

A bumper maximum field of twenty two runners assemble for this valuable 3M class 1 handicap hurdle. Tony Martin’s top weight Good Time Jonny ran out a cosy winner of the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final at Cheltenham having four of these behind him and if none the worse for that effort 30 days ago, under just a 5lb rise, should be competitive again today with Liam McKenna claiming 5lb retaining the ride. Mill Green was back in 3rd at Cheltenham and also filled that same place in this last year. Nicky Henderson’s charge would hold each way claims but is the oldest in the field here and surely will have no improvement to come.

Paul Nicholls’ Outlaw Peter is an interesting runner now stepping back up to three miles. The stable are in good form and he should be competitive here. The Skelton’s West Balboa hasn’t been seen since winning the Lanzarote at Kempton in February under Bridget Andrews and is trying three miles for the first time, another with a chance.

Last year’s victor Party Business is back to defend his title off of a 5lb higher mark and shouldn’t be ruled out also.

A wide open and competitive renewal with maybe the top weight Good Time Jonny still a bit ahead of the handicapper and I’ll chance him.

 

GOOD TIME JONNY 1 point each way @ 13/2 1/5th 12345 William Hill

 

Aintree 15:00

The grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is up next and has attracted fifteen useful novices. It maybe worth giving Paul Nicholls promising six year old Hermes Allen another chance after flopping at Cheltenham 31 days ago. He was a well backed favourite for the Ballymore that day but was soundly beaten back in 6th place some 21L behind the winner Impaire Et Passe. His trainer said he thought the horse was unsuited by the tacky soft ground that day. He looked a horse with immense talent when cantering through the mud to beat You Wear It Well (Cheltenham Festival winner since and re-opposes today) at Newbury in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on New Years Eve.

He’s taking on some useful novices here as one would expect including the Willie Mullins trained Dark Raven who runs in the double green silks of Munir and Souede. He was a fine 6th in the Supreme at Cheltenham and is stepping up in distance today. Only 2lb officially behind Hermes Allen is one of the two Gordon Elliott runners Irish Point. He stayed away from Cheltenham but is a definite player on his best form. If Hermes Allen was coming here straight from his Newbury win he would be pretty short so let’s forgive his one moderate effort and back him to bounce back under Harry Cobden

 

HERMES ALLEN 1 point win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Aintree 15:35

Next up is the 3M 149 yards Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle where we have ten runners facing the starter. This years crop of staying hurdlers seem much of a muchness with just under four lengths covering the first five home in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham last month with Sire Du Berlais a shock 33/1 winner from Dashel Drasher (beaten 3/4L) with Flooring Porter (3 1/2L) and Home By The Lee (3 3/4L) close up behind. Sire Du Berlais also took this prize a year ago at 16/1 and has to be a serious contender again this time around for Gordon Elliott and JP McManus.

In the same ownership is Nicky Henderson’s Champ who missed Cheltenham and as one who has a very good record fresh has to be taken very seriously although he was very disappointing in this contest last year having run at Cheltenham previously. I expect a better run from his this time around coming here a fresher horse. Henderson also has a major player in the only mare in the field in Marie’s Rock who’s connections skipped the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham to run instead in the Mares Hurdle where in a race where there was no early pace took a keen hold and ending up well beaten. She’s stepping up in distance to three miles for the first time today and that may well bring about improvement. She receives the valuable 7lb mares allowance and I’ll take her to take this competitive hurdle contest with a small saver on Henderson’s other runner Champ.

 

MARIE’S ROCK 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill

CHAMP 1/2 point win 8/1 bet365

 

Aintree 16:15

Fifteen face the starter for this valuable class 1 3m 1F William Hill Handicap Chase. It actually doesn’t look as strong as in previous years with four horses racing from out of the handicap. Karl Philippe ran ok at Cheltenham in the Ultima and steps up in trip here which may suit Harry Redknapp’s gelding. Others in which a chance include the first time tongue tied Skelton runner Midnight River who was a bit disappointing at Cheltenham and still has stamina to prove likewise Gary Moore’s Nassalam. One horse I do like is the prolific winner Kinondo Kwetu trained by Sam England and who ran up a sequence of six victories last year rising some 32lb in the process. Following a break he re-appeared in the three runner Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at Ascot in February where he was bitterly disappointing finishing a well beaten last of three. He’s better than that and the fact that he’s had a wind operation and races with his tongue tied down here points to the fact that something wind related was probably the issue at Ascot. He’s won on this Mildmay course before and I’ll chance him here each way with enhanced places.

 

KINONDO KWETU 1 point each way @ 12/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Aintree 17:15

The big one. This years Grand National looks as open as ever and my original ante-post fancy The Big Dog still stands as having a decent each way chance as an out and out stayer. Last year’s third Delta Work also makes my short list having won the X-Country at Cheltenham last time out. The third member of my staking plan rests with Irish challenger Vanillier who ran so well last time. For a full comprehensive look at every runner check out my Grand National preview which is available on the main news site.

 

THE BIG DOG 1 point each way @ 25/1 1/5th 123456 (already advised)

VANILLIER 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 1/5th 123456 bet365

DELTA WORK 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123456 bet365

 

Aintree 18:20

The final race of the exhilarating three day Grand National Festival is the twenty runner 2M 209 yards Grade 2 NH Flat Race. A tough contest with plenty of promising young horses on show. The level is set by the Willie Mullins trained Captain Cody who ran a fine 6th in the Cheltenham bumper (Fiercely Proud well held). Mullins also saddles Blizzard Of Oz for Messrs Souede and Munir who will be ridden by Patrick Mullins following his Cork win last month.

Paul Nicholls has had a blinding season with his bumper horses and his representative here Centara is of interest. He scooted up on his racecourse debut winning by 5L at Taunton and could be useful. Harry Cobden takes the ride. Gordon Elliott sets a poser by saddling a brace of promising unbeaten geldings in the four year old Samui who’s won at Naas in February and Pour Les Filles a winner of an Irish point to point as well as a Leopardstown bumper on Boxing Day.

The race looks wide open with so many unknowns and I suggest stakes be kept to a minimum with maybe a small each way bet on one of the Elliott runners in Pour Les Filles.

 

POURLES FILLES 1 point each way @ 15/2 1/5th 1234 888 Sport

[kensland]

Patent. 

2.45. Yarm. Cresta Cat         22/1       unpl

3.00. Aint. Dark Raven          7/2          fell

5.15. Aint. Gaillard Du Mesnil    11/1     3rd 

stk. 0.25. ew. 3.50.    rtn. 446.61.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 15, 2023 by kensland