Serie A Predictions > Feb 25th - 28th

[StevieDay1983]

The title party is already being prepared for Napoli after the team picked up yet another win this past weekend with a 2-0 win away to Sassuolo. It means that Luciano Spalletti's men are now 15 points clear at the top of Serie A with just 15 league games remaining of the season. Inter Milan, Roma, AC Milan, and Lazio all picked up victories in the last round of games but their recent inconsistent results have allowed Napoli to surge clear and has made backing them with bets a tough call. Juventus picked up a third straight league win in a row which suggests The Old Lady could be hitting some fine form. They are firm favourites to win their Turin derby against Torino this Tuesday. Teams to avoid include Fiorentina, Salernitana, Spezia, Sampdoria, and Cremonese. Which bets are you backing for these matches?

[malabgd]

US Lecce vs Sassuolo Calcio

2023-02-25T20:45+01:00

 

US Lecce

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Dermaku (1/0 d), Pongracic (9/0 d)

Suspended: Di Francesco (23/1 f)

 

Sassuolo Calcio

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Toljan (19/0 d), Muldur (1/0 d)

Suspended: Laurienté (17/4 f, 2nd top scorer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics

US Lecce scored at least one goal in 91% of home games.

71% chance that both US Lecce and Sassuolo Calcio will score in this game.

79% chance that there will be at least 1 goal in the first-half.

53% chance that there will be at least 2 goals in the first-half.

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Lecce vs Sassuolo

This season, Lecce have a 73% undefeated at home while Sassuolo have a 50% losing. In the upcoming game, I believe Lecce will not lose to Sassuolo. Additionally, Lecce and Sassuolo both saw four of their most recent five games end in over 2.5 goals when bet365 set O/U first odds of 2.5. The total goals is anticipated to be more than two.

 

Lecce   @ 2.60

Over 2/2.5  @ 1.92

Lecce +0  @ 1.80

[Mrsha]

Roma -3/4 @1.97 & o2.25 @1.98 / 1.25 units stake on the hcap bet
Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.87 or -1 @2.21; o2.25 @1.93
Model +value: yes, VERY strong for hcap
Significant team news: Roma's key cb Smalling is suspended; cf Abraham back in the squad
Note: Still winless after 23 rounds, Cremonese's hopes for survival are really slim, but they won't give up just yet, and they've shown plenty of fighting spirit and good attitude in recent weeks. Unlike Elche in La Liga, who are also in terrible position, but are deservedly labeled as one of the worst teams to have ever played in La Liga, Cremonese were quite unlucky in early Serie A rounds, often playing well without being sufficiently rewarded (at one stage, after some 7-8 rounds, they have topped the league in number of shots that hit post/bar); and as it usually happens, with consistently bad results the confidence levels have gone down, and relegation to Serie B is now basically inevitable. We still expect them to double their points tally until the end of a season, but most of those pts are likely to be won against teams who are in no-mans land in mid-table, without clear incentive and motivation for European places or battle against relegation. Roma are in very good position to win UCL spot for next year, they are also through to the EL 1/8 finals after beating Salzburg in previous round, and in another piece of good news, they welcomed back cm Wijnaldum a couple of weeks ago, who was one of their star summer signings. Wijnaldum has been out for a while (injured in early Aug), but he has made 4 appearances off the bench in Roma's last 4 games, and he is expected to start tomorrow. This is like a new signing for Roma. Striker Abraham is fully back after an eye injury, he can play without a protective mask; and with Dybala and Pellegrini also fully fit, the only guaranteed starter who is unavailable for tomorrow is cb Smalling. Roma's schedule in next few weeks is very difficult (they have Juve, Sassuolo and big Rome derby v Lazio in the league, with EL games v Sociedad sandwiched in-between); they will probably have to rotate a bit and choose their priorities, but they will go with their best 11 tomorrow, after having a full 4 days of rest since their last match (good 2-0 win v Salzburg on Thu). The visitors could also have a small revenge-factor as extra motivation, since Cremonese beat them in 1/4 finals of Coppa Italia a month ago - both teams played with a weakened lineups, but it was still a surprising 2-1 Cremonese win in Rome (though it was quite lucky overall), with hosts set as heavy favs before the match (key players Dybala and Abraham have entered the pitch in the 2nd half, but it was to no avail). Ok weather conditions, we est Roma 62.5-63% to win, and would've taken the hcap pick with 1.5 units at this price, if not for value on TG, which is also worth a shot at current price, with est TG 2.60-2.65; so we'll go with 1.25 units on hcap and standard 1 unit for TG. Total of 2.25 units risk on this type of match may look high, but it's perfectly valid in our eyes, the numbers and the current situation and mood in/around two clubs support it; and while we need Roma to score 2+ goals to have a chance to win money on this match, we need them only to score 1 to lower our risk to 1.75 units; and they will certainly get quite a few chances against a dodgy Cremonese defence, both from open play and set-pieces.