Racing Chat - Saturday 19th November

[The Brigadier]

A great days racing in store with the ITV cameras dispatched to Ascot and Haydock where the feature race at the latter track has attracted the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard. The star on show at Ascot is the unbeaten Constitution Hill who will be hard to beat. The ground will ride soft on both courses. Here’s my thoughts on the seven races.

 

Haydock 1.50

A disappointing turnout of only four once again for this 2m 5F 127 yard class 2 graduation chase that was won last year by the smart Bravemansgame. We’ve a short priced favourite again this year in the Paul Nicholls trained Hitman who is officially rated 10lb, 15lb and 16lb superior to his three rivals. He doesn’t have a very good win record having been placed on his six starts since his last win in a three runner Newbury novice chase at Newbury back in March of 2021 but this really is his to lose. He comes here on the back of a good second in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree and with conditions to suit is at prohibitive odds to back. Nick Kent’s stable star Erne River makes his seasonal debut and maybe the one to chase him home ahead of last years runner up Itchy Feet in the care of Olly Murphy and Donald McCain’s Minella Drama.

 

Ascot 2.05

A poor turnout of five have declared for this grade two Chantelle Pharma 1965 Chase which is likely to become three with Hitman likely to run at Haydock and Do Your Job declared to run here on Friday. That’s leaves a very short price about last year’s Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse who on official ratings has 5lb in hand of Saint Calvados who is now in the ownership of David Maxwell and trained by Paul Nicholls and 14lb in hand of Evan Williams’ Coole Cody. The favourite’s trainer Venetia Williams has now gone 33 runners and 209 days since her last winner and for anyone taking a skinny price about L’Homme Presse has to be a major issue. If forced I would play small on Saint Calvados who is chaser of ability but it would be more that I wish to take the short priced favourite on with his connections badly out of form.

 

SAINT CALVADOS 1 point win @ 17/2 BetVictor

 

 

Haydock 2.25

A decent sized field of fourteen go to post for this years renewal of the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle run over a stamina sapping 3M 58 yds. Top weight is carried by recent easy Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar trained by master trainer Charlie Byrnes and should run well though 12 stone in very soft ground will not be easy and he’s certainly not as well handicapped over hurdles as he was on the flat and he’s overlooked. Harry Fry’s runs his smart novice Might I and he looks a definite player IF he says the three miles (he’s yet to race beyond 2M 4F)He adores the mud and bumped into the smart sorts Constitution Hill, Jonbon and Three Stripe Life last season so has to be part of my staking plan in this competitive race. Dan Skelton was talking up his mare Get A Tonic earlier in the week stating that he is ‘quite confident she will be competitive’. Sam Thomas’s Good Risk To All had Wholestone and Ailie Rose 5L behind when winning on his re-appearance at Carlisle three weeks ago and has to prove his stamina upped half a mile here. In fact the runner up Wholestone is 6lb better off for a beating of just under 5L and it wouldn’t shock me were he to turn that form around at a bumper price of 20/1+ on ground he loves. The best outsider to me is Kim Bailey’s smart chaser Imperial Echo who lost his form completely last season and reverts to hurdles here off of a handicap mark 12lb lower than his fencing one. His trainer reported that he he’s been operating on since last season when he was found to have a kissing spine. If back to somewhere near his best he’s a very big price. Wakool was mightily impressive when winning on his seasonal re-appearance at Ayr and unlike a few of these has no questions to answer regarding trip as he’s an out and out stayer and Nick Akexander’s grey should run a big race. A tough call but it’s Might I and Wakool for me each way with enhanced places.

 

MIGHT I 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5 12345

WAKOOL 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

This five runner 2m 31/2F Coral Hurdle features the return of the most exciting horse in training in Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill. Unbeaten and mightily impressive in three starts in his first season hurdling, impressing with each of his wins at Sandown twice and the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival by a staggering 22L from stable mate Jonbon (impressive chase winner earlier in week). He really does look the real deal and there will be some very long faces at Seven Barrows were he not to win this. This is a step up in trip for him but that shouldn’t be an issue at all (finished runner up in a 3M point to point). He’s officially 12lb and upwards superior to his four rivals and this is a race to watch and savour with no betting interest needed.

 

Haydock 3.00

Five smart chasers have declared for today’s feature race The Betfair Chase run over 3m 1F 125 yards. Last year As Plus Tard took this race apart coming home 22L to the good from Royale Pagaille ending the season with a 15L success in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. His trainer Henry de Bromhead stated on Racing TV on Thursday that the horse is very very well and will be hard to beat. The only negative is that he’s unproven on heavy ground if the ground did go that way. Second favourite Protektorat was just under 18L behind A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup but can chase him home today having had his wind operated on since. Eldorado Allen and Frodon look out of their depth but the eleven year old Bristol De Mai has won this race three times out of the last five years and will love very deep ground. His track record at the Lancashire track reads 111121P2 and were the ground to become bottomless he’s the one who could upset the favourite. A no bet race but an intriguing one none the less with the re-appearance of the defending Cheltenham Gold Cup victor.

 

Ascot 3.15

With so many small fields and short favourites today it’s nice to have a nine runner class 2 handicap chase run over 2m 1F to get our teeth into. Top weight Edwardstone was the top two mile novice chaser last season and was pulled out at the eleventh hour at Cheltenham last Sunday because of the drying ground but there will be no issues today. This is a tougher start to the season mind for Alan King’s stable star and it won’t be easy giving weight away on soft ground to some smart handicappers. At the respective odds I’ll be looking elsewhere for some value. Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki is receiving 10lb from Edwardstone and on two pieces of form from last season should put him in the mix although he does have to put a poor seasonal re-appearance behind him. Thyme White had Frero Banbou and Before Midnight back in second and third respectively over course and distance three weeks ago and with the runner up now 7lb better for just under 5L and the softer ground in his favour Frero Banbou could come out the best of the trio although the stable form is of concern. Harry Fry’s Boothill is a lightly raced chaser who did it well in a four runner handicap at Newton Abbot last time and this will be tougher. The horse I like is Emmet Mullins’ bottom weight So Scottish who comes here chasing a four timer following wins at Kilbeggan, Tipperary and Carlisle with the last two successes coming in novice chases. He could be well treated and getting 26lb from Edwardstone looks the bet.

 

SO SCOTTISH 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Haydock 3.35

We finish Haydock’s card off with a class two 3M 1 1/2F handicap chase with a dozen staying chasers lining up. The race has an open look about it with my preference being for the Richard Hobson trained Lord Du Mesnil who has fallen to a handicap mark 3lb lower then when winning the Grand National Trial here in February 2021. He ran well on his seasonal re-appearance when chasing home the well backed Le Milos at Bangor ten days ago and rides this track really well winning three of his six starts here. There is however many dangers including Nicky Richard’s Houston Texas who will love the track and is an out and out stayer who comes here chasing a four timer having risen 19lb for those victories. He may still have more to give. Fontaine Collonges is up 10lb for his victory last time out but the mare’s trainer Venetia Williams is on a long losing sequence. Musical Slave owned by JP McManus and trained by Philip Hobbs ended last season in excellent shape winning two handicaps (including over course and distance) prior to a good second to Hewick in Sandown’s bet365 Gold Cup. If ready he could run a race. With fitness guaranteed and the prospect of an uncontested lead the front running Lord Du Mesnil is the one I like each way with enhanced places.

 

LORD DU MESNIL 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

 

 

[black rabbit]

Fredo Banbou   3 15 Asc/       1/20th of a pt win  10/1

Might i      2 25 Asc/     1/10 th of a  pt  win       5/1

Edited November 19, 2022 by black rabbit

[richard-westwood]

225 hay 

Good risk it all   8.8 5/1 

Botix has   8.5 12/1 

Wholestone   8.1 25/1 

I'll try 5pt ew top 2 here 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

110 ling 

Kirilenko   8.4  2/1 

Rose Barton    8.1 14/1 

10pt win top rated ....5 pt ew Rose 

 

[richard-westwood]

220 ling 

Bang on the bell 8.0 13/2 

The defiant     7.7  8/1 

These 2 look good ew value I'll try 5pt ew both 

[kensland]

Lingfield. 

Double. 

2.55. Golden Chain.    9/2   4th 

3,30. Sweet Fantasy     13/2   2nd

Good luck all. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 in bold

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Lingfield	11.35	Come On Girl	3.50
Huntingdon	0.15	Thunder Flash	100.00
Punchestown	0.30	Willywampus	100.00
Huntingdon	0.48	Volkovka	2.50
Punchestown	1.03	Barnacullia	25.00
Ascot	1.30	Terresita	3.50
Lingfield	2.20	Pop Dancer	5.50
Haydock	2.25	Gentleman At Arms	25.00
Ascot	2.40	Constitution Hill	0.22
Ascot	3.15	So Scottish	4.50
Lingfield	3.30	Lasting Legacy	14.00

[Zilzalian]

Sat here thinking, if thats the best that the racing world can put on for the viwers on a saturday the Game really is in trouble. Trainers train horses to run, one moment they are moaning about good, good to firm ground the next moment they wont run them on soft and, always moaning about prize money but they win nothing stood in a bloody stable but the owner still pays the bill. This fixture list Flat and Jumps needs ripping apart and sooner rather than later.

[calva decoy]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Sat here thinking, if thats the best that the racing world can put on for the viwers on a saturday the Game really is in trouble. Trainers train horses to run, one moment they are moaning about good, good to firm ground the next moment they wont run them on soft and, always moaning about prize money but they win nothing stood in a bloody stable but the owner still pays the bill. This fixture list Flat and Jumps needs ripping apart and sooner rather than later.

What's jumps racing ???

It's glorified bumper racing these days with literally every day fences / hurdles omitted for sun , rain , wrong kind of grass , when I have a bet ( a contract between myself & a bookmaker ) the contract is on a sporting event that is being falsely advertised by be it The Jockey Club / ARC or whoever owns the course so by breaking trading standards of advertising 8 hurdles but only running 4 they are in breach of trading standards & myself & the bookmaker should surely be do compensation from the course(s) breaching contracts .

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

What's jumps racing ???

It's glorified bumper racing these days with literally every day fences / hurdles omitted for sun , rain , wrong kind of grass , when I have a bet ( a contract between myself & a bookmaker ) the contract is on a sporting event that is being falsely advertised by be it The Jockey Club / ARC or whoever owns the course so by breaking trading standards of advertising 8 hurdles but only running 4 they are in breach of trading standards & myself & the bookmaker should surely be do compensation from the course(s) breaching contracts .

It really annoys me when this happens and I also feel I’ve been robbed. When you get a load of hurdles/fences omitted it effects the whole make up of that race. Something needs to be done about it because it’s not right. 

[Villa Chris]

12.40 Haydock  No Cruise Yet 9/1

1.15 Haydock Stainsby Girl 12/1(Overpriced imo ) has some solid form 

2.25 Haydock Botox Has 11/1 Tough race with some stepping up in trip but selection has the class and has a decent claimer on board to lighten the load. Money back if 2nd 3rd 4th 

3.35 Haydock Lord Du Mensil 4/1 can’t get away from him in this. Some others of big interest , but he ran really well last time out, on a winning mark, and is usually a 150+ horse at Haydock in the mud . Needs to get into a rhythm though. 
 

3.15 Ascot Amoola Gold 28/1 ew 4 places. You need to pretty much ignore his last 3 runs , although he may come on for his reappearance run lto, he did run poorly though and he’s much better than that. Runs off 140 at a course he normally goes well at. At that price and with his form he’s an ew bet. If he fails to show here today I won’t think about  backing him again unless he goes down in class . 

5 points each selection 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Villa Chris

[Ryanpete]

Kim Wexler 2.20 ling 5/1

Edwardstone 3.15 ascot 3/1 

 

Good luck guys ?

[calva decoy]

22 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

It really annoys me when this happens and I also feel I’ve been robbed. When you get a load of hurdles/fences omitted it effects the whole make up of that race. Something needs to be done about it because it’s not right. 

You should be able to get your full stake money back prior to the race starting , I'm now trying to avoid jumps meets for betting purposes other than bumper races where today I've got a " free " £5 bet from bet365 at Ascot where I've backed each way at 66/1 Time To Breeze in the bumper at 3.50 as Marc Goldstein has great record ( mainly at Plumpton & Fontwell ) of landing & placing big price horses my only UK bet today , some US later when priced .

With regards to @Zilzalian remarks about prize money , ok , not jumps meets but 

600 Wolverhampton ( 2 year old maiden ) winners prize money £3,726 

646 Aqueduct ( 2 year old maiden ) winners prize money $57,550 

955 Woodbine ( claiming race ) winning prize money $70,182 

bonkers , the difference .

Edited November 19, 2022 by calva decoy

[cannotbebeat]

2.55 Lingfield - Golden Chain 4/1

5.30 Wolverhampton - Milbanke 7/1

Good luck all CNBB.

[yossa6133]

Third Time Lucky 3:15 Ascot (12/1). Made mistakes at key times on his reappearance at Exeter but 12/1 seems an over reaction here, had some top notch form last season and looked one to follow for me.

 

Never landed a blow ?

Edited November 19, 2022 by yossa6133

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, yossa6133 said:

Third Time Lucky 3:15 Ascot (12/1). Made mistakes at key times on his reappearance at Exeter but 12/1 seems an over reaction here, had some top notch form last season and looked one to follow for me.

This race is giving me most to think about today and your selection is one who’s giving me an headache . I don’t particularly rate the horse that much, definitely not in graded company anyway. I’ve thought he may do better in handicaps, but he’s on a high mark in a race like this. If he sorts his jumping out he could go close . Need to decide my selection in this . Also Amoola Gold is tempting . You need to ignore his last 3 runs , but dangerously handicapped at a course he likes and is 25/1 .

[Tedthewolf]

18 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

This race is giving me most to think about today and your selection is one who’s giving me an headache . I don’t particularly rate the horse that much, definitely not in graded company anyway. I’ve thought he may do better in handicaps, but he’s on a high mark in a race like this. If he sorts his jumping out he could go close . Need to decide my selection in this . Also Amoola Gold is tempting . You need to ignore his last 3 runs , but dangerously handicapped at a course he likes and is 25/1 .

I'm on Amooola 33's seems way to big worth an e/w shot.  I really like Brinkley at haydock pipe horses are in fine fettle  unliike my tipping !!!

[Villa Chris]

40 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

I'm on Amooola 33's seems way to big worth an e/w shot.  I really like Brinkley at haydock pipe horses are in fine fettle  unliike my tipping !!!

Too big to ignore . If he doesn’t turn up fair enough , but I’ll take a chance he does at that price . Brinkley was also right up there on my ratings along with several others. Tough race to nail . The favourite has got a feather on its back and was up there too. 
 

I’m not doing too well myself at minute. Close calls but winners not coming in . Was + 80 about a month ago now nearly -80 ?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

This is how the 315 ascot came out on computer 

Frere bambou   8.7  6/1 

Third time lucky  8.5  12/1 

Before midnight   8 3 

Weird result ....fav nowhere in sight but I'll try 5pt wins top 2 for a bit of fun 

[azzybear]

snake roll 12.10 

[azzybear]

find the time 1.15'

[azzybear]

wyn house 12.48

[azzybear]

cruelly de vill 12.05 

[Villa Chris]

26 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

This is how the 315 ascot came out on computer 

Frere bambou   8.7  6/1 

Third time lucky  8.5  12/1 

Before midnight   8 3 

Weird result ....fav nowhere in sight but I'll try 5pt wins top 2 for a bit of fun 

Very similar to mine . Favourite was also up there though . 

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Lucky 15.

8.00. Eagle eyed Freddie     9/2

8.30. Eye of the Water    11/4

4,30. Eagle Court        7/2

6,00, Skyblue Expert   9/4

Good luck all. 

[EviL ZippY]

35 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

This is how the 315 ascot came out on computer 

Frere bambou   8.7  6/1 

Third time lucky  8.5  12/1 

Before midnight   8 3 

Weird result ....fav nowhere in sight but I'll try 5pt wins top 2 for a bit of fun 

stuck Frere on last night, good to know the computer agrees ?

shame there's a R4 now tho 

[Villa Chris]

Constitution Hill not running. Surely he’s not that fragile . 

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

HAYD	2.25	Good Risk At All	4/1
ASCO	3.15	Thyme White	11/2
HAYD	3.35	Lord Du Mesnil	11/2

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selections

Huntingdon	1.23	Armchair Farmer	8/13
Ascot	2.05	L'Homme Presse	2/5

[The Equaliser]

1.10 Lin Queen Of Burgandy 0.50 ew at 30/1 and Ellade 0.50 ew at 30/1

1.15 Hd Cheddleton 3 TBP 1 pt at 4.4

2.25 Hd Might I 0.50 win at 4/1 and Botix Has 0.50 win at 10/1 Then @richard-westwood's top 2 in a 0.50 reverse forecast. poss  20.46 or 23.77 .Looked at Sportsbook on this and the odds on offer for a reverse forecast look like rubbish

3.15 Asc Fredo Banbou 0.50 win at 13/2 @black rabbitand Third Time Lucki @yossa61330.50 win at 11/1.  @richard-westwood0.50 reverse forecast on these poss return of 31.65 or 35.68

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At least Chedderton 3rd for a place win

3.35 Truckers Lodge 1 pt win at 7.4 (saver bets of 0.5 win at 5/2 on Houston Texas and 0.5 win on Fontaine Collonges at 4/1) Can't lose can I?

9 points staked

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RESULTS UPDATE

Two winners and a placed bet.  Pity that Good Risk It All blundered and could only manage 6th instead of 2nd.  A small profit of 3.33 on the day.  This makes my MTD -29.16 and YTD -240.90.  I couldn't find a Trixie today.  Should have put Villa Chris's selections in one ? 

Edited November 19, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE