Arc de triomph Sunday 2nd October

[richard-westwood]

What a difficult race to rate .....I've taken the bottom 8 draws of which 11 of the past 15 placed horses qualified and rated then thus .....

Luxembourg    9.0  4/1 

Vadeni          8.9  10/1 

Alpinista     8.9   11/2 

Westover    8.3 

Do deuce    8.2 

Deep bond   8.0 

Mendocini    8.0 

Al hakeen   7.9 

Luxembourg beat vadeni last time although there's a,possibility that vadeni could do better over further but pedigree doesn't suggest that but ew possibility......Luxembourg ran on strong that day and last ran leop which is a plus  and home reports are he's training well so worthy fav .....

Alpinista is unknown quantity ....ground might be against him as currently heavy ish.....but doesn't know how to lose so if there 2f out then will be tough to pass ....overall ....there are soft ground d specialists like last year's winner ....but he's drawn in car park  ....so I'll try 10pt wins Luxembourg and alpinista at 4/1 and 11/2 and 1pt rev forecast.....vadeni could be a danger if stays this time 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by richard-westwood

[calva decoy]

Only 4 winners from the last 20 renewals have came from a double figure draw two from stall 14 & two from 15 , I'd fancy a home bred winner but bit of a dart job .