NFL - Week 3

[PercyP]

NFL Week 3 Predictions

After a terrible set of results in week 2, I am keen to get back to normality.

(1) Dallas to win against the moneyline @ 6/5

Nobody could have foreseen the Giants standing at 2-0, but overall the Giants are only an average team. Cooper Rush stepped in and propelled Dallas to a win over the Bengals sacking the QB six times. Dallas certainly boss this fixture winning 9 of the last 10 meetings.

(2) Saints to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11

I like the Saints and whilst they lost at the weekend to Tampa they were missing Alvin Kamara. If he plays on Sunday the Saints will win. The Panthers 0-2 have struggled to win against easier opponents and the Saints defence will contain Baker Mayfield.

(3) Kansas City Chiefs to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11

Without Pitman and with Ryan struggling the Colts are not up to keeping up with the impressive Chiefs.

(4) The Ravens to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11

The Ravens let me down this weekend. They were very impressive prior to the Dolphins historic comeback. I still think they are one of the best teams in the NFL. The Patriots offence is struggling.

(5) 49ers to win against the moneyline @ 4/5

Russell Wilson has struggled against the Texans and Seahawks. The 49ers will be hunting him. Jimmy G will be up for it.

Bet: Following Harry’s wise advice

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[PercyP]

(6) Tampa Bay to win ATS - 2.0 points @ 10/11

The Packers looked impressive against the Bears. The Buccs are another level.

(7) Rams to win ATS - 3.5 points @ 10/11

The Super-Bowl Champs should start getting back to their elite level. Cardinals can’t give the Rams a start.

(8) LAC Chargers to win ATS - 7.0 points @ 10/11

If Justin Herbert plays I can’t see the Jags keeping up with the impressive Chargers.

(9) Bengals to win ATS - 4.5 points @ 10/11

The Super Bowl runners up have lost both games by a field goal. If they can protect Joe Burrow the Bengals will have too much firepower for the Jets.

(10) Vikings to win ATS - 6.0 points @ 10/11

The Vikings looked like a Super Bowl team in week 1, but were humbled by the Eagles in week 2. They will need to play better against a Lions team who keep fighting. The one stat I like is the Vikings have defeated the Lions in 8 of the last 9 fixtures between the teams. However the Lions did win the last match.

Bet

10 x 0.5 point trebles

5 x 1.5 point 4 timers

2.5 point accumulator

15 points staked

[harry_rag]

Chubb my likely bet for later (a shade of odds on with the bookies, odds against on the exchange). 2.1 or better will suffice.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Chubb my likely bet for later (a shade of odds on with the bookies, odds against on the exchange). 2.1 or better will suffice.

Matched at 2.1. 

[MinellaWorksop]

One I like the look of today is:

Seattle Seahawks 1.86 Bet365

A fascinating matchup involving the Seahawks versus the Atlanta Falcons. The Seahawks lost last time out against San Francisco 49ers, but the time before that exceeded expectations by beating the Denver Broncos as underdogs in a close fought victory. The Falcons will be no pushover as although they have lost both games so far, they have done so battling valiantly. In fact, they finished with a rattle against the Rams. Not your top of the table clash though for me a truly fascinating matchup awaits and I will be excited to see how it all plays out.

[harry_rag]

Just done the prices for the early games and taken one bet right away as it's such a standout.

McCaffrey (Carolina) at 9/5 Betway.

There's guaranteed value here; either the 9/5 is too big or the spreads have over-egged his TD minutes price by offering him at 30 to sell (possibly a bit of both).

The spread price implies he's a clear odds on shot who would be value at evens or better. Most firms have him a shade of odds on with a bit of evens or 11/10 knocking about.

Happy to back him at price that implies he has around a 36% chance of scoring a TD.

[harry_rag]

Fournette (Tampa Bay) at 6/5 with Fred.

Trimmed to 11/10 under the sheer weight of my tenner! Only noticed he's questionable though expected to start after I'd placed it. Spreads suggest he should be a shade of odds on, decent enough at the price taken though would have been happier if he wasn't carrying a bit of an injury.

[harry_rag]

2 out of 3 this week, Chubb followed by a couple of losses yesterday.

Barkley the closest to a bet tonight but the odds looking no better than fair so I'll leave it alone. That's usually a guarantee of a winner if anyone is so inclined! 

[PercyP]

NFL Week 3 Results

Another disappointing week, but an air of optimism as picks went closer.

4 winners plus 49ers, Buccs and Vikings all go close.

 First bets W2 L3 – Staked 30 points, lost 30 points.

(1) Dallas to win against the moneyline @ 6/5 – Won – Dallas win23-16

Dallas certainly boss this fixture winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Make that 10 from 11.

(2) Saints to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11- Lost – Cardinals win 22-14

I like the Saints and whilst they lost at the weekend to Tampa they were missing Alvin Kamara. If he plays on Sunday the Saints will win.  Kamara was a shadow of the player we all know and love just 61 yards rushing plus he lost a ball early in the game resulting in a Cardinals touch-down. Saints are under performing.

(3) Kansas City Chiefs to win ATS -6.5 points @ 10/11- Lost – Colts win 20-17

Colts are not up to keeping up with the impressive Chiefs. Nothing went right for the Chiefs this week. A fake field goal, a missed field goal and a missed extra point, cost the Chiefs seven points which should have put the game well out of the reach of the Colts who scored late in the game to achieve a surprise victory.

(4) The Ravens to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11- Won - Ravens back on track 37-26

I still think they are one of the best teams in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is playing like a man possessed. Four touchdowns through the air, one on the ground and 107 rushing yards.

(5) 49ers to win against the moneyline @ 4/5 – Lost – 49ers lose by a point 11-10

Russell Wilson has struggled against the Texans and Seahawks. The 49ers will be hunting him. For the 49ers this game was there for the taking.

Second Bets W2 L3 15 points staked, lost 15 points.

 (6) Tampa Bay to win ATS -2.0 points @ 10/11- Lost – Packers win by 2

The Packers looked impressive against the Bears. The Buccs are another level. The Buccs offensive line was totally banged up (top three wide receivers injured). The defence was impressive but even GOAT Tom Brady could not snatch victory at the end.

(7) Rams to win ATS -3.5 points @ 10/11- Won – Rams win 20-12

The Super-Bowl Champs should start getting back to their elite level. The Rams defence did not allow a touchdown. Cam Akers may also be back to his best, which is ominous for all the other nfl teams.

(8) LAC Chargers to win ATS – 7.0 points @ 10/11- Lost – Jags cause major upset 38-10 away from home

If Justin Herbert plays I can’t see the Jags keeping up with the impressive Chargers. He played, but was obviously injured. This impacted the whole team, which lacked confidence and was out of sorts.

(9) Bengals to win ATS – 4.5 points @ 10/11- Won – No problems for the Bengals 27-12

The Bengals will have too much firepower for the Jets. Finally the Bengals pick up their first win of the season albeit against the Jets.

(10) Vikings to win ATS – 6.0 points @ 10/11- Lost – Vikings win game 28-24 but fail to beat the spread

The one stat I like is the Vikings have defeated the Lions in 8 of the last 9 fixtures between the teams. Make that 9 from 10, but big mistakes including two missed field goals and a lost fumble in the third quarter prevented the Vikings covering the spread.

Week 3 Record W4 L6 Staked 45.00 returned Nil for an overall loss of 45.00 points.

YTD Record - Total selections 30 - W12 L18 staked135.00 returned 36.80 for an overall loss of 98.20 points.