Racing Chat - Sunday 11th September

[maxironchin]

First time starting a topic here...

15.20 Doncaster

Kinross 2pt Win

I'm ruling out the 3YOs in this as likely a more experienced horse will win this. The selection beat both Al Suhail and Sacred recently in a race he won. He should be able to carry the extra 3lbs penalty he got for that win. Others in the race have less convincing form. A few of the runners are good on softer ground and Kinross is amongst them, so no disadvantage to him as the forecast is for more rain.

15.55 Doncaster

Hoo Ya Mal 2pt Win

There are four or five in this race with decent chances. The selection, though, has proven form at Doncaster - beaten by just a nose in a C1 last year. Also has good form over the St. Ledger distance.

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by maxironchin

[The Brigadier]

A bumper afternoon’s racing on Sunday with ten races on ITV’s schedule. The ground in Ireland at The Curragh will be soft and pretty testing whilst in Yorkshire the ground will be on the slow side with the current going description reading good to soft (soft in places) which with showers forecast can only worsen. Good luck everyone finding a winner or two and here’s my thoughts -

 

Doncaster 1.35

 

Only eight go to post for the Flying Childers, a group 2 contest for two year olds run over 5F. The front two in the market have the best form although neither have raced on softish ground. The Platinum Queen looked all speed with victories at York and Goodwood prior to an even better effort when runner up in the Nunthorpe at York behind sprinting sensation Highfield Princess. All three of those runs though were on rattling fast ground and how she will cope with easy ground no one knows. The same applies to Richard Hannon’s Trillium who took the group 3 Molecomb Stakes at their big meeting in good style from Rocket Rodney (beaten since). The former has the better form credentials but I am worried of the ground for her. I’ll take a chance with Jessie Harrington’s Funny Money Honey who will need to improve to take this but won’t mind the soft ground and looked all about speed last week at Salisbury where he led the field for 5F before weakening quickly. Hollie Doyle retains the ride and she’s worth a small each way bet.

 

FUNNY MONEY HONEY 1/2 point each way @ 22/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Curragh 1.50

The Group 2 Blandford Stakes will be run over 10F and is for three year old and older fillies and mares. Paddy Twomey’s La Petite Coco is the highest rated of the thirteen strong field and will be hard to beat on ground that should be in her favour. Penalised 3lb for her Group one victory in the Pretty Polly over course and distance in June, her first since winning this very race a year ago by a short head from Love she will be ridden, as per normal, by Billy Lee. Nine three year olds take her on here with the best of them the Ryan Moore ridden Above The Curve who we haven’t seen since May when winning the Group one Prix Saint Alary at Longchamp. Joseph O’Brien’s filly has to shoulder, like La Petite Coco, a 3lb penalty but looks the biggest threat to the selection.

 

LA PETITE COCO 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Doncaster 2.10

A maximum field of twenty two go to post for this year’s renewal of the 5F 143 yards Portland Handicap. Favourite Whenthedealisdone won with his head in his chest a week ago at Ascot and although a 10lb rise was high enough he should run well on ground that should suit Roger Teal’s four year old. Teal also saddles Chipstead but he may not be as well suited by soft ground as his stable mate. Tim Easterby’s bottom weight Count D’Orsay was third in this last year and off of a handicap mark 8lb lower can run well along with Karl Burke’s Significantly who’s effort last time at York can be forgotten as he was given a nasty bump a couple of furlongs out which put paid to any chance he had at the time. The handicapper kindly dropped him 4lb to 96 which is the same mark as he last won off of (Ascot last Summer) and as a Royal Ascot winner last year on heavy ground won’t mind the softening conditions. At a big price he’s worth backing each way along with Count D’Orsay.

 

SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 33/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

COUNT D’ORSAY 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

 

Curragh 2.25

Highfield Princess did us a nice turn when winning the Nunthorpe at York 23 days ago and looks the one they all have to beat in the Group one Flying Five Stakes for the Yorkshire stable of John Quinn who does well with his forays over the Irish Channel. She appears to handle any ground and must go well although at round the 7/4 mark has been well found in the market. She is worth a small stakes saver against Adrian McGuinness’s A Case Of You who is officially rated only 3lb behind the favourite but can be backed at around the 9/1 mark currently. She was a 33/1 chance when runner up in the contest a year ago when going down by a half a length to the re-appearing Romantic Proposal and followed that excellent effort up by winning the Prix de L’Abbaye on Arc day on bottomless ground. Following a successful stint at the Meydan Dubai Carnival where he won the group one Al Quoz Sprint he’s yet to hit top form but the drop to the minimum trip and soft ground should bring about the requisite improvement needed and he can be played each way.

 

A CASE OF YOU 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Doncaster 2.45

 

It’s hard to oppose favourite Trueshan in this 2m 2F Doncaster Cup where the more rain that falls the better for Alan King’s mudlark. He’s head and shoulders above his opponents here and with his likely optimum conditions impossible to oppose. Andrew Balding’s Coltrane maybe the one to chase him home but I fully expect Trueshan to win comfortably. At the odds I don’t see a bet unless you want to play the winning distance markets.

 

Curragh 3.00

The 7F Moyglare Stakes is a group one contest for two year old fillies and features the smart Aidan O’Brien trained Mediate who’s bidding to keep her unbeaten run in tact having won all four of her starts including Group 3’s at Naas and Royal Ascot and a Group 2 over course and distance in August. She looks smart and will be hard to beat but if there is one horse who might be top class then surely it’s Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra. She looked useful when winning on her debut in a 7F Galway maiden when pushed out to put 5 1/2L between herself and the subsequent winner Dower House on rain softened ground. She’s owned by the Aga Khan and is a half sister to the great Tarnawa, one of my all time faves (though don’t talk to me about last year’s Arc!). Mediate will probably win but I can’t resist a small each way play on Tahiyra to prove she’s useful.

 

TAHIYRA 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Doncaster 3.20

Nine go to post for the 7F Group 2 Park Stakes for three year olds and older. Kinross will appreciate the rain softened ground having won a similar contest at York last time although does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty today. These are his optimum conditions mind so he looks sure to run a big race. The soft ground appears to have gone against the likes of Sacred, Double Or Bubble and Jumby and the best each way value against the favourite who looks skinny enough at around 7/4 may well be Charlie Hills’ Garrus. This will be only his second attempt at 7F but was staying on again when an excellent third in the 6 1/F Group one Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last time behind two subsequent Group one winners in Highfield Princess and Minzaal. A reproduction of that effort would put him right in the mix so let’s go each way with him in the hope the extra half a furlong brings out more improvement.

 

GARRUS 1 point each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Curragh 3.35

A small but select field of six go to post for the Group one National Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. The Futurity Stakes run over course and distance three weeks ago is the go to form line with Aidan O’Brien’s Aesop’s Fables coming home 2 1/4L ahead of stable companion Hans Anderson and there appears no reason why the latter should turn the form around. Just behind in third that day was Joseph O’Brien’s Proud And Regal and once again will need to improve to turn the form around. English challenger Marbaan was last seen winning a weak Group 2 at Goodwood and will likely have to step up again on ground he’s never run on as yet. I wouldn’t be shocked if Johnny Murtagh’s Shartash out runs his odds now he’s stepping up a furlong on ground he’s proven on and is worth a small saver.

 

AESOPS FABLES 3 points win @ 5/6 William Hill

SHARTASH 1 point win @ 14/1 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 3.55

This year’s St Leger has a bit of a sub standard look to it with just the nine going to post. A warm favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained New London who steps up to 1m 6F for the first time but won’t get beat through lack of stamina having finished strongly when winning the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time. That form had worked out remarkably well with the runner up Deauville Legend winning the Group 3 Great Voltigeur since, the 3rd and re-opposing here Hoo Ya Mal landing the odds at Goodwood in a Group 3, the 4th Jack Darcy finishing runner up in a Deauville listed contest, the 5th Cresta winning a listed race at Windsor by 6 1/2L and the 6th West Wind Blows winning a Group 3 at Longchamp. Red hot form and New London will be hard to beat. Current second favourite is Roger Varian’s Eldar Eldarov who won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot but flopped in France last time. The supplemented Haskoy looks a a smart filly but lacks experience having won a Wolverhampton novice stakes and a listed contest at York, this represents a big step up in class. I think New London will probably win but would prefer an each way bet on Hoo Ya Mal who was runner up in the Derby this year and although has 2L to make up with New London on Goodwood form did push him all the way and his new owner (soon to be trainer) Gai Waterhouse was very bullish about his chances on a recent Nick Luck podcast stating she expects him to win ! He’s off to Australia after this race to be trained for the Melbourne Cup and looks an each way bet to nothing to my eyes though whether he can topple the favourite is another matter.

 

HOO YA MAL 1 point each way 7/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Curragh 4.10

Kyprios is a warm order for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore to take the Irish St Leger run over 1m 6F for three year olds and upwards. He’s unbeaten this season in four starts at Navan (listed), Leopardstown (group 3), Ascot (Gold Cup) and Goodwood (Goodwood Cup) with all four of those success’s coming on good fast ground. His three worst RPR’s in his career have come on soft ground although he did win a weak maiden on his debut at Galway on heavy and it might just be that he’s a better horse on decent ground. Certainly at around the 4/7 mark I don’t want to pay to find out and I’m happy to take him on each way with the English raider Hamish. Trained at Newmarket by master handler William Haggas he has undoubted talent especially when the mud is flying with his form figures on ground with the word soft in the title reading 112441. He’s seemingly quite a hard horse to train as we don’t see much of him nowadays but you can be sure Haggas has him ready for this and he can overcome a 129 day absence and run a big race under Richard Kingscote. Search For A Song has to be mentioned also as she won the 2019 and 2020 runnings of this and her stable is in buoyant form.

 

HAMISH 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123