Racing Chat - Saturday 20th August

[Tedthewolf]

7 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

4.10 york not overly happy with 7/1 for SUMMEGHAND  would  have liked 10's but have taken it e/w  6 places bog  should at least get placed.  

 An interesting  front runner is  SALEYMN 16/1 e/w  6 places bog  dropped to 6f for the first time could be hard to catch.

ROYAL SICMATAR  33/1 -40/1  could go well at a very big price and is worth a few shillings e/w imo.

 

 

A well deserved win for Summerghand?

[The Brigadier]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Loads of PL members are interested today.  Let's hope I haven't overdone it on stakes .

1.50 Yk Mighty Ulluses (PL Nap and @TheBrigadier selection.  Gone odds on now with 9/1 non-runner, I'll pass

2.25 Yk Wild Crusade 1 pt win at 5.7 @TheBrigadierew at 6/1.  Anyone who wants to back @TheBrigadier's selections really needs to get on early, almost as soon as he publishes because invariably the odds shrink badly on the day of racing

3.00 YK Rohaan 0.60 ew at 7/1 @TheBrigadier.  Have got his price on this one

3.35 YK The Ebor. Earl Of Tyrone 0.40 win cover bet at 9/2 @richard-westwoodtop rated; Alfred Boucher 0.30 ew at 10/1 @Johnrobertson's nap 14/1, PLTR ew 14/1, @richard-westwood2nd top rated; Enemy 0.30 ew at 20/1 @Zilzalian's nap and Benaud 0.30 ew at 25/1 @black rabbitRC selection 38/1.

4.10 Yk  Loads of PL members have bet on this one.  I can't back Summerghand; I lost on it last time and don't trust it today.  I will let it win at any price.  Probably spent too much on this and should have left the race alone but here are the selections for fun.  Regional 0.60 ew at 8/1 PLTR & @richard-westwood2nd top rated.  Saleymm 0.30 ew 12/1 @Tedthewolf's 14/1 ew selection, Royal Scimitar 0.15 ew at 80/1 @Tedthewolfew, Mr Wagyu 0.30 ew at 12/1 @silver foxnap ew at 14/1 and Gulliver 0.15 ew at 22/1 @MCLARKEew £20 challenge selection and Mums Tipple 0.40 ew.  This is my own selection; I just like the horse.  an extravagant 3.80 pts spent

4.45 Yk Rocket Rodney PLTR 13/8 best price now 7/4, Too short for me

5.20 Yk Phantom flight PLTR at 7/2; lucky to get 3/1 so not for me unless in a multiple that I have no time for today.  Piecederistance 0.15 ew at 22/1 @Ferki's ew nap

2.40 San Silver Knot @TheBrigadier's selection at 7/2.  The price has gone to best price 15/8 and has usurped Desert Hero into being the second favourite.  Too short for me

3.50 San Victory Chime 0.15 ew at 25/1 @Nigwilliamew 5 places £20 challenge bet

5.35 San Marnie James 0.30 ew at 12/1 @mick33win nap at 16/1 

Total spend = 9.40 stakes

Good luck to all

Just a word on the shortening of my selections. As a professional oddsmaker these are just errors by the bookmakers and not weight of money by followers of mine! I'm always trying to put out my selections the day before racing at around 9AM where I believe we can find some decent value before the markets start to properly form.

[The Brigadier]

5 minutes ago, Yalwen said:

Brilliant Ebor, Brig. Fantastic insight and a terrific profit. Thanks for your hard work and well done!  Whatever the outcomes you always give us an interesting read and I always look forward to your analysis.

Thank you @Yalwen - its always nice to have such positive feedback and it makes the work behind it all more rewarding.

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

Just a word on the shortening of my selections. As a professional oddsmaker these are just errors by the bookmakers and not weight of money by followers of mine! I'm always trying to put out my selections the day before racing at around 9AM where I believe we can find some decent value before the markets start to properly form.

Yes, I'm sure that this is true.  All I was trying to do was alert members to getting in early as quite often the prices do shorten on the day.  It must have been a bookmaker that said it doesn't matter what price a horse is as long as it wins.  However, I have never met one who will refund my stakes when a short-price horse loses.

May I ask if is it you who does the weekday PL Tips?  I seem to remember that the Tumbleweed King did Sundays and Mondays or something like that

[Zilzalian]

Grumpy old b'stards head on again. But dress it up in all the fancy tactics and Hcap theories, out of form theories you want but Summerghand has been "stopped/not off" all year. a retrospective stewards should be performed in situations where a horse fails to win moderate races and then improves (backed) for 1 specific race. I have long held the belief that h'caps should be scrapped. and yes no one has to back in them but thats not the point, people do.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Zilzalian

[The Brigadier]

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, I'm sure that this is true.  All I was trying to do was alert members to getting in early as quite often the prices do shorten on the day.  It must have been a bookmaker that said it doesn't matter what price a horse is as long as it wins.  However, I have never met one who will refund my stakes when a short-price horse loses.

May I ask if is it you who does the weekday PL Tips?  I seem to remember that the Tumbleweed King did Sundays and Mondays or something like that

If you can find value I always feel you're half way there to be honest @EQUALISER And yes it is I that does the PL daily and weekend tips with Tumbleweed King doing the acca bets for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

[azzybear]

el kaznha 6.00

[azzybear]

dragon glory 5.50

[kroni]

7 hours ago, kroni said:

Deauville 

250 - Trevaunance @ 10/1 e-w Bet365/Hills

couldn't believe the drift the on this, i was pretty happy with the 10/1, but it drifted to 20/1 so double bubble 

[Tedthewolf]

10 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Grumpy old b'stards head on again. But dress it up in all the fancy tactics and Hcap theories, out of form theories you want but Summerghand has been "stopped/not off" all year. a retrospective stewards should be performed in situations where a horse fails to win moderate races and then improves (backed) for 1 specific race. I have long held the belief that h'caps should be scrapped. and yes no one has to back in them but thats not the point, people do.

Harsh imo . Summerghand ran a  good race lto  finished well on the wrong side of the track was dropped another pound for today . Ran well in may @ 25/1 off a mark of 103 then ran in June off  101 a good 5th  @ 16/1  followed by a poor run at goodwood in July off 100 then its run lto off  98  when as i said finished well on the wrong side of track down to 97 today  so has been steadily dropping to a nice mark  so no surprise to see it well supported at 10's  when  market was formed  SP of 15/2    has looked ready to win one of these big handicaps for a while so imho no big  surprise to see it win today imho.

 

 

[Tedthewolf]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

5.20 york just 2 small e/w bets on GEREMAI  & ONEFOTTHEGUTTER both 33/1 shots

Two nice placers to end the day.

Time  for a beer.

"Taxi to the dog & duck"

[Zilzalian]

19 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Harsh imo . Summerghand ran a  good race lto  finished well on the wrong side of the track was dropped another pound for today . Ran well in may @ 25/1 off a mark of 103 then ran in June off  101 a good 5th  @ 16/1  followed by a poor run at goodwood in July off 100 then its run lto off  98  when as i said finished well on the wrong side of track down to 97 today  so has been steadily dropping to a nice mark  so no surprise to see it well supported at 10's  when  market was formed  SP of 15/2    has looked ready to win one of these big handicaps for a while so imho no big  surprise to see it win today imho.

 

 

Not saying its a big surprise or it wasnt well h/capped and backed what i am saying is that since its last win the trainer has been manipulating its h/cap mark which is what i would expect my trainer to do with my horse if i had one and thats my point. h/caps are open to manipulation which puts the "straight" trainers and owners at a dissadvantage. Thats why in my opinion hcaps should be scrapped or at least a good case can be made for scrapping them.

[Tedthewolf]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Not saying its a big surprise or it wasnt well h/capped and backed what i am saying is that since its last win the trainer has been manipulating its h/cap mark which is what i would expect my trainer to do with my horse if i had one and thats my point. h/caps are open to manipulation which puts the "straight" trainers and owners at a dissadvantage. Thats why in my opinion hcaps should be scrapped or at least a good case can be made for scrapping them.

And what i was trying to point out it had run well on 3 of its last 4 runs so i don't see it as manipulating.  

Bollocks to that if  Handicaps where scraped i  wouldn't  have a bet on the horses.

They are like Jigsaw love trying to solve them.

 

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Grumpy old b'stards head on again. But dress it up in all the fancy tactics and Hcap theories, out of form theories you want but Summerghand has been "stopped/not off" all year. a retrospective stewards should be performed in situations where a horse fails to win moderate races and then improves (backed) for 1 specific race. I have long held the belief that h'caps should be scrapped. and yes no one has to back in them but thats not the point, people do.

I would say that many trainers try to set one up occasionally, some do it regularly with obvious 'never at the races runs' before either a market plunge or a decent prize money race. As with most things in life, some are far better at it than others. In the current climate, with many trainers supposedly struggling, and owners with bills to pay, it will happen more often.  Not too many trainers have the expensive horses with owners who are in it for the sport and the winning. I regularly look for those who are falling in the handicap, especially when the trainer is coming into form. My experience is that for every gamble that comes off, there are many others that don't.

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Grumpy old b'stards head on again. But dress it up in all the fancy tactics and Hcap theories, out of form theories you want but Summerghand has been "stopped/not off" all year. a retrospective stewards should be performed in situations where a horse fails to win moderate races and then improves (backed) for 1 specific race. I have long held the belief that h'caps should be scrapped. and yes no one has to back in them but thats not the point, people do.

If you ever own a horse that goes handicapping ( class 4/5 ) you're told to expect it to win once & be placed 2/3 times every ten runs & to expect £20 for every £100 you put into it with returned prize money anything better than that is a bonus & as with Summerghand , run today's race 10 times you'll probably get 9 different winners that's the beauty of handicap racing imo .

Edited August 20, 2022 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

I am not Disputing anything anyone has said all i am saying is that handicaps by design encourage malpractice for want of wanting to use a harsher word and so make them unfair to "straight" trainers. and punters. and i have already admitted that if i had a horse i would expect the trainer to "get it ready". and might i point out that both of you have agreed by way of your responses that my basic premis the handicaps are by design can be manipulated and therefore unfair.

[MCLARKE]

My dad once told me "life's unfair and the sooner you accept that the happier you will be".

Handicaps may be unfair but most of my profits come from them, especially the big handicaps where the bookies offer lots of extra places.

Anyway stop being grumpy, you've just won the York tipsters competition !

[Tedthewolf]

Its also  unfaiir  imo when  trainer runs a horse  in  non handicap race  just to give it a run  or get it fit for a certain race  it happens  so ban handicaps  and you have to ban all races.

Think its best to agree to disagree but imo they were not playing around with summerghand ?

[Zilzalian]

46 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Its also  unfaiir  imo when  trainer runs a horse  in  non handicap race  just to give it a run  or get it fit for a certain race  it happens  so ban handicaps  and you have to ban all races.

Think its best to agree to disagree but imo they were not playing around with summerghand ?

I don't think they have a handicap system in America Ted, they have what they call h/cap races but not the same as ours. not disagreeing with you i was just using sumerghand (it may or may not have been "laid out"  we will never know) as an example to be honest. have made good money off it in the past. and lost some where all my figures said it had a good chance.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

My dad once told me "life's unfair and the sooner you accept that the happier you will be".

Handicaps may be unfair but most of my profits come from them, especially the big handicaps where the bookies offer lots of extra places.

Anyway stop being grumpy, you've just won the York tipsters competition !

I'm an old b'stard i have earned the right to be grumpy ??? and your dad was spot on.

[MCLARKE]

5 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I'm an old b'stard i have earned the right to be grumpy ??? and your dad was spot on.

He was, he died of an heart attack when he was 45, bless him !

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, Bang on said:

I would say that many trainers try to set one up occasionally, some do it regularly with obvious 'never at the races runs' before either a market plunge or a decent prize money race. As with most things in life, some are far better at it than others. In the current climate, with many trainers supposedly struggling, and owners with bills to pay, it will happen more often.  Not too many trainers have the expensive horses with owners who are in it for the sport and the winning. I regularly look for those who are falling in the handicap, especially when the trainer is coming into form. My experience is that for every gamble that comes off, there are many others that don't.

Just wondering how you decide if a trainer is coming into form? Do you use RP's RTF figures as highlighted by @Trotter recently?  If so what sort of RTF figure would you accept as the trainer being in form.  It seems to me that any figure below 50 has to be doubtful as one can only assume that we are likely to see only 50% of his horses running to their best.  Also, what number of runners in the last 14 days would constitute a fair number to determine whether the figure can be relied upon?  For example, less than 10 looks highly iffy to me even if the trainer has a glowing 70% + RTF

 

[Bang on]

On 8/21/2022 at 12:08 AM, The Equaliser said:

Just wondering how you decide if a trainer is coming into form? Do you use RP's RTF figures as highlighted by @Trotter recently?  If so what sort of RTF figure would you accept as the trainer being in form.  It seems to me that any figure below 50 has to be doubtful as one can only assume that we are likely to see only 50% of his horses running to their best.  Also, what number of runners in the last 14 days would constitute a fair number to determine whether the figure can be relied upon?  For example, less than 10 looks highly iffy to me even if the trainer has a glowing 70% + RTF

 

I never look at the Racing Post RTF figures. I look at the last 2 weeks runners, and look for at least a 1 in 4 strike rate (winners) - I call these HOT TRAINERS, ... PLUS enough 'placed' horses as well. You get a feel of who to look for by following races daily.

I don't worry about less than 10 runners as some stables are quite small.. these are the most profitable IMO as they are not the big names that attract weight of money.

To explain further.. today (Mon Aug 22nd).. trainer Roger Varian has 62% running to form... yet only a 17% strike rate of winners (last 2 weeks) - Not for me just yet. Alternatively, Sir Mark Prescott has a 61% RTF, slightly lower than R.Varian .. but a 33% winner strike rate, around double. I don't want to back horses that 'run well' or 'run to form'... I want WINNERS.

Even with this information... many do not win, so don't back blindly. Depending upon what price range you look for .. today has HOT trainers with chances .. 4.50 Strat - Victory Club.. 5.20 Strat - Salley Gardens .. and 1.50 Chep - Gilt Edge (available at 7/1 with Bet365 [enhanced 3 places with only 7 runners] and 5lb below last winning mark - trainer Christopher Mason is not a big name... but is 3 wins, 3 placed, from 10 runners in last 2 weeks). We will see. 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I never look at the Racing Post RTF figures. I look at the last 2 weeks runners, and look for at least a 1 in 4 strike rate (winners) - I call these HOT TRAINERS, ... PLUS enough 'placed' horses as well. You get a feel of who to look for by following races daily.

I don't worry about less than 10 runners as some stables are quite small.. these are the most profitable IMO as they are not the big names that attract weight of money.

To explain further.. today (Mon Aug 22nd).. trainer Roger Varian has 62% running to form... yet only a 17% strike rate of winners (last 2 weeks) - Not for me just yet. Alternatively, Sir Mark Prescott has a 61% RTF, slightly lower than R.Varian .. but a 33% winner strike rate, around double. I don't want to back horses that 'run well' or 'run to form'... I want WINNERS.

Even with this information... many do not win, so don't back blindly. Depending upon what price range you look for .. today has HOT trainers with chances .. 4.50 Strat - Victory Club.. 5.20 Strat - Salley Gardens .. and 1.50 Chep - Gilt Edge (available at 7/1 with Bet365 [enhanced 3 places with only 7 runners] and 5lb below last winning mark - trainer Christopher Mason is not a big name... but is 3 wins, 3 placed, from 10 runners in last 2 weeks). We will see. 

Very many thanks for your detailed answer.  Most helpful as you highight class 4 races that I am interested in today.  I can see the Roger Varian S/R of 17% but can't see the 62% figure anywhere.  Can you help?  Funny enough the RP has an RTF figure of 74 in the 4.40 at Chepstow with Love Trophy Power.  I'll have to look around for Sir Mark Prescot's runners and Chris Mason's though I won't be backing in races that are below class 4.  DO you have a quick way of finding these such as using "smart stats" on ATR?

[Bang on]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your detailed answer.  Most helpful as you highight class 4 races that I am interested in today.  I can see the Roger Varian S/R of 17% but can't see the 62% figure anywhere.  Can you help?  Funny enough the RP has an RTF figure of 74 in the 4.40 at Chepstow with Love Trophy Power.  I'll have to look around for Sir Mark Prescot's runners and Chris Mason's though I won't be backing in races that are below class 4.  DO you have a quick way of finding these such as using "smart stats" on ATR?

I use the paper version of the Racing Post - it means that I can highlight various pointers.

But you can go on the Racing post website - click on the race you want - choose CARD from the options (card - pro card -  at a glance - odds comparison - live). ....then, beside the trainers name is the RTF figure. If you then click on the trainers name it gives you the 'last 14 days' wins/runs plus more detail of the actual runners.