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Racing Chat - Tuesday 26th July

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

Posted
Posted
Goodwood 1.50
The 2022 Glorious Goodwood meeting kicks off with a highly competitive 10F class 2 handicap which has attracted a maximum field of 18. There’s sure to be hard luck stories here in such a size field but let’s try and find the most likely winner and hope it’s not us finding the trouble! A key piece of form is the John Smiths Cup run at York 17 days ago won by Anmaat. That form was doubly franked at the weekend by success’s for the runner up Achelois and 4th Spirit Dancer so the 5th and 6th from that race Brilliant Light and Just Fine have to be given maximum respect. Saeed Bun Suroor’s Brilliant Light finished a length ahead of Sir Michael Stoute’s Just Fine but is 2lb worse off. There shouldn’t be much between them and both hold major each way claims. Roger Varain’s Legend Of Dubai was backed down to 7/2 favouritism at Royal Ascot but ran a stinker and although he’ll appreciate this longer trip has questions to answer now and represents scant value at his current odds. I do like the look of the William Knight trained, Harry Redknapp owned Moktasaab who won at Newbury and here over course and distance (from Caradoc who re-opposes on 7lb better terms for 1 1/4L and should run well though is hard to win with) earlier in the season before not handling Epsom and then failing to see out the 1m 4F trip at Ascot. He looks each way value and I’ll be backing him each way as well as Brilliant Light who I just favour over Just Fine.
 
MOKTASAAB 1 point each way @ 12/1 Coral 12/1 1/5th 12345
BRILLIANT LIGHT 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
Goodwood 2.25
A field of nine assemble for the group 2 Vintage Stakes with the warm favourite Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy who made a winning racecourse debut in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Not many horses have made a winning racecourse debut in the juvenile races there over the years and he’s a worthy favourite. The only issue I have is that the form hasn’t really worked out. Six horses have run from that race since all have been turned over. Maybe he just won a bad renewal of the Chesham? At around 2/1 I don’t want to pay to find out and I’m happy enough to take him on. I have respect for Charlie Hills’ Galeron who’s course win last time out was boosted by the runner up winning well at Newbury last week. Charlie and Mark Johnstone’s Dear My Friend is stepping up in grade following victories at Carlisle and Beverley and with the stable winning this with Dark Vision in 2018 is another interesting runner. I’m going to stick with the boys in blue though with the Charlie Appleby trained Mysterious Night who followed up his Newbury win in June with a high,y credible 3 1/4L 3rd in the group 2 July Stakes behind smart sorts Persian Force and Show Respect. That form may be good enough for him to take this.
 
MYSTERIOUS KNIGHT 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill
 
Goodwood 3.00
The 7F Lennox Stakes is up next with a decent enough field of eleven heading to post. The favourite is the William Haggas trained filly Sacred who will take plenty of beating. She ran a stormer in the group one 6F Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot to finish a length 5th behind Naval Crown having not had the clearest of passages close home. She’s two from two over this trip and should be hard to beat on her favoured fast terrain. I can’t have last year’s winner Kinross as he prefers to get his toe into the ground whilst Pogo, who comes here chasing a hat trick, is nought from three here in the past. Lusail brings some good classic form to the table for the Richard Hannon stable and should be thereabouts but I can’t resist a tiny each way saver on outsider Sir Dancealot. When trained by David Elsworth he won this very contest in 2018 and 2019 and although he’s now in the care of the more than capable John Butler at Newmarket showed last time out in a handicap off of a mark of 103 that he retains plenty of ability. This really though is Sacred’s to lose with Tom Marquand doing the steering.
 
SACRED 3 points win 2/1 William Hill
SIR DANCEALOT 1/2 point each way @ 50/1 bet365 1/5th 123
 
Goodwood 3.35
A quality turnout of nine stayers assemble for this year’s renewal of the Goodwood Cup run over two miles. Last year’s winner Trueshan has been declared but surely won’t run unless there’s rain. If the heavens did open he would be a strong fancy and a clear favourite but that’s highly unlikely and it’s odds on that he’s pulled out on the morning of the race unfortunately. The story of the race (meeting?) is the John and Thady Gosden trained Stradivarius who’s won four Goodwood Cups (he was pulled out last year due to the wet ground). This will be his final run and it would be great to see him go out on a winning note with or without Frankie Dettori who’s been jocked off the grand eight year old by his owner Bjorn Neilsen following a couple of poor rides in the last two Ascot Gold Cups. He does have a major chance today but just may struggle to beat the four year younger Aiden O’Brien trained Kyprios who is a progressive lightly raced stayer who looks all set to win plenty more staying races. He won the Ascot Gold Cup last time and the drop back half a mile shouldn’t worry him too much as he does have plenty of speed as well as stamina. The others all have plenty to find with the big three (two if Trueshan comes out) although Coltrane seems to be rapidly improving for some reason at five years of age and shouldn’t be totally dismissed.
 
KYPRIOS 3 points win @ 13/8 William Hill
 
Goodwood 4.10
Fifteen speedsters go to post for this class 2 5F handicap. Celsius has won at this specialist track and although up 5lb for a recent win at Newmarket (Dusky Lord 1 1/2L back in 4th and now 5lb better off and Night On Earth a further place and 3/4L back and now 7lb better off) can run well here as I thought he did it quite cosily that day and conditions will be ideal. He should run well (as should the pair that were just behind him that day) but I’ve a fancy for John Quinn’s seven year old Lord Riddiford who’s the each way bet here. He was a comfortable winner of this race last year on soft ground, coming home two lengths to the good from stable mate El Astronaute off of a pound higher mark. He lost his way a bit since but showed some promise last time at Doncaster to suggest his time is near. I am a bit concerned by the fast terrain as it was soft last year but he does have winning form on good to firm and at a double figure price he’s worth a go.
 
LORD RIDDIFORD point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Goodwood 4.45
ITV surprisingly include this fifteen runner two year old maiden in their coverage. Charlie Appleby has a decent bunch of juveniles including another smart looking pair winning at Ascot and Newmarket last weekend and saddles Mischief Magic here. He has course experience having run over course and distance on his debut in May when third beaten 6 1/4L to the smart Royal Scotsman who’s run third in the Coventry since. The runner up that day has also won since as has the 4th Show Respect who’s also run a fine second in the group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket. Even the 5th Galeron and 7th Alif Power have won making the form of that race very strong. With William Buick on board he looks the one they all have to beat. There are dangers mind you with the William Knight runner Chartwell House just touched off at Windsor last time the pick of them. With the Appleby two years old in such fine form though and his form working out so well it’s hard to look past their runner here.
 
MISCHIEF MAGIC 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365
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calva decoy

calva decoy

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 7/25/2022 at 3:05 PM, alexcaruso808 said:

Just one for me at Goodwood, although I will be following other tipsters here.

Goodwood 3.35

Trueshan 5/2

 

Timeforms Ratings Banker at 11/4  , if it runs with CRYSTAL CAPRICE 3/1 in the 5.20 the big improver . 

1st ?

Edited by calva decoy
results update
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted (edited)

Two "NOTEBOOK" horses running at Goodwood tomorrow.
335 Enemy 50/1 I'm a bit surprised this has turned up here to be honest because it has an entry in the EBOR (25/1)

This is 16f which i thought may have been the reason it had been beaten previously (although they wouldnt have wanted any more weight if the Ebor was the plan) so im not sure what to make of it running here in a 2mile G1 against solid performers instead of the Ebor H'cap at 1m6f which in my opinion is far more suitable maybe the trainer Ian Williams who is pretty impressive when it comes to staying races thinks it worth a go in both who knows? Be assured if it wins here it will be fav for the Ebor. So just an EW is advised for the half a stout drinkers.

445 Master of Chant is The other runner at about 6/1, not much to go on form wise in this race but i think Marcus Tregoning's horse is worth a bet, it will probably be a decent animal that can beat Master of Chant, Its debut at a big price was very encouraging it ran green as grass all over the place and still managed to look good failing by 1/2L with a reasonable time figure to beat a previous winner with a few far more experienced animals behind.

For the Bitter drinkers - Worth a farthing or two on the double at 350/1+ ish.

Edited by Zilzalian
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

410 good 

Atalis bay  8.2 15/2 

Night on earth  8.0 9/1 

Rayong   7.9  12/1 

Equality  7.5  

Top 3 ....3pt ew 5 places 

Hey mucker how did  Stone of Destiny rate as i really like it & think it will pop a decent handicap very  soon. I see the trainer has put a decent apprentice on top today nice low weight. 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Hey mucker how did  Stone of Destiny rate as i really like it & think it will pop a decent handicap very  soon. I see the trainer has put a decent apprentice on top today nice low weight. 

Stone of destiny is 5th ...got to be honest I thought the same thing myself ....he always pops up in a sprint so I can't say it's a bad bet .....?

Edited by richard-westwood
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted

In the two  big  handicaps on itv  from Goodwood  tomorrow i don't  fancy any of  the  big priced horses enough to back which is very unusual  for me   i have gone for 2 short one  for me but gotta go with the flow. I have  gone for a e/w double and  backed the later e/w single aswell.

1.50 GW-BRILLIANT LIGHT 7/1(now 6/1) be365  6 places bog- Been running well this season the Godolphin runner  my eck  out a little bit more should  be in the mix here with 6 places up for grabs

4.10 GW-STONE OF DESTINY 10/1 bet365  4 places bog- Should go very close off this mark if given luck in running. Trainers runners are in great form. 

GOOD LUCK ALL

 

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted

The conundrum.

Being a big Trueshan fan but but but if we are to believe the trainer and his past actions

win lose or draw is 2/1 not the worst price you have seen this year? after all it must be vulnerable

on good ground if we believe the excellent trainer King. Personally i have often thought King was being a bit too finicky ground wise

as i have always thought good ground was fine and lets be honest tapeta or its base isnt exactly soft ref the northumberland plate victory.

would you really bet at 2/1 in this race when there are huge ew prices in a 9 runner race? either way its going to be interesting

its not a stretch of imagination to suggest a big price may will be at least placed the only problem is which one?

one other thought, what price Trueshan not in the first three?

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Goodwood trend analysis

1.50

Not finished in 1st 6 last time, o from 50

Last ran more than 34 days ago, o from 32

Finished 1st or 2nd last time, 1 from 32

This leaves BRILLIANT LIGHT, JUST FINE, WEST END CHARMER and SOTO SIZZLER

Odds 13/2 - 8/1, 4 from 20, AE 1.91

This leaves BRILLIANT LIGHT at 6/1, 6 places

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

Time just seems to escape me

6.00 Worc Leapaway 5/2

7.05 Worc Northern Bound 5/1

7.40 Worc Girlofmydreams 5/2

8.10 Worc Greystoke 3/1

6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trbles 1 x 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.50 stakes, poss return of 345.37

7.05 Ashoka 0.50 win at 11/1

Goodwood bets

1.50 Solo Sizzler 1 pt win at 30 & 1 pt lay in running at 17 poss free bet for 12.25 pts

2.25 Mysterious Knight 1 pt win at 6.0

3.00 Sacred to beat either Pogo or Lusail 1 pt win at 5/1 and Pogo 1 pt win at 8.0

3.35 Coltrane 1 pt ew at 8/1 only 3 places 1/5

4.10 Gd Night On Earth 1 pt ew at 10.5 3TBP at qtr odds

4.45Gd Mischief Night 1 pt win at 4.3

5.20 Wilderness Girl 1 pt win at 13.5

5.55 Kidwah 1 pt win at 5.1

Total stakes = 17 today

Good luck to all

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just one winner and a place so far today

I'll try 2.5 pts win on Northern Bound at 7.0 in the 7.05 at Worcester

= 19.5 staked today

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7.40 Worc Girlofmydreams 3 pts win at 5.8

= 22.5 stakes today

8.10 Worc Grey Stoke 6 pts win at 4.2 (let's see if it can beat Fergal O'brien's horse. FOB on a 4 timer, can it be 5?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

Haha, I forgot that in a handicap just about any horse can win it.  Not much luck at at all today.  I win and 1 place = 7.58 from 28.5 = a loss of 20.92 points.

My MTD is now -50.57 and YTD is -193.59

Not much doing in the class 4 and upwards open races at other UK meetings apart from Goodwood tomorrow.

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Goodwood trend analysis (continued)

2.25

Drawn 1 - 4, 1 from 26

Not in 1st 2 last time, 0 from 24

Odds > 6/1, 1 from 43

This leaves DEAR MY FRIEND at 13/2

3.00

Age = 3, 0 from 15

Not in 1st 4 last time, 1 from 31

Drawn 2 - 5, 5 from 26, AE 1.43

This leaves POGO at 13/2 and SIR DANCEALOT at 40/1, 4 places

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Goodwood trend analysis (continued)

2.25

Drawn 1 - 4, 1 from 26

Not in 1st 2 last time, 0 from 24

Odds > 6/1, 1 from 43

This leaves DEAR MY FRIEND at 13/2

3.00

Age = 3, 0 from 15

Not in 1st 4 last time, 1 from 31

Drawn 2 - 5, 5 from 26, AE 1.43

This leaves POGO at 13/2 and SIR DANCEALOT at 40/1, 4 places

I agree that sir dancealot is a huge price 50/1 this morn, i also have dear my friend in my top 2 (other being marbaan) speed figures

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted

Goodwood trend analysis (continued)

3.35

Odds > 5/1, 1 from 63

Not 1st last time, 1 from 52

Age > 5, 2 from 26

This leaves KYPRIOS at 2/1

4.10

Odds < 12/1, 1 from 43

Finished in 1st 7 last time, 2 from 62

This leaves ORNATE and DUKE OF FIRENZE

Last ran more than 29 days ago, 4 from 29, AE 2.80

This leaves ORNATE at 50/1, 4 places

4.45

Draw > 7, 0 from 38

Bred in UK, 6 from 38, AE 1.45

This leaves 2, IMPERIOUSITY and MASTER OF CHANT

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 4 from 53, AE 1.93

This leaves IMPERIOUSITY at 200/1, 4 places

5.20

Top 7 in the weights, 1 from50

Last ran more than 21 days ago, 1 from 34

This leaves BREAKING LIGHT and RAINBOW COLOURS

Not drawn 1 to 5, 3 from 66

This leaves BREAKING LIGHT at 100/30, 4 places

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