Racing Chat - Saturday 14th May

[The Brigadier]

Newbury 1.35

Nine three year olds go to post for the BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes, a listed contest run over 6F. The 2nd and 3rd from the Go Bears Go Commonwealth Cup Trial Group 3 victory at Ascot last month renew rivalry with Hugo Palmer’s Hierarchy taken to confirm form over Ehraz who was 1 3/4L behind him that day. Aidan O’Brien sends over Cadamosto who’s well entered up and is another to consider. The one to beat though maybe William Haggas’s Tiber Flow who’s making his turf debut here but is already rated 106 following some excellent efforts on the all-weather. If he can reproduce his synthetic surface form onto turf (or maybe even improve it) he looks the one to beat.

 

TIBER FLOW 2 points win @ 11/4 Betfred

 

Newmarket 1.50

The 10F Fairway Stakes is a listed contest and has attracted a small but select field of 7 this time around. Arguably the form horse is the Tom Clover trained Zain Sarinda who’s 3/4L 3rd to Nahaani in the listed Epsom Blue Riband Derby Trial has already been boosted by the subsequent victory of United Nations who finished 1 1/4L behind him that day. Impressive maiden winners Groundbreaker (Doncaster) and Post Impressionist (Ayr) are likely improvers though didn’t beat much in winning those events whilst the Charlie Appleby trained Ottoman Fleet was given a poor ride by William Buick on his racecourse debut at Newbury when giving the leaders far too much rope but flashed home to only be beaten a neck by stable mate Natural World. The word is that he’s thrived since and he looks the one to be with here under James Doyle.

 

OTTOMAN FLEET 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.10

The Aston Park Stakes is a group 3 contest run over 1m 4F of the Berkshire track. There’s officially only 6lb between the sextet of runners. I don’t fancy Scope who needs further and is burdened by a 7lb penalty here but any of the others could potentially win this. Eshada brings group 1 form here having won the fillies and mares at Ascot’s Champions Day last October but hasn’t been seen since and is penalised 7lb whilst Ilaraab has to shoulder a 3lb penalty and will need to improve for his recent 4th in the John Porter over course and distance. The best in at the weights today is actually the Andrew Balding runner Foxes Tales who was not disgraced on his re-appearance when chasing home the smart Mostahdaf at Sandown and should appreciate the extra couple of furlongs today. A tough call but it’s Foxes Tales for me to small stakes.

 

FOXES TALES 1 point win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 2.25

A decent class 2 6F three year old handicap is up next with a field of just ten going to post. Roger Varian’s Lir Speciale makes his handicap debut having comfortably won his maiden at Doncaster a fortnight ago with the runner up that night finishing 3rd at Salisbury on Thursday. He could be well treated off of 82 although Varian has now gone 20 runs and 12 days since his last winner (up to racing in Friday) so stable form is of some concern. That said he is the one they all have to beat but I prefer the bottom weight Haymaker who to my eyes looks a great each way bet (especially if you can get the extra place been offered by a couple of firms).He made most when winning here over 7F a fortnight ago and I don’t think the drop in trip will hinder him at all. He’s drawn this side in stall 10 of 10 and with the stalls on this, the stands side let’s not forget how much of a bias there can be racing on the stands side rail in the past. The icing on the cake is the booking of crack 7lb apprentice Harry Davies which nullifies his 6lb rise for his latest win and I believe we have ourselves a decent each way bet.

 

HAYMAKER 2 points each way @ 9/2 Bet365 1/5 123

 

 

Newbury 2.45

The BetVictor London Cup is a 10F class 2 handicap that has produced several group performers over the years and has attracted a healthy field of 13 runners this year. This years renewal does have an open look about it with the Gosden’s Israr towards the head of the market following a good 3rd on his re-appearance at Newmarket. Surrey Mist is a horse I like who’s making his handicap debut here for trainer George Baker. His mark of 85 could be workable. There’s many others with chances but the one I’m interested in is the William Muir and Chris Grassick trained Red Vineyard who stuck on well to win at Sandown over this trip on his re-appearance when a seemingly un fancied 18/1 chance. The third that day Bolthole won on Thursday evening (and the runner up Al Qareem runs in the 4.10 York Friday afternoon so keep your eyes peeled for any further form boost). He’s been raised 5lb for that victory but on only his fourth ever start should have plenty of improvement to come and his worth backing each way with the additional place been offered.

 

RED VINEYARD 2 points each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 3.00

With Top Secret a non runner we have eleven going to post for this 7F class 2 handicap which has an open look about it. Shine So Bright broke a long losing spell when winning over course and distance at the Guineas meeting under apprentice Harry Davies and renews rivalry with the runner up that day Wizard D’Amour on 2lb worse terms for a length beating (Humanitarian well held down the field). Bullace is of some interest for Ralph Beckett as he won first time out here last season and has been gelded since we last seen although he still looks high in the handicap (a stone higher than his win here). Charlie Appleby saddles Quintillus who is only 2lb higher than his July course win here last August and was last seen in Dubai. Timeform give him the dreaded squiggle but that looks a bit unfair to my eyes and if tuned up can be thereabouts. The likeliest winner in my opinion though is the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Saleymm who was a good runner up in the Lincoln at Doncaster prior to a slightly disappointing 8th in the Spring Cup (beaten 4 1/2L). Both those efforts were over a mile and he’s dropping a furlong here which hopefully will suit and this Jack Mitchell ridden four year old gets the vote.

 

SALEYMM 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 3.20

The one mile group one Lockinge Stakes sees the re-appearance of William Haggas’s smart Baaeed who’s unbeaten in his six career starts and it’s hard to see what’s going to beat him today. Second favourite Mother Earth hails from Aidan O’Brien’s stable and will strip fit having won already this season, a group 3 at The Curragh seven weeks ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrew Balding’s Alchohol Free stepped up considerably on her Sandown defeat on her re-appearance on better ground and with the hood taken off but she was over 8L behind Baaeed at Ascot last October and it’s hard to see her beating the favourite. A race to savour with no financial interest from me.

 

[black rabbit]

La Pulga       2 45    Newbury    1/5 pt ew   20/1    [ extra plces }   

Auditor   2 25 Newm    1/5 pt  win  19.5    

Bullace   3 00 Newm   1/5 pt win     14/1 

Prospect  4 05 Thirsk   1/5 pt win   14/1

Bright Sovereign    5 00 navan     1/5 pt  ew 33/1    { extra places}

 

 

P/L   + 135.50 pts

Edited May 14, 2022 by black rabbit
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