Racing Chat - Saturday 26th March

[The Brigadier]

Doncaster 1.15

The start of the 2020 turf flat season kicks off with the 5F Brocklesby for two year olds. Won last year by the smart Chipotle this is really a race to watch unless you’re privy to a ‘whisper’ or two. The market will know doubt prove the best guide although Blatant from last years winning connections could be interesting along with by far the most expensive of these, the Amo Racing owned, Richard Hannon trained Persian Force who went through the ring as a foal at 75,000 euros and was later re-sold as a yearling at 225,000 euros. The vibes are that he is a Royal Ascot juvenile and has been well backed in the early exchanges.

 

Doncaster 1.50

The 6F Cammidge Trophy is a listed contest for 3 year olds and upwards and has attracted a field of seven this year (no three year olds mind!) The two best sprinters on official ratings are Charlie Hills’ Garrus and Clive Cox’s Diligent Harry who are rated only a pound between them (in Garrus’s favour). Both hold good chances and with the winner likely to come from one of this duo it’s Garrus that my pin came down on. Hills has had his team in fine shape this winter which augurs well for his early turf runners. A Group 3 winner at Deauville last August he missed a penalty for this race by a couple of days and has Marco Ghiani in the saddle. He should go very close. 

GARRUS 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

 

Kempton 2.05

The listed Magnolia Stakes is run over 1m 2F and has attracted eight runners. Fancy Man is penalised 3lb for his listed win at Lingfield in February (King Of The South and Al Zaraqaan both behind and held today) and subsequently went on to finish an excellent third in the Winter Derby behind smart group performers Alenquer and Lord North. There’s plenty to like about him except the price. Marco Botti’s Felix is a consistent performer on the all weather surfaces and looks sure to be on the premises as the highest rated horse in the line up. The one I’ll take a chance on though is the Roger Varian runner Father Of Jazz. Varian has had a fruitful winter season and if we take the view that his Kingman gelding is more suited to synthetic surfaces than turf he has a major chance and with hopefully all eight running is an excellent each way bet. He can race a bit freely so the application of a first time hood should help his regular rider Callum Shepherd. 

FATHER OF JAZZ 2 points each way @ 5/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

Doncaster 2.25

A disappointing turn out, numbers wise, for the Lincoln consolation race - the SBK Spring mile - a one mile handicap for those that missed the cut for the Lincoln. Only 9 go to post although I do feel there is a good betting opportunity here. There’s plenty to like about John Quinn’s Empirestateofmind who was last seen chasing home the Lincoln favourite Mujtaba at Redcar last October and if straight enough this consistent four year old gelding will be hard to beat. Top weight General Lee also comes here with a solid profile whilst last years third Mostawaa and Michael Dods’s A Boy Named Ivy who’s fallen to a winning mark are dangers. 

EMPIRESTATEOFMIND 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Kempton 2.40

The Queens Prize is a class 2 two mile handicap and has attracted ten runners this season. Favourite and most likely winner is the Godolphin runner Bandinelli who I’m led to believe has done plenty and is ready to go first time out. A progressive stayer last season who’s best effort was over course and distance in November when beating Sleeping Lion. He’s 5lb higher now but like a lot of Charlie Appleby’s horse is likely to thrive as a four year old. Imperium is maybe his biggest threat having won 5 of his 6 races here at Kempton but for me it’s all about Bandinelli who will be ridden by Jack Mitchell. 

BANDINELLI 3 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Doncaster 3.00

Only four go to post for this years renewal of the Doncaster Mile, a listed contest run over the straight mile. Richard Hannon’s Chindit will be hard to beat on his seasonal re-appearance. He’s officially 8lb and more better than his three rivals and is unbeaten in two starts on Town Moor. Last season’s exploits included a Greenham win at Newbury first time out plus subsequent 5th’s in the 2000 Guineas, St James Palace and Prix Jacques Le Marois, all three group one contests so today’s drop into listed company is a big one. Tempus is the rag of the quartet and hard to fancy whilst I prefer William Haggas’s Boosala over Roger Varian’s Royal Champion for second spot. Chindit should win but at the respective price it’s a no bet race for me although if forced maybe a small stakes straight forecast to beat Boosala. 

CHINDIT to beat BOOSALA 1 point win straight forecast

 

Kelso 3.15

Nine mares go to post for this 2m 51yds novicrs’ handicap hurdle with the Nicky Henderson trained Theatre Glory heading the weights and the market. She’s won three of her four starts and wasn’t disgraced in 3rd in a listed contest at Newbury on her other start. Henderson is claiming off of her with Nathan Brennan who has ridden 15 winners from 115 rides in his short career and claims the full 7lb. She looks sure to be thereabouts but has been well found in the market and I’ll take her on with the Milton Harris trained Aliomaana who looks excellent each way value. As the only 4 year old in the field she gets the 10lb age allowance and arrive in great shape having blitzed her rivals at Wincanton a fortnight ago from the front. That appears the way she likes to run so expect regular rider Mitchell Bastyan to be forcing the pace. This is her first venture into handicap company and with the age allowance thrown in looks well in. 

ALIOMAANA 2 points each way @ 5/1 Bet365 1/5^th 123

 

 

Doncaster 3.35

The first big handicap of the flat turf season is the SBK Lincoln handicap, run over the straight one mile and has attracted a maximum field of 22. The draw is inconclusive and personally think you can win from anywhere so let’s not get bogged down with draw statistics and just try and find the best horse in the field. There are three that could be a fair bit better than the current mark and possible group horses but unfortunately they fill the top three spots in the betting. William Haggas has a fine record in this race and saddles three here in Irish Admiral, Ametist and Mujtaba with the latter the most interesting having won all three of his races last season including in handicap company at Redcar from a 8lb lower mark than todays. 5lb claimer Adam Farragher took a fall on the gallops on Friday morning and is replaced by Ciaran Fallon from stall 2 and should go close. The same can be said about Charlie Appleby’s Modern News who should relish stepping up a furlong to a mile here and will be ridden by 7lb claimer Harry Davies, a twice champion pony rider, who looks set to make a big name for himself this season. He’s had a pipe opener already at Meydan in listed company and he appeals as the most likely winner to me. The other ‘sexy’ runner at the head of the market is the Crisford’s Saleymm who comes here having won twice on the all weather over the winter. He’s had a wind operation since we last saw him and is berthed in stall 3. So with the three big guns in stalls 2, 3 and 8 its maybe that the far side is the side to watch. Darkness is an interesting runner for the David O’Meara stable who has an excellent record in the race and has apparently been trained for the race whilst Tom Clover’s Rogue Bear maybe best of the double figure shots from stall 19.

Modern News and Mujtaba were both put up in my ante-post preview at 8/1 and 10/1 respectively and I’m loathe to abandon them now with slight preference for the Godolphin horse. 

MODERN NEWS 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

MUJTABA 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Kelso 3.46

It’s back to Kelso now and a five runner 3m 2F handicap hurdle where a case can be made for each of the quintet. Sultans Pride is chasing a four timer for trainer Gillian Boanas although is up another 5lb here whilst the in form Nick Alexander saddles Wakool who is also in great form winning three of his last four starts. Both have good chances but it’s the bottom weight Kaizer that may be better handicapped today. Trained in Hawick by Ewan Whillans who took over from his father last season and has already won with 8 of his 86 runners since the official switch his seven year old was an impressive 15L winner over course and distance in February off of a handicap mark 11lb lower than today’s. There was certainly nothing wrong with his subsequent second to a very well handicapped horse of Nicky Richards’ back here over half a mile shorter and he will relish stepping back up in trip. A tough race but a small stakes win on Kaizer and Craig Nichol. 

KAIZER 1 point win @ 10/3 BetVictor

 

[black rabbit]

revich    3 35 don  1/5 pt win   50/1    [ from febuary ]

hortzada  3 35 don   1/6 pt ew    50/1    

san andreas    4 16 curr    1/5 pt  win  18/1 

haseefah   3 15 kel   1/4 pt win   12/1 

red wasp   5 21 curr    1/4 pt win    12/1  

nick vedder  4 46 don  1/6 pt ew  18/1 

headscalf lil  1 35 kel  1/6 pt win   11/1 

canastero   2 18  str  1/6 pt win  12/1 

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 125pts  

Edited March 26, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections