Racing Chat - Saturday January 22nd

[The Brigadier]

Eight on ITV Saturday with the finale the clash between Shishkin and Eneregumene. Heres my thoughts:-

 

Haydock 1.25

This grade 2 SkyBet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle is all about the odds on favourite Jonbon. A full brother to the smart Douvan he’s unbeaten in an Irish point to point, Newbury bumper and novice hurdles at Newbury and Ascot all in emphatic style. He’s only run on good to soft ground so todays surface may well be the most taxing he’s raced on but he looks top class and it will be a shock to all at Seven Barrows if Nicky Henderson’s six year old doesn’t take this en route to taking on stable mate Constitution Hill and the Willie Mullins contingent at Cheltenham in the opener on Tuesday. He’s obviously unbackable at his current odds but I do like Scottish challenger Donny Boy trained at Kinneston by Nick Alexander. He too is un-beaten in an Irish point, bumper at Kelso and novice hurdle at Newcastle with his shrewd trainer saying some very nice things about him after his win and he can be backed in the ‘without Jonbon’ market. 

DONNY BOY 1 point win (without Jonbon) 7/1 William Hill

 

Ascot 1.45

A competitive eleven runner 2m 3 1/2F handicap hurdle next up with all bar possibly the total rag Skandiburg having claims. Top weight Garry Clermont, trained by legendary trainer Jonjo O’Neill has as good a chance as any and is the selection. He’s been placed in two top handicap hurdles at the minimum trip this winter and the step up in trip looks likely to suit having won over this trip at Warwick last May. Philip Hobb’s Stellar Magic ran a blinder on his handicap debut at Haydock last month and is another for the short list whilst the Skelton’s Unexpected Party can’t be ruled out following a silver medal run at Wetherby on Boxing Day. A tough race so keep stakes small with preference just for Garry Clermont. 

GARRY CLERMONT 1 point win @ 7/1 Bet365

 

Haydock 2.00

A rather disappointing turn out here of only six for the New One Unibet Hurdle. A warm favourite is Ann Hamilton’s stable star Tommy’s Oscar who is 11lb and upwards superior to his five rivals here on official ratings. If he brings his A game he should really be winning this and complete a four timer in the process. Navajo Pass upset Bueveur D’Air in this contest last year when making all and in first time blinkers it wouldn’t be the greatest of shocks were he to attempt the same tactics under champion jockey elect Brian Hughes and looks the best outsider here although from a punting view I’m happy to watch.

 

Ascot 2.20

Run over just short of three miles this grade 2 mares hurdle has attracted a small but select field of six this year. Western Victory has joined the Emma Lavelle stable from the Irish yard of Declan Queally for a rather cheap looking £80k and is a player here with conditions to suit. Willie Mullins sends over My Sister Sarah , an easy winner at Kempton in November but was a tad disappointing at Leopardstown over Christmas, all be it in better company. She too has an obvious chance along with Dan Skelton’s Molly Olly’s Wishes who looked good winning at Wetherby over 2m back in October but bombed out here the following month. She’s stepping up to three miles now which looks a good move as she won over this trip at Kempton a year ago on her only try at three miles. In a tight contest between the front three she may just have the call with Harry Skelton taking over from Bridget Andrews. 

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES 1 point win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Haydock 2.35

Royal Pagaille took this race, the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase run over 3m 1 1/2F, apart last year when winning by 16L and despite being 7lb higher and having to give weight all round looks to have an outstanding chance at a track where he’s won two of his three starts and will be ridden today by stable jockey Charlie Deutsch. Remastered races off of the same handicap mark that he fell off when going well four out in the Ladbroke Handicap Chase at Newbury in November and was runner up to Enqarde in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase over course and distance the following month. He looked a bit pace less at the end of that contest and a bigger threat to Royal Pagaille may come from the Sandy Thomson trained Empire Steel who was going well when crashing out in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day. He should run well but I expect class to reign here with Royal Pagaille taking this for the second year in succession for the in form trainer Venetia Williams. 

ROYAL PAGAILLE 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.55

A competitive class 2 2m 5F handicap chase where all eight runner have a chance of sorts. Top weight Fanion D’Estruval was an easy winner at Newbury last time out and although he has been raised 8lb that is reduced by Lucy Turners 7lb claim here. She takes over from Charlie Deutsch who’s at Haydock to ride the stables star chaser Royal Pagaille. He has every chance today. Jonjo O’Neill’s Palmers Hill has every chance also chasing a hat trick of wins the latest of which came here over a two furlong shorter trip. He has however been raised 8lb for that win. Both Amour De Nuit and Killer Clown come here on the back of wins but again both have been shunted up 7lb for their respective victories. Others also have chances but my selection is top weight Fanion D’Estruval which hopefully could top a great day for trainer Venetia Williams. 

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

 

Taunton 3.15

The 3m 4 1/2F Portman Cup, a race for chasers that haven’t won a grade 1 or 2 chase since 2020 has been won in the last two years by the Paul Nicholls 12 year old Yala Enki and if we can get Evens or just under looks a ranking good bet to win it for the third time. He comes into this in excellent form having won a handicap at Cheltenham 10 weeks ago and despite having to shoulder a 4lb penalty today is still officially 5lb superior to her nearest rival, the out of form Elegant Escape who hasn’t shown anything like his old form in his last four starts spanning over two years. The next two in the betting Full Back and Ramses De Teillee have 16lb and 11lb to find and with Yala Enki’s usual partner Bryony Frost likely to get him out in front popping away will be very hard to beat. 

YALA ENKI 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.35

We’ll save the best for last! This years 2m 1F grade 1 Clarence House Chase features the first (hopefully of many) match up’s of the two best two mile chasers in training. Shishkin has only ever been beaten once under rules and that was when falling at the 2nd on his hurdles debut. He’s six from six over over fences including last years Arkle Chase and showed his well being with an emphatic victory on his re-appearance at Kempton over Christmas from this year’s Tingle Creek winner Greaneteen. His big rival today is the Willie Mullins trained Energumene who’s unbeaten in five starts over fences, impressing with his style of victory on each occasion. The latest coming when easily dispatching of his four rivals at Cork early in December. The tactics will be very interesting as Energumene appears to like to bowl along at the front of things whilst Shishkin, like so many of Nicky Henderson’s superstars, can hit a flat spot but has never been stronger than at the finish. Last years winner First Flow looks a tasty price for one that won so well then and comes here on the back of a comfortable Peterborough Chase victory in December with Amoola Gold making up the numbers and this looks a race to savour. It’s hard to split the two big guns with only officially one pound between then (in Shishkin’s favour) but at the prices l’ll just be with the Irish challenger Energumene who might just run the race out of Henderson’s superstar Shishkin. 

ENERGUMENE 1 point win 7/4 Bet365

 

[calva decoy]

Lots of sunshine at Taunton & Ascot forecast for Saturday where at Ascot I generally follow V.Williams chasers & P.Nicholls hurdlers so fingers crossed for true racing whereas mostly cloudy forecast for Haydock that's if all 3 pass jack frost .

There's a Winter Oaks at Lingfield over 10f , bit weird , American & not British distance .

Edited January 21, 2022 by calva decoy