Bundesliga II Predictions > Dec 3rd - 5th

[Benny1887]

Hansa Rostock - Ingolstadt (04.12.)

Ingolstadt (+0.5) @1.90 (Singbet)

Odds would have been too high anyway because it is a well-known fact that Rostock have enormous difficulties to make the running at home, and they also did not manage to beat Sandhausen (1:1) and in their last home game, Aue (1:2). They are rather a counter side that does not find solutions against defensive opponents. So, they actually should not be -0.5 like ever in this league because as long as they do not hold the lead, they will always have big problems to come to chances. 

 

But today news have been published that only 1000 fans will be allowed, and those tickets will be given to deprived people, so no fan support will be expected. This is a big blow for the team that has the perhaps home atmosphere of all BL2 sides. It is painful for them to be without their amazing support, and it will be even tougher to make the running and crack a deep defense without their fans.

 

Concerning Ingolstadt, they have been improving dramatically in the last few games. Results have not rewarded them yet, but they are not really comparable with the team of early season anymore (also due to important players having returned from injuries). They are still weak, of course, but not really worse than Rostock, and especially in their last two away games, they played very well as underdogs. This should be a very close game, and I can imagine very well that Rostock in this spot is the ideal place to get the first season victory or at least not lose.

[Benny1887]

21 hours ago, Benny1887 said:

Hansa Rostock - Ingolstadt (04.12.)

Ingolstadt (+0.5) @1.90 (Singbet)

Odds would have been too high anyway because it is a well-known fact that Rostock have enormous difficulties to make the running at home, and they also did not manage to beat Sandhausen (1:1) and in their last home game, Aue (1:2). They are rather a counter side that does not find solutions against defensive opponents. So, they actually should not be -0.5 like ever in this league because as long as they do not hold the lead, they will always have big problems to come to chances. 

 

But today news have been published that only 1000 fans will be allowed, and those tickets will be given to deprived people, so no fan support will be expected. This is a big blow for the team that has the perhaps home atmosphere of all BL2 sides. It is painful for them to be without their amazing support, and it will be even tougher to make the running and crack a deep defense without their fans.

 

Concerning Ingolstadt, they have been improving dramatically in the last few games. Results have not rewarded them yet, but they are not really comparable with the team of early season anymore (also due to important players having returned from injuries). They are still weak, of course, but not really worse than Rostock, and especially in their last two away games, they played very well as underdogs. This should be a very close game, and I can imagine very well that Rostock in this spot is the ideal place to get the first season victory or at least not lose.

Corona cases at Ingolstadt - not clear who and how many. I wouldn't bet among those circumstances anymore and wait for further news
 

Cheers

[malabgd]

Werder Bremen vs Erzgebirge Aue

2021-12-03T18:30+01:00

 

Werder Bremen

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Rapp (11/2 d), Chiarodia (0/0 d), Schmidt (11/1 m), Dinkci (11/0 f)(all Covid-19), Woltemade (2/0 f), Nankishi (6/0 f)

Suspended:

 

Erzgebirge Aue

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Bussmann (10/1 d), Zolinski (12/0 m), Ferjani (0/0 d), Gnjatić (0/0 m), Ballas (0/0 d), Cacutalua (0/0 d)

Suspended: Fandrich (11/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics

Werder Bremen scored at least one goal in 86% of home games.

64% chance that both Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge Aue will score in this game.

43% chance that both Werder Bremen and Erzgebirge Aue will score in second-half.

93% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game.

36% chance that there will be a draw at half-time and draw at full-time.

[Benny1887]

Darmstadt - Fortuna Dusseldorf (03.12.)

Fortuna Dusseldorf (+0.75) @1.79 (Pinnacle)

To make it brief and short: 2-3 weeks ago, this would have went in as +0.25 1.95 or so on Dusseldorf. Due to Darmstadt's winning streak and Dusseldorf's bad results, the market is overreacting which results in way too one-sided odds for this match. In theory, Düsseldorf actually even have the better squad with the better individual players.

Darmstadt are among the most positive surprises of the season, especially because their 4-4-2 with two strikers, Tietz + Pfeiffer, works extremely well. Both strikers are on fire. Düsseldorf will react with 3 defenders today which should be a good idea, so that they will always have a numerical advantage. In general, Düsseldorf have extreme problems in making the running, but the role as an underdog is much more suitable for them. They made one of their best season games at Hamburg when they were underdogs and had less ball possession than their opponent. It also not by chance that they collect more points away than at home. Also, Darmstadt is not as good as the table shows, they should rather end somewhere between 4th and 7th rank.

Those odds are definitely too large on Dusseldorf. They are much better when they do not have to make the running and despite some missings, they should be at least on eyes level in terms of quality. Those big odds do not reflect the quality gap between both sides.

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

SV Sandhausen

They are in poor state, suffering a three-match losing streak, which makes them down to the seventeenth in the table of the League. They play poorly as host, which have not got any home win this season yet, with only 5 scoring goals but 2 conceding goals in average.

 

SC Paderborn 07

They are sitting in the fourth place in the table of the League. Although there are just six points separating them from the first, it is not easy for them to upgrade. They are not in good condition, which have been winless for two matches. Luckily they are good at away games, with over 70% unbeaten rate.

 

Verdict:

SV Sandhausen are weak in home game while SC Paderborn 07 are good at away games. Besides, SV Sandhausen are poor state. It is predicted that SC Paderborn 07 are going to win in upcoming game.

 

Prediction: 1-3, 1-2

[Benny1887]

Sandhausen - Paderborn (03.12.)

Paderborn (+0) @1.84 (Pinnacle)

The market is overreacting here on the lineups. Paderborn is without superstar Michel and his partner Platte, and the lineup is surprising. But still, they should never be +0 against poor Sandhausen.

In fact, the probably second worst team in the league plays against one of the best ones. Paderborn have a lot of pace upfront with their changes in the lineup. Sandhausen's slow back four should have difficulties with that. Also, the home advantage is minor due to the covid-restrictions.

It's a classic case of market overreacting. No way Paderborn should be +0 against Sandhausen because they are still better on almost every position and obviously have a lot more confidence compared with Sandhausen, who were destroyed two times in a row (conceded 8 goals in 2 games).

[Benny1887]

On 12/1/2021 at 6:12 PM, Benny1887 said:

Hansa Rostock - Ingolstadt (04.12.)

Ingolstadt (+0.5) @1.90 (Singbet)

Odds would have been too high anyway because it is a well-known fact that Rostock have enormous difficulties to make the running at home, and they also did not manage to beat Sandhausen (1:1) and in their last home game, Aue (1:2). They are rather a counter side that does not find solutions against defensive opponents. So, they actually should not be -0.5 like ever in this league because as long as they do not hold the lead, they will always have big problems to come to chances. 

 

But today news have been published that only 1000 fans will be allowed, and those tickets will be given to deprived people, so no fan support will be expected. This is a big blow for the team that has the perhaps home atmosphere of all BL2 sides. It is painful for them to be without their amazing support, and it will be even tougher to make the running and crack a deep defense without their fans.

 

Concerning Ingolstadt, they have been improving dramatically in the last few games. Results have not rewarded them yet, but they are not really comparable with the team of early season anymore (also due to important players having returned from injuries). They are still weak, of course, but not really worse than Rostock, and especially in their last two away games, they played very well as underdogs. This should be a very close game, and I can imagine very well that Rostock in this spot is the ideal place to get the first season victory or at least not lose.

FT 1:1 - bet won - The draw for Ingolstadt was very lucky. Rostock hit the post and bar twice in the first 5 minutes. Ingolstadt then slowly improved and took the lead through a direct free kick. Rostock equalised early in the second half. Afterwards, Rostock were attacking a lot, but Ingolstadt barely allowed anything, so the draw is also not entirely undeserved, but still ofc very lucky.
 

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Darmstadt - Fortuna Dusseldorf (03.12.)

Fortuna Dusseldorf (+0.75) @1.79 (Pinnacle)

To make it brief and short: 2-3 weeks ago, this would have went in as +0.25 1.95 or so on Dusseldorf. Due to Darmstadt's winning streak and Dusseldorf's bad results, the market is overreacting which results in way too one-sided odds for this match. In theory, Düsseldorf actually even have the better squad with the better individual players.

Darmstadt are among the most positive surprises of the season, especially because their 4-4-2 with two strikers, Tietz + Pfeiffer, works extremely well. Both strikers are on fire. Düsseldorf will react with 3 defenders today which should be a good idea, so that they will always have a numerical advantage. In general, Düsseldorf have extreme problems in making the running, but the role as an underdog is much more suitable for them. They made one of their best season games at Hamburg when they were underdogs and had less ball possession than their opponent. It also not by chance that they collect more points away than at home. Also, Darmstadt is not as good as the table shows, they should rather end somewhere between 4th and 7th rank.

Those odds are definitely too large on Dusseldorf. They are much better when they do not have to make the running and despite some missings, they should be at least on eyes level in terms of quality. Those big odds do not reflect the quality gap between both sides.

 

FT 1:3 - bet won - Not an undeserved win for Dusseldorf in the end. In the first half, they were slightly better and had 3:2 chances which resulted in 2:0 goals due to their effieciency. At the beginning of the second half, they were lucky in a few situations, and then the 0:3 decided the game in Dusseldorf's favour.

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Sandhausen - Paderborn (03.12.)

Paderborn (+0) @1.84 (Pinnacle)

The market is overreacting here on the lineups. Paderborn is without superstar Michel and his partner Platte, and the lineup is surprising. But still, they should never be +0 against poor Sandhausen.

In fact, the probably second worst team in the league plays against one of the best ones. Paderborn have a lot of pace upfront with their changes in the lineup. Sandhausen's slow back four should have difficulties with that. Also, the home advantage is minor due to the covid-restrictions.

It's a classic case of market overreacting. No way Paderborn should be +0 against Sandhausen because they are still better on almost every position and obviously have a lot more confidence compared with Sandhausen, who were destroyed two times in a row (conceded 8 goals in 2 games).

FT 1:1 - void - The draw is probably fair, especially because Sandhausen missed a penalty in the first half. However, Paderborn actually were in full control and should have made it 0:2. The equaliser in 90+3 came quite surprising.