Racing Chat - Friday November 26th

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras are at Newbury for 5 races on Friday where the ground will be good to soft (good in places) having being watered earlier in the week. Here’s my thoughts on those five:-

 

Newbury 1.15

A 8 runner novice hurdle that features the hype horse Jonbon who cost a staggering £570k at the Goffs UK sale 2020 following a highly promising 15L win in an Irish point to point. As a full brother to Douvan and the price tag you can see where the hype comes from but at cramped odds is worth watching on his hurdles debut for Nicky Henderson, JP McManus and Nice de Boinville. If the dead eight all go to post there actually might be some each way value against the warm odds on favourite. Good Risk To All won two listed bumpers last season here and at Cheltenham and although turned over at 1/3 on his hurdles debut still remains a decent prospect although he will have to smarten up his jumping. Sam Thomas will o doubt have him well schooled and he will be no pushover for Jonbon and can run well. 

GOOD RISK AT ALL 2 points each way @ 5/2 BetVictor 1/5 123

 

Newbury 1. 50

An interesting 7 runner novices’ handicap chase which features the chase debut of the Harry Fry trained Boothill who is highly regarded by his trainer. He blatantly blew up in a decent handicap hurdle at Ascot on his re-appearance when 3rd to the smart Soaring Glory. He could be smart over fences and the only negative thing about him today is the fact that he’s been so well found in the betting. Top weight Solo ran well on his chase debut when runner up at Ascot and despite a 5lb rise for that effort maybe the each way value here. I say each way as there are a couple of firms (William Hill and Betfred) who are paying 3 places here despite 7 runners and there’s where one need to be placing their bets if of course able. 

SOLO 2 points each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5^th 123

 

Newbury 2.25

A 2m 4F handicap chase which will be run over 16 fences of the Berkshire track. Plenty with coins here but my fancy is top weight Fanion D’Estruval. Trained by Venetia Williams who is beginning to get going now after a typically slow start to the season, winning with 3 of her last 12 runners. He ran an eye-catching race on his reappearance at Aintree when getting detached but running on to such an extent that he went 4th on the run in only to. E beaten 4L by the smart Allmankind. Just 1 1/2L ahead of him that day was Sue Smith’s Midnight Shadow that went onto win the Paddy Power giving the run a good look. There are plenty of others here with chances including David Pipe’s Umbrigado and Harry Fry’s Phoenix Way who’s had a wind op since we saw him last but my money’s on Venetia’s here.

FANION D’ESTRUVAL 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

 

Newbury 3.00

This years renewal of the Long Distance Hurdle run over 3 miles has attracted a field of only 6 but with plenty of quality. 2019 winner winner and last year’s runner up Paisley Park heads the betting but races under a 6lb penalty here and is getting no younger at nine rising ten years of age. He was beaten on his reappearance at Wetherby by Paul Webber’s mare Indefatigable and is now 6lb better off for a 5 1/4L beating. Thomas Darby was behind that day and is tongue tied for the first time today. Mrs Milner has a bit to find but can’t be ruled out here as an improver from Paul Nolan’s stable in Enniscorthy, County Wexford. At the prices I’ll just take Indefatigable to confirm West Yorkshire Hurdle form. 

INDEFATIGABLE 1 point win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Newbury 3.35

A decent sized field of 15 go to post for this 3m handicap hurdle and the race has an open look about it with the layers going 5/1 the field. Fergal O’Brien has his team in fine shape and saddles a brace here in Eyeofthescorpion  who races off of the same mark as when runner up at Ffos Las last time and Polish who was a tad disappointing when well backed last time over course and distance. The pair I like are Ben Pauling’s The Cob who was a decent novice last season winning the River Don at Doncaster in good fashion. Pauling usually does well at this fixture and will no doubt have him ready to go following a 252 day absence. The other I like is the Paul Nicholls trained Saint Sonnet who’s been rather disappointing since joining Nicholls from France but is creeping down the handicap now (9lb for his last three runs) and steps up in trip today which hopefully will unlock some more talent. His latest 7th (beaten 27L) at Cheltenham to Guard Your Dream has worked out very well and he could be the value player here in a wide open handicap. 

SAINT SONNET 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5^th 12345

 

[calva decoy]

With a bit of luck most of the country should get some rain / sleet or snow over the next 10 days so hopefully we'll get horses running on more favourable ground rather than trainers running them because they need a run .