Racing Chat - Saturday 20th November

[The Brigadier]

An interesting afternoon’s racing at Ascot and Haydock where the ground although safe will be more to the liking of the good ground horses than the mudlarks  with the official line from Ascot stating the ground is good whilst Haydock are calling it good to soft (good in places on hurdles track). Here are my thoughts on the days 7 ITV races with the best value bet in the 2.05. 

 

Haydock 1.50

Only 4 go to post for this 2m 5F 127yds graduation chase and this looks booked for team Ditcheat with Bravemansgame a very warm order. He jumped superbly when winning on his fencing debut at Newton Abbot in October from Fusil Raffles despite getting all the allowances. The runner up has franked the form ( by default maybe with Shan Blue’s fall)by taking the Charlie Hall at Wetherby since. On official ratings he’s actually 2lb inferior to his main danger in Itchy Feet from the very much in form team of Olly Murphy but I would be surprised if Paul Nicholl’s charge is not too good for this field en route to to bigger and better targets. He’s too short to back at around 4/7 but maybe worth adding to Buzz in the 2.40 Ascot in a win double. 

BRAVEMANSGAME & BUZZ (2.40 Ascot) 2 points win double

 

Ascot 2.05

A small but select field of six go to post for the 2m 5F 1965 Chase. At the head of the market is the Jeremy Scott trained flag bearer Dashel Drasher who’s unbeaten in four starts here at Ascot but has to carry a 6lb penalty and more importantly is much better on softer ground (he was pulled out at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals on the day on good to soft ground as the ground was not deemed soft enough). He’s opposable on drying ground today. Both Defi Du Seuil and Lostintranslation are making their seasonal re-appearances following disappointing campaigns last season and both have had their wind tinkered with. Preference would be for the latter but to be honest I’m not interested in backing either with question marks over them at around the 7/2 mark. The horse with the least questions  to answer and worth a bet is surely Nicky Henderson’s Pistol Whipped who on ratings is just a pound behind the likes of Master Tommytucker and Bennys King who are significantly shorter in the betting. Good ground is ideal for him and as the youngest in the field may have some improvement to come still. He looks a value bet with Nico de Boinville in the saddle. If you are privy to a Betfred account then they are betting 1/5th three places here in this 6 runner contest and that looks the way to go. 

PISTOL WHIPPED 2 points each way 12/1 @ Betfred 1/5^th 123

 

Haydock 2.25

The most competitive race of the day is this 16 runner 3m+ Stayers Handicap Hurdle which threw up a nice staying prospect in Main Fact last season. As much as I rate Irish trainer Emmet Mullins I can’t have bottom weight Rightplacerighttime who is 17lb higher in the ratings over here than his Irish handicap mark.  Riggs has apparently been trained for the race and has an attractive low weight whilst Flight Deck is a horse who only does enough and his form was boosted by Thursdays win for Teescomponents Lad at Market Rasen. Sandy Thomson’s Bass Rock’s recent form was also boosted by that one winning on Thursday and he looks a horse who could still be well handicapped with a longer trip likely to suit. He’s on my short list. The other one I like is Philip Hobb’s Orbys Legend who is also stepping up in trip here. He’s only lightly raced and if staying this far could be too good for them all. He’s up 8lb for his Chepstow victory from Didntheyleaveuoutto who re-opposes today. The unseasonal Haydock ground of good to soft may not suit the likes of Storm Arising and the Pipe pair of Brinkley and Martinhal although their trainer does have an excellent record  in this race. I’ll play two against the field each way at enhanced place terms in Orbys Legend and Bass Rock in what looks an ultra competitive handicap hurdle. 

ORBYS LEGEND 1 point each way @ 13/2 1/5 12345 BetVictor

BASS ROCK 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5^th 123456 William Hill

 

Ascot 2.40

Only 5 have declared for the Coral Hurdle run over 2m 5F and I find it hard to look past Nicky Henderson’s Buzz who was last seen when running away with the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October on the level. He showed an abundance of stamina that day and to my eyes looks a lively outsider for the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in March for which he’s currently a top priced 20/1 with Bet365. Goshen much prefers softer ground and has to shoulder a 6lb penalty whilst the same can be said about last years winner Song For Someone. Molly Olly’s Wishes arrives in good form and is maybe the one to chase Buzz home. 

BUZZ 2 points win @ 11/10 Bet365

 

Haydock 3.00

A good renewal of the 3m 1F 125yds Betfair Chase where it may be wise to oppose the front two in the market. The best horse in the race is last years Cheltenham Gold Cup runner up A Plus Tard but he’s been beaten first time out the last three seasons and I can let him win at around 6/4. Bristol De Mai is looking for a fourth win in this race and we know for sure he’ll be fully tuned up for the gig today. The issue with him is that he most definitely prefers much softer ground - proper soft Haydock ground and although he did win this back in 2018 on good ground in a fast time he’s three years older now and may just get run off his feet.  The ground is also too fast for Royale Pagaille and I’m surprised he’s actually running. Waiting Patiently is the most interesting horse to me in the field now he’s left Ruth Jefferson to join Christian Williams. No matter what the figures may tell you in my eyes this is a serious trainer upgrade and although he too would prefer slower ground is worth chancing each way (fingers crossed all 8 stand their ground). Brian Hughes know the horse well and rides today - he is on his day a seriously talented horse. I’m rather annoyed with myself as he was sat there at 20/1 only a fortnight ago for this race and I never availed myself of it but hey ho that’s racing for you! 

WAITING PATIENTLY 1 point each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 123 William Hill

 

Ascot 3.15

An interesting 7 runner handicap chase run over 2m 167yds with only 7 going to post. Favourite Before Midnight made all to win at Cheltenham last month with Sky Pirate, who was having his first run of the season, 6L back in the silver medal position. On 8lb better terms they should be closer here but the way Sam Thomas’s Before Midnight travelled and finished his race off that day I fully expect him to come out on top once more. The other piece of recent form that needs to be analysed is the handicap run over course and distance three weeks ago when Amoola Gold came from the clouds to get up and pip Monsieur Lecoq on the line under an inspired ride from Bridget Andrews. The pair (and the 23L 5th Sully D’Oc AA) re-oppose today with the weights just in favour of Jane William’s Monsieur Lecoq. There shouldn’t be much between that pair and it would not be a shock were the 5th Sully D’Oc AA get a fair bit closer with that run under his belt and now 6lb and 5lb respectively better off with them. The Paul Nicholls pair Dolos and Diego Du Charmil have claims on back form but don’t really inspire at present so the selection for me has to be the upwardly mobile front runner Before Midnight. 

BEFORE MIDNIGHT 2 points win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Haydock 3.35

This race has fallen apart at the 48 hour stage and a strong fancy for this 3m 1F 125yds handicap chase is the Christian Williams trained Strictlyadancer. As big as 11/2 only two days ago he’s now a warm 6/4 chance and will be very hard to beat. He landed a bit of a gamble last time out in a amateur riders handicap chase at Cheltenham under Ben Bromley following up from a win in a similar contest at the previous meeting there. He’s gone up just 12lb for that brace of wins and looks still ahead of his mark for his under rated trainer who hopefully may already have the Betfair Chase in the bag! Jack Tudor is in the saddle and he’s excellent value for his 3lb claim. 

STRICTLYADANCER 3 points win @ 13/8 William Hill

 

[yossa6133]

Probably a good time to back Waiting Patiently for the King George, 28/1 looks decent to me. Went close last year despite getting going too late off the slow pace. New yard might get something extra from him.