Racing Chat - Monday 1st November

[Darran]

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.

 

Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.

 

Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.

 

Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.

 

Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front. 

 

Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.

 

Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

[ipswich45]

looks like we have beach racing on the cards at Laytown    seems a bit late this year??