Racing Chat- Saturday September 18th

[The Brigadier]

A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- 

Ayr 1.55

Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. 

JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill 

 

Newbury 2.15

The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. 

KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ayr 2.30

A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. 

BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 123456 Boylesports 

 

Newbury 2.50

Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor

 

Ayr 3.05

A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 3.25

A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a  long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. 

MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Ayr 3.40

As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also  drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. 

GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234567 Paddy Power

HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 

 

Newbury 4.00

The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. 

DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ayr 4.15

A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile  for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. 

HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

A very interesting afternoon’s racing with the ground hopefully riding fast at Ayr for their final day of the Gold Cup meeting and just on the easy side at Newbury. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV contests :- 

Ayr 1.55

Addeybb unfortunately misses the listed Doonside Cup, run over 10F due to the unseasonably fast ground and in his absence this looks a great opportunity for the Kevin Ryan trained Juan Elcano to get back to winning ways. He won the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and has not been disgraced in group company since. Back in calmer waters and with conditions to suit he’ll be hard to beat with Kevin Stott taking over from his regular rider Andrea Atzeni who has a full quota of rides at Newbury. Maydanny ran flat last time and needs to bounce back whilst the biggest threat to the selection is Euchen Glen who has the same official mark as Juan Elcano but has to bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts. 

JUAN ELCANO 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill 

 

Newbury 2.15

The Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over the minimum trip and has attracted a strong field of eight with only 9lb officially covering the whole field. Khaadem appeared to relish dropping back to this trip when winning at Doncaster 10 days ago and has to be on anyone’s short list. Charlie Hill’s five year old had become a tad disappointing but maybe the trip will give him a chance to fulfil his potential finally. Tis Marvellous produced his best ever effort when winning the Beverley Bullet last time and yet another that looks sure to be involved in the finish. Kings Lynn was a bit flat last time and is overlooked for that reason alone whilst Hurricane Ivor comes here on the back of a late finishing victory in the Portland Handicap last Saturday and cannot be ruled out either. A tough call but slight preference is for Khaadem who has speed to burn. 

KHAADEM 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ayr 2.30

A maximum field of 25 go to post for the Silver Cup and I have a strong fancy all be it at the front of the market. Blackrod goes unpenalised for his York apprentice handicap victory at their Ebor meeting so is effectively 5lb well in today (8lb if you take apprentice Billy Garrity’s claim into account as he couldn’t claim in the York race) He got away with the drop to 5F that day finishing strongly at the end and will appreciate the step back up to 6F here. This is only his 8th career run and looks a future pattern performer nestling towards the bottom of this handicap. The draw in 10 is a bit of an unknown but fingers crossed it won’t have an adverse affect on his chance and with plenty of fully exposed sprinters in the race Blackrod is a strong fancy who should be backed each way with enhanced place terms. 

BLACKROD 3 points each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 123456 Boylesports 

 

Newbury 2.50

Only five go to post for the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes with a very warm favourite in the William Haggas trained Al Aasy who’s two from two at this track. He has 7lb and upwards in hand on official figures and despite disappointing last time at Newmarket in July that came on rattling fast ground which doesn’t suit him. He’s been given the cruelest cut of the lot since and if back to anywhere near his two victories over slightly further here in the Spring will be very hard to beat. Foxes Tales comes here in decent form but may ideally prefer softer ground whilst the penalised Solid Stone and Al Aasy’s stable companion Ilaraab will have to raise their games to turn over the favourite. He’ll be skinny but I find it hard to see past him. 

AL AASY 3 points win @ 5/6 Bet Victor

 

Ayr 3.05

A decent sized field here as 15 go to post for the Group 3 Fifth Of Clyde Fillies Stakes. Likely favourite is Head Mistress who’s coming over from Ger Lyon’s County Meath base with his trainer in red hot form winning with 6 of his last 28 runners. She’s already won in listed company at The Curragh and is no doubt the one they all have to beat here. The one negative maybe her draw in stall 1, with the stalls in the centre means she’ll be on the flank with no cover. Scot’s Grace was a fancy of mine when getting no run last time out in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton but does have to prove her effectiveness on turf whilst fast ground looks against Choux. Hellmydarlin arguably brings the best form to the race with an official mark of 102 but this will be her eight race of the season and may not have as much scope as some of the others. The most interesting runner for me however is the Kevin Ryan trained Hala Hala Athmani. A half sister to the same owners smart sprinter Hello Youmzain ( who incidentally also won a maiden at Carlisle on his journey to the top) was super impressive when winning on her debut in a moderate 6F Carlisle maiden. All those that have run from that race from down the field have been beaten and there’s little doubt it was a modest contest but having fallen out the stalls and running green ended up winning easily by 6L. She falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and at an each way price I’ll be backing her with a small saver on Head Mistress who’s already got the form in the book. 

HALA HALA ATHMANI 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

HEAD MISTRESS 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Newbury 3.25

A valuable £50k 10F handicap is up next with likely favourite being the William Haggas trained Aramaic who was very well supported when winning on his handicap debut at York earlier in the month. He’s up 7lb for that but is very much a player here. King Leonidas is an intriguing runner who has been working with Thursday evening’s Chelmsford winner Sunday Major. John & Thady Gosden’s Kingman colt has a  long layoff to overcome and makes his handicap debut off of a very high mark of 102. Watch him in the market. The drop in trip may not be ideal for Sam a Cooke whilst Injazati has been shunted up 6lb for a win in a five runner class 4 all weather handicap at Newcastle. The horse I’m very interested in here is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mo’assess who makes his handicap debut today off of a mark of 93. He’s stepping up in trip and actually has a defeat of the favourite already on his CV when at level weights he defeated him by a neck at Kempton in early August. He’s receiving a pound today so there shouldn’t be too much between them. He’s gone in again at Kempton since when making all for a comfortable success under today’s jockey Ray Dawson. Being by Pivotal he won’t mind a bit of give in the ground and can reward an each way wager. 

MO’ASSESS 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Ayr 3.40

As always a maximum field has assembled for the Ayr Gold Cup. More will no doubt be known about the draw once the Silver Cup has been digested a hour earlier but in the hope that low numbers may have the call I will be backing the favourite in Great Ambassador here and a big priced outsider who is also  drawn very low. The last time we had a fast ground Ayr Gold Cup was back in 2014 when there was a fair split of low and high numbers at the finish so here’s hoping the best horses come to the fore. Great Ambassador is a progressive sprinter who’s in top form, trained by Ed Walker who’s running at a amazing 39% win ratio at present and loves fast ground. He looks sure to be thereabouts and will be my main bet. I have plenty of respect for Comanche Falls who comes here having won the Scottish and English Stewards Cups rising 10lb in the process and it would be no shock were he to run a big race. He’s drawn next to Great Ambassador in stall 2 and it’s the horse berthed one along in stall 3 that interests me at a price. Hey Jonesy, one of two Kevin Ryan runners in the race, has been running on soft ground this season (bar his re-appearance when 7F was too far and possibly fitness was an issue) and has dropped 4lb for those efforts to a mark of 98 which is 1lb lower than when he won last season’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot on good ground when blinkered for the first time. He’s undoubtably well handicapped for a trainer who’s won this race twice in the last ten years and has the assistance of Megan Nicholls, my favourite female jockey. At a big price with enhanced odds he’s worth playing each way as well. 

GREAT AMBASSADOR 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 1234567 Paddy Power

HEY JONESY 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 ¼ 12345 Bet365 

 

Newbury 4.00

The 6F Mill Reef Stakes is a two year Group 2 contest which has attracted a decent sized field of ten. Well backed throughout the week has been the John and Thady Gosden trained Dhabab who has had a ten week break since his 1 1/2L third in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket behind Native Trail and Masekela. Both of those have franked the form since with the latter winning the listed Washington Singer from Bayside Boy (won since) and the former now ranked as the best two year old around following his comfortable win in the Group 1 National Stakes last weekend in Ireland. Dhabab looked likely to win that day only to seemingly run out of stamina close home and the drop back to 6F looks a good move. Although the figures may not suggest it (he comes out joint 4th here on official ratings) he will be hard to beat. Plenty of the others bring decent group form to the table noticeably Gis A Sub who was runner up in the Gimcrack (Fearby 1 1/4L behind that day) and Gubbas who was third in the Richmond at Goodwood (Gis A Sub 2 1/4L behind that day). The latter maybe the biggest threat to Dhabab here. A lively big priced outsider is the John Ryan trained Manaccan who impressed when winning at Newmarket last month from Wajd and Reversion who have both won since. He could hit the frame at a price but for me it’s all about Dhabab. 

DHABAB 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Ayr 4.15

A tricky looking class 2 1M handicap where many have got good chances. Dance Fever will love the fast conditions and falls into that bracket along with Cruyff Turn who’s won three of his last four starts but is creeping up the handicap and has to race off of a career high mark of 98 now. Shelir is a consistent sort but always seems to find a way of getting beat. Garden Oasis is the other Easterby runner (alongside Cruyff Turn) and he too has had a fruitful season winning four times and like his stable mate has to race off of a career high mark of 91 (that’s not to say mind that he can’t be very competitive today). I’m drawn to the Richard Fahey trained Hong Kong Harry and that’s the one I’ll be playing here. A lightly raced gelding this is only his 7th career start and is two from two at the track having won twice at Ayr in the Spring on fast ground. He’s stepping up to a mile  for the first time today and the way he finished over 7 1/2F at Lingfield in a racing league handicap suggests that a mile won’t be a problem. 

HONG KONG HARRY 2 points each way @ 13/2 1/5^th 1234 Boylesports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cracking write up as usual .

In the 4 races at Ayr over 5 & 5.5f on Thursday & Friday the winners have come from two from stall 8 , one from stall 9 & one from stall 4 .

Edited September 17, 2021 by calva decoy