Anytime Goalscorer Experiment

[harry_rag]

Had this idea rattling around my head for a while, will try it out on here. Be easier to explain it in the process of listing the variables.

Spread Prices - I'll capture the best buy and sell prices with SPIN and SX and their midpoint, e.g. if a player can be bought at 26 and sold at 24 then the midpoint is 25. This gives me a notional "true" value for everything that follows. I'll stick to players in the 20-35 range which roughly equates to anytime odds between evens and 2/1.

Fair odds - I'll use the midpoint to assess the fair or "true" odds for each player via a poisson based calculation. I'll track the P/L for backing or laying at that price (I'd expect backing to be loss making).

Lay odds - I'll track the return from laying at the fair odds less a 10% edge. I'd expect this to be profitable which is not to say it would always be possible to get matched at that price.

Back odds - I'll track the return from backing at the fair odds plus a 10% edge. I'd expect this to be close to break even. You would probably be more likely to get matched on a back than a lay.

Best odds - I'll note the best available odds for each player on Oddschecker for reference (but ignoring any significantly larger odds with firms that I don't have accounts with).

Status - I'll note whether the player starts, comes on as sub or is a non-runner. I'll be getting these selections done early rather than waiting for line ups throughout the day.

Lay £ - I'll place a lay bet of £10 on each player at the lay odds (shorter if available) and record any matched stake and the cumulative return. This will help to establish whether laying would be viable (in terms of getting matched often enough) as well as profitable. I won't be doing the same for back bets as the player not starting would be a negative for backers.

Results - I'll record how many goals the players score and their actual goal minutes make ups to see how what happens compares to what the prices predicted.

Purpose is broadly to test the validity of a few theories that I have and see if there's a way to make a profit by using the spreads to identify value backs or lays. I'm aiming to run this until I've got a sample of at least 100 players who start. To anyone who's still reading, thanks and well done! 

[harry_rag]

Will get it started with 3 players in tonight's Copa America game. Neymar's priced up too highly on the spreads and is, indeed, odds on across the board with the fixed odds firms.

Home	Away	Player	Sell	Buy	Mid	Fair	Lay	Back	Best
Brazil	Peru	Barbosa	28	31	29.5	2.24	2.02	2.47	2.2
Brazil	Peru	Richarlison	23	24	23.5	2.67	2.40	2.93	2.4
Brazil	Peru	Firmino	20	22	21	2.92	2.62	3.21	2.4

Hopefully that makes sense, e.g. the spread value of 21 for Firmino gives fair odds of 2.92 to score anytime. He would be a lay at 2.62, a back at 3.21 and is best priced 2.4 on Oddschecker. I can hopefully bed this in while there's not too much footy and have it running smoothly before the domestic season gets underway. Any questions, just read it all again!