harry_rag Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Mainz RB Leipzig Silva 34 35 34.5 2.01 1.81 2.21 2.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 15, 2021 Author Share Posted August 15, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Spurs Man C Mahrez 21 21 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 You wait ages for a scorer and three come along at once! Moffi, Fernandes and Greenwood all managed to hit the back of the net. You'd still be in front by laying and down if backing. I'll pull some more coherent data together once we've got a slightly bigger sample. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Villarreal Granada Moreno 32 35 33.5 2.05 1.84 2.25 2.2 Villarreal Granada Dia 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Millwall Fulham Mitrovic 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Bristol C Swansea Martin 21 22 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 3.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Brest PSG Icardi 31 33 32 2.12 1.90 2.33 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best R Betis Cadiz Iglesias 25 28 26.5 2.43 2.19 2.67 2.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Liverpool Burnley Jota 26 28 27 2.40 2.16 2.64 2.3 Liverpool Burnley Mane 25 27 26 2.47 2.22 2.71 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best QPR Barnsley Austin 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, harry_rag said: Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best QPR Barnsley Austin 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 3 Scratch that one, no anytime market on BF so no option to try and lay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best A Viila Newcastle Ings 30 32 31 2.16 1.95 2.38 2.25 C Palace Brentford Toney 19 22 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.625 Leeds Everton Bamford 24 26 25 2.54 2.29 2.80 2.5 Leeds Everton Calvert-Lewin 19 21 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 2.875 Man C Norwich Jesus 32 34 33 2.07 1.86 2.28 2.15 Man C Norwich Torres 30 31 30.5 2.19 1.97 2.41 2.15 Man C Norwich Gundogan 27 26 26.5 2.43 2.19 2.67 2.75 Man C Norwich Grealish 19 22 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Matched on Toney, laid 10 points at 2.68. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Alaves Mallorca Joselu 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Leverkusen BMG Schick 26 28 27 2.40 2.16 2.64 2.7 Inter Genoa Dzeko 33 32 32.5 2.09 1.88 2.30 2.15 Verona Sassuolo Caputo 19 21 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Brighton Watford Maupay 18 21 19.5 3.10 2.79 3.41 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Wolves Spurs Jiminez 19 22 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.9 Wolves Spurs Son 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 3 Southampton Man U Fernandes 27 28 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 2.25 Southampton Man U Greenwood 21 21 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.6 Southampton Man U Martial 19 21 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 2.625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Hoffenheim Union Berlin Kramaric 27 29 28 2.33 2.10 2.57 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Arsenal Chelsea Lukaku 26 27 26.5 2.43 2.19 2.67 2.4 B Munich Koln Gnabry 22 22 22 2.81 2.53 3.09 2.4 B Munich Koln Muller 20 23 21.5 2.86 2.58 3.15 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Udinese Juventus Morata 23 25 24 2.62 2.36 2.89 2.7 Udinese Juventus Dybala 25 25 25 2.54 2.29 2.80 2.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Ok, the data's starting to look a bit more realistic now though I think we've still got an unusually low strike rate for goalscorers which will make laying and selling look better than they really are. Here's some observations. We've now had 55 starters and 17 of them have scored, 20 goals in total. That gives us average actual odds of 3.24 compared to 2.61 average best bookies odds. Had you been able to lay every player at the target lay odds it would have returned 13.68 points profit. As it is though, I've only been matched on 5 players (3 fully for £10 and 2 part matched) for a profit of £37.70. Had you backed every player at the target back odds you'd have lost 5.43 points. In reality, you'd have much more success getting a back matched than a lay. The reality of it is that there is usually liquidity to back players at prices as good as or better than the best price on Oddschecker, making laying at the target price quite difficult. Selling every player's goal minutes for £1 per point would have yielded a profit of 465 points, buying on the same basis would have cost you 557. The average mid-point of the prices has been 24.76 while the average make up has been just 15.05. The profit from selling would have been £8.45 per bet. My experience with selling (albeit at higher prices) suggests that just under £7 per bet would be a more realistic return. Will press on till at least a 100 player sample. Early conclusions; maybe the obvious message will just be sell, sell, sell! Laying at the target lay odds will probably be profitable on paper but not viable in reality giving how rare getting matched will be. It may be possible to identify a lay price that is profitable and achievable (but what's the point if selling knocks it into a cocked hat)! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Cagliari Spezia Pedro 28 31 29.5 2.24 2.02 2.47 2.5 Cagliari Spezia Pavoletti 19 22 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Sampdoria AC Milan Quagliarella 20 20 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 2.9 Sampdoria AC Milan Giroud 28 30 29 2.27 2.04 2.50 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best West Ham Leicester Antonio 19 21 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 2.8 West Ham Leicester Vardy 19 21 20 3.03 2.73 3.34 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Man C Arsenal Jesus 25 27 26 2.47 2.22 2.71 2.85 Man C Arsenal Torres 23 25 24 2.62 2.36 2.89 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best A Viila Brentford Ings 21 23 22 2.81 2.53 3.09 2.75 Brighton Everton Calvert-Lewin 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 3.1 Newcastle Southampton Wilson 22 24 23 2.71 2.44 2.98 2.4 Norwich Leicester Vardy 26 29 27.5 2.36 2.13 2.60 2.46 West Ham C Palace Antonio 28 30 29 2.27 2.04 2.50 2.4 Matched for 10 points lay on Ings at 2.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Matched for 10 points lay on Ings at 2.52 And 10 points lay of Wilson at 2.44. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Celta Vigo A Bilbao Aspas 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Home Away Player Sell Buy Mid Fair Lay Back Best Liverpool Chelsea Salah 20 22 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.7 Liverpool Chelsea Lukaku 20 21 20.5 2.97 2.68 3.27 2.7 B Munich H Berlin Gnabry 21 21 21 2.92 2.62 3.21 2.625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Layed Gnabry for 10 points at 2.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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