Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June

[The Brigadier]

Day Three of Royal Ascot and its very tricky to predict what the ground is likely to be with a band of thunderstorms coming up from the South. So a word of caution regarding punting and it maybe worth waiting till the morning to see how the ground lies before departing with any of our hard earned. Anyway here’s my initial thoughts.

 

Ascot 230

16 go to post for the Norfolk Stakes run over 5F for 2 year olds. Once again as with all the juvenile races this week we have the added puzzle of not one but two Wesley Ward youngsters. Lucci and Nakatomi are both winners of one on firm ground and on a dirt surface respectively. One may well win but from a punting aspect I’m happy to ignore and with the two collectively taking a fair chunk out of the market I’m looking for some value elsewhere. Aidan O’Brien’s Cadamosto is my idea of the winner with Ryan Moore in the saddle. He was impressive when winning at Dundalk on his debut in April and staggeringly has been pulled out on the day of the race four times since for various reasons (twice because of soft ground). If the rain did come in buckets then I would be against both the American horses and Cadamosto and would probably take a chance with soft ground Ascot winner Go Bears Go. A hard race to get a handle on without knowing how much rain will fall on the Berkshire course. 

On good ground CADAMOSTO 1 point each way @ 11/2 Bet 365 1/5^th 1234

On soft ground GO BEARS GO 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet 365 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 305

The ground is crucial once again here for the 10F Hampton Court Stakes. I would be very strong on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth who missed the Derby on fast ground but if the forecast is right they may well be unlucky again. On fast ground he would be worth a good bet. If the ground turns then the penalised One Ruler who has plenty of smart juvenile form on soft ground to his name and comes here on the back of 6th’s in the 2000 Guineas and Derby could be the answer. This is one race where the ground is crucial. 

MOHAAFETH 3 points win @ 15/8 William Hill  (no bet if ground good to soft or worse)

 

Ascot 340

The Ascot Oaks - the Ribblesdale Stakes over 12F has a field of 13 with the Epsom Oaks form represented by Aidan O’Brien’s Divinely who was 3rd and Dubai Fountain who was way down the field in 12th. Eshaada is a very interesting runner who needed her comeback run but still won at Newbury from Gloria Mundi and is suited by soft ground so the more rain that falls the better for her. She’ll improve for the step up as well and looks to my eyes to have a big chance. Sir Michael Stoute’s runner Noon Star’s 2nd spot in the Musidora looked disappointing at the time but to run the subsequent runaway Oaks winner Snowfall to  3 3/4L was no mean feat and she must go well here stepping up in trip having missed Epsom with a slight issue. Hard to split Eshaada and Noon Star with preference just for the latter. 

NOON STAR 3 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Ascot 415

The 2m 4F Ascot Gold Cup has been won the last three years by the superstar stayer of John Gosden’s Stradivarius and he’s out here to equal Yeats record of four Ascot Gold Cups between 2006-2009. He’s won 6 of his 9 starts at the track with arguably his best ever effort coming last year on soft ground when showing an amazing turn of foot for a stayer. Frankie Dettori knows him in and out and don’t be surprised if he’s coltish before proceedings - that’s just him. I hope he wins and I also think he will win. Any rain will be in favour of Trueshan who was so impressive here over 2 miles on Champions Day last Autumn but he needs Autumn soft rather than Summer soft! Subjectivist was last seen winning the Dubai Gold Cup in March but he’s never raced beyond 2 miles though should stay this extreme trip. It promises to be one of the races of the meeting and I’m with Stradivarius. 

STRADIVARIUS  4 points win @ 11/10 Bet365

 

Ascot 5.00

30 go to post over the straight mile for this years Britannia Handicap and as always it looks wide open. I can pass on a good word for the Sir Mark Prescott trained Royal Pleasure but if I had a choice I would want to be with the high numbers and he’s berthed in stall 3. Mithras looks to have a very solid chance exiting from stall 15. He won at Newbury prior to being outclassed in the Heron Stakes at Sandown. Raadobarg will appreciate any rain and despite a 11lb rise for Haydock can be involved in the shake up also. They would be my two against the field with slight preference for the Roger Varian trained Raadobarg in the hope the rain gets into the ground from a nice draw of 24. 

RAADOBARG 1.5 point each way @ 15/2 Bet365 ¼ 1234

 

Ascot 5.35

A maximum turn out of 19 for the King George V handicap. Top weight Sir Lamorak is a very interesting runner of Aidan O’Brien’s who was touted as a Derby contender earlier in the season. Stepping up in trip will surely suit and can be a major player. There are many other progressive three year olds that will appreciate the longer trip including Siskany of Gidolphin’s. John Gosden is represented by handicap debutants  First Light and Marshall Plan with preference for the former ridden by Frankie Dettori. Roger Varian saddles handicap debutant Nagano who’s a winner on good to soft so won’t mind the conditions. The draw is important here with those drawn out wide up against it from the word go and the selection is First Light who’s nicely berthed in stall 7 and won his maiden on soft ground by 12L so won’t mind if the ground eases. 

FIRST LIGHT 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5^th 123456

 

Ascot 6.10

The 7F Buckingham Palace Handicap was resurrected last season following a 6 year break and is a typically hard handicap to solve. Boardman is a horse I want on my side and he won’t mind the ground softening up a bit although he could of been better drawn than stall 9 but he has to be on my staking plan. Aldaary was given too much to do at Goodwood from Jim Crowley and if the ground was to ease considerably he would have to be a major player here. He’s tongue tied for the first time here and has winning course form. The other horse I like is the Roger Varian trained Lord Campari who is making his handicap debut, is lightly raced and was last seen when running 6th in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. He’s got form on slow ground and ticks all the boxes.  

ALDAARY 1.5 points each way @   6/1 Betfred 1/5^th 123456

LORD CAMPARI 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ 12345

 

[calva decoy]

Some very wise words regarding forecast & ground .

I'll be dubious as to what the clerk of the course says if there is a deluge of rain with it being the showpiece event of the year the fewer non runners the better !