Racing Chat - Tuesday June 15th

[The Brigadier]

Royal Ascot 2021 should be more atmospheric than last year’s renewal with 12,000 in attendance and with dry weather likely the ground for Day one will ride pretty fast.Here’s my thoughts on the first day:- 

Ascot 230 

The week’s banker Palace Pier kicks the 2021 Royal meeting off and he will be incredibly hard to beat. The one nagging doubt that lingers with me is the fact that he has yet to run on very fast ground. No doubt he’ll probably win for Messr’s Gosden and  Dettori as his odds suggest but from a punting angle I’m happy to look elsewhere and take one at an each way price. One horse who will relish the slick ground is the James Tate trained Top Rank. A progressive 5 year old who is only racing in his 10th race today may still be on the upgrade. He was a 7L 3rd in the Lockinge to Palace Pier last time with the likes of Lope Y Fernandez, Pogo and Lord Glitters behind and will appreciate the much faster surface today. PJ McDonald knows him well as his regular pilot and he can hit the frame and is also maybe worth an each way bet in the ‘without the fav’ market. 

TOP RANK 1 point each way @ 16/1 BetVictor 1/5 123

                    1 point each way @ 5/1 Bet365 (without Palace Pier) 1/5 123

 

Ascot 305 

A wide open renewal of the Coventry Stakes with Wesley Ward throwing in the googly by declaring his smart filly Kaufymaker. She looked good on her only run in America over 4 1/2F but the trainer has yet to have a winner at the Royal meeting over 6F and with her cramped odds is overlooked here. Dhabab is the one that takes my eye. He impressed me when winning at Leicester a fortnight ago in the style of a decent animal and his trainer John Gosden won this event with the smart Calyx three years ago. There are many others with chances with honourable mentions going to Ebro River (though he has looked a bit quirky) and Gisburn (though his impressive Newbury win was gained on good to soft ground). 

DHABAB 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 1/5^th odds 1234

 

Ascot 340 

Charlie Hills stable star is one of the fastest horse we’ve seen in a while and although he has a 298 day absence to overcome and has had a few issues he’s taken to win on his seasonal debut just like he did last season. He’s 7 years old now but that doesn’t appear to stop these old sprinters and on official figures is 8lb and upwards ahead of his rivals here, meaning he could even run below par and still take this with his blistering pace. Second favourite is Winter Power who blitzed her field at York in May with the runner up Atalis Bay boosting the form by winning at Sandown over the weekend. American runner Extravagant Kid has the services of Frankie Dettori and is the unknown one in the race but it’s all about Battaash for me and I’m hoping he takes a walk in the market and drifts out to a decent price. 

BATAASH 2 point win @ 9/4 BetVictor

 

Ascot 420 

Charlie Appleby has been in irresistible form this season, winning the Derby with Adayar and can take the Group 1 St James Palace with his Dubawi colt who has been working extremely well at home since his 2nd to the re-opposing Mostadhaf at Sandown in the Heron Stakes. He Was giving John Gosden’s unbeaten colt 3lb that night and also raced on the slower part of the track. Today’s better ground will be much more in his favour and under William Buick should run a big race. The only negative fact is that he is drawn 12 of 13 which is not ideal but no doubt the wily Buick will have a plan. The aforementioned Mostadhaf looks a threat along with Poetic Flare who is running in his fourth Group one contest in 43 days. Ryan Moore has chosen Battleground of the 3 Aidan O’Brien runners but he has to put a shocking effort in our 2000 Guineas behind him. Maximal looks an interesting outsider and is worth a cover bet. 

HIGHLAND AVENUE 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5^th 1234

MAXIMAL ½ point each way @ 25/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Ascot 500 

Willie Mullins has farmed this 2m 4F handicap over the past 10 years winning 4 of them, three with Ryan Moore in the saddle so the first place to look at has to be their runner M C Muldoon who comes here on the back of a hurdling campaign. Previously trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam he has never raced beyond 10F on the level and win or lose looks poor value at around the 4/1 to my eyes. Mullins also saddles Royal Illusion and Rayapour who also holds chances of sorts. My two against the field however are both 100% certain to stay this marathon trip. Last year’ winner Coeur De Lion from the dual purpose stable of Alan King is only 3lb higher this year and Just Hubert who won the 2m 5F Goodwood handicap last Summer for the racing partnership of William Muir and Chris Grassick. Preference would just be for the former although I will be having a saver on Just Hubert. 

COEUR DE LION 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

JUST HUBERT ½ point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 ¼ odds 1234

 

Ascot 535 

The Wolferton Stakes is a listed race run over 10F and has attracted 13 runners in the absence of mudlark Stormy Antarctic. It has an open look about it with Patrick Sarsfield, Solid Stone and Felix among the market leaders. All have some sort of chance but I’ll take a chance each way on the David Menuisier trained Blue Cup who came from way back under a masterful Oisin Murphy ride to win a grade 2 handicap at Epsom earlier in the month. He can be a bit quirky and lost his previous race at York by getting over excited before the race. William Buick takes over from Murphy here and looks decent each way value. 

BLUE CUP 1 point each way @ 15/2 BetVictor 1/5^th odds 1234

 

Ascot 610 

Day one concludes with the 1m 6F Copper  Horse Stakes Handicap which has a short priced favourite in the Willie Mullins trained, Ryan Moore ridden Saldier. A decent hurdler he won well on the level at Listowel earlier in the month and despite a big weight here could be well handicapped. Very fast ground though may not be ideal and he’s also a short enough price so I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet. Global Storm is my idea of the winner and at just around an each way price can take this. A winner over this trip at Newmarket in May he’s been raised 4lb for that and apparently is working very well at Newmarket. Charlie Appleby trains and that man William Buick rides. I acn pass on a tip for the Roger Varian runner Gold Maze and hes worth a small saver bet. . 

GLOBAL STORM 1 ½ points each way @ 9/2 William Hills 1/5 odds 12345

GOLD MAZE 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 1234

 

[calva decoy]

On Sky Sports Racing they said that Wesley Ward was 0/18 with horses over 6f yet has the favourite in the Coventry , may be worth laying it !