Hunter Chases - 3.52 Hexham and 5.20 Kempton

[Darran]

Clearly it wasn't David Maxwell's finest hour at Wincanton and whilst his sit at Aintree was superb this unseat from Shantou Flyer was a shocker. To be fair I wasn't certain he was going to win as Keltus was still in contention jumping the last and we know Maxwell has looked unfit since his return. I'm not really sure why Keltus had drifted out to 16/1 and I hadn't realised he had got so big until the SP's flashed across the screen during the race. In a match with the 3rd I'd have made him slight favourite over the two. Whatever happened it was a fine effort although Shantou Flyer clearly hasn't run up to form.

 

The Stratford race was really frustrating as Fishy Story lost so much ground by either jumping out to her right or a slow jump. She only lost by a length and you have to think a better round of jumping would have seen her win the race. Fair play to the winner though who was given a very good ride in what was basically a carbon copy performance of what he did over course and distance last month. He found himself outpaced and then stayed on with great effect after the last. Leaving the back I thought he was the main danger given what happened the last time and so it proved. Captain Buck's never really travelled that well and I think he's basically run his race because he wasn't beaten far at all.

 

We have two hunter chases this afternoon and we have two more long odds on Paul Nicholls favourites. Bob And Co is in my view the best hunter chaser in the country and if Maxwell stays on he should win by a long margin. I guess after today that is a bigger if than it ought to be, but this really ought to be his first winner back. As much as I am not the sort of punter who will get involved at 1/4 he should be way shorter than that and if he doesn't win by a long way or without coming out of 2nd gear then it will be disappointing.

 

In theory Black River should come 2nd, but this is his first run for over a year and his first up record isn't the best. He pulled up first time out last season and then went onto land a hat-trick although the last of those was in a match. I just wonder if he might need this especially now he is 12 and there could be value in taking him on.

 

Given the trainer of Wonderoftheworld has done terribly with her horses so far I can't have him at all and I am amazed he his 3rd in the betting. He also showed nothing at all at Carlisle on his debut for the yard.

 

Next in the betting we have the two Amie Waugh trained runners and she has chosen to ride Winged Crusader and I think that is interesting. Son Of  Suzie did win 3 weeks ago at Hutton Rudby, but he may have been slightly fortunate given a loose horse bumped into the 1st 3 runners after the last fence and the 3rd was hampered the worse. The time of that race though was 14 seconds slower than the race Winged Crusader was 2nd in on the same card. That wasn't a strong heat, but he is fairly consistent and it wouldn't surprise me if he kept going for minor honours.  

 

Killer Crow finished in front of Wonderoftheworld at Carlisle as he finished 6th have been up there. He didn't run too badly at Musselburgh the time before either and was an OK 3rd in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup last week. I'd have him a bit shorter in the betting than he currently is myself.

 

If you can get on with Skybet they are offering 2/1 Bob And Co winning by 10L or more and that seems a price worth taking to me as if he gets round safely he really ought to cover that margin with ease. I will chance a couple of small forecast plays with Winged Crusader and Killer Crow to finish 2nd.

 

Bob And Co to beat Winged Crusader 0.5pts f/c

Bob And Co to beat Killer Crow 0.5pts f/c

 

At Kempton Adrien Du Pont should win fairly comfortably as well. He beat a useful pointer with ease at Newbury and it's hard to see what beats him. I had thought Envoye Special might be a bit of a bridle horse, but he stormed to a good win at Kimble a couple of weeks ago. He was ridden differently that day as well from his 3 previous runs where as he was prominent rather than being held up. He was 4th at Stratford and Tom Barton was one place behind him in 5th, but he was over 20L behind him distance wise. Tom Barton probably paid for being part of a strong pace early doors as he got very tired. I'd probably have them a bit close together in the betting than they are, but I still think Envoye Special is the most likely to finish 2nd. Given the prices I don't see a betting opportunity in this contest.

[yossa6133]

I'm on 10L + seems like a good price if the jockey stays put!