Hunter Chase - Aintree Foxhunters

[Darran]

The last time I wrote the preview for this contest I did it jetlagged after 3 hours sleep as I arrived back in the country from Australia the morning before the day of the race. I found the winner though and hopefully the fact this has been written on more sleep won't make a difference as to finding the winner. Here is my look at all 23 runners in the contest.

Billaway - Finished 2nd in the last two Cheltenham Foxhunters and he was only denied by a short head this year. He had been hitting a flat spot in his races, but he didn't at Cheltenham and his jumping was much better on the whole as well. I think he could be even better over this trip especially in a fast run race where he has enough pace to sit just behind the leaders. Clearly one of the best hunter chasers around at the moment and has a leading chance.

Bishops Road - You would like to think he would improve for the run at Warwick last week, but he was still 44L behind Caid Du Berlais so he is going to have to find a hell of a lot of improvement to feature here.

Captain Cattistock - The 12L 3rd to Sametegal at Wincanton was a decent effort, but he found nothing for pressure at Doncaster and he looks to me to be a runner to give his jockey a ride in the race because he is hard to fancy otherwise.

Cat Tiger - A classy horse in France and his owner won a Grade 3 on him at Auteuil in November 2018. He then come over here to be trained by Paul Nicholls. and won 3 novice hurdles before being outclassed in the Albert Bartlett last year. This year he has just had the one start when beating Tango De Juilley and Killaro Boy at Leicester and he looked good in doing so. Things haven't gone great for his rider since amateur's returned, but this horse is clearly talented and does look good enough to win. One question mark would be the ground as he was beaten at Worcester on similar ground to what he is likely to face here.

Clondaw Westie - Won a hunter chase at Ffos Las last year on heavy ground and as much as he hasn't really had his optimal conditions this season he isn't going to get them here either. Even he did get his required ground it would be hard to see him being good enough.

Cousin Pascal - Ran really well to finish 2nd to Chameron at Leicester and he then bolted up at Catterick last month. That race was poor though and the 2nd was beaten in a weak Ladies Open at Charing last week. The trainer will no doubt be bullish about his chances, but on form he shouldn't be good enough.

Dashing Perk - He likes to front run, but he could never get to the lead at Wincanton in his hunter chase debut as Caid Du Berlais was given a very aggressive front running ride. He could struggle to make the running here as well as there are a few candidates to be up with the pace, but we do know that being handy is often an advantage in this contest. It does seem strange to me though that Golden Toubouggan who was in front of him at Wincanton is such a bigger price than him. He does seem under priced to me for a horse whose last win was off a handicap mark of 123. What he does have in his favour is the jockey Sam Waley-Cohen who of course has a great record over these fences.

Federici - A hell of a jockey booking and the trainer has won this race before, but he pulled up in the Grand Sefton in December and didn't exactly show a great deal in his two hunter chases at Musselburgh after that. Just impossible to fancy for me despite the jockey booking.

Golden Toubouggan - Ran a hell of a race to be 2nd to Caid Du Berlais at Wincanton last month and he finished in front of Dashing Perk that day. He had some strong pointing form a couple of years ago finishing 2nd to some good horses in the 2019 season. He missed the 2020 season, but reappeared with a win at Maisemore in October. The week after the Wincanton race he went to Stratford for a race he ought to have won easily, but he boiled over big time down at the start and after being taken on for the lead in the race at a strong gallop he had nothing left at the end. He clearly hates Stratford as he had to be withdrawn in the same race 2 years ago when he refused to walk onto the track. Obviously the concern is he will do the same again especially in a big field, but on the Wincanton form there is no logic in him being 5 times the price as Dashing Perk. He probably won't be quite good enough to win, but if he is certainly overpriced as long as he can keep calm at the start.

Greensalt - Passed the post in 3rd in 2018 and placed 2nd after the winner was disqualified. Was 7th in 2019 and not shown enough in two hunter chase runs this year to think he can even repeat that showing let alone his 2018 one.

Kashmir Peak - Finished 3rd behind Risk And Roll at Leicester last year and was 4th in the Fontwell contest Sametegal was 2nd in so hard to see him seriously threatening here.

Killaro Boy - An interesting contender as he looked very good in 2019 when coming to the UK. He was impressive in winning a Warwick hunter chase and then was beaten a nose in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter before finishing 2nd on the mildmay course here. His final start of 2019 came in the Grand Sefton and he was a well beaten 8th. He turned for home in front, but he faded badly after two out. He wasn't seen for 451 days after that and returned at Leicester in the race won by Cat Tiger. He was beaten 22L, but that doesn't tell the full story as he stumbled very badly just as they were leaving the back straight. I suspect he still would have finished 3rd but he would have been closer. I'd imagine this would have been the target for him and although I wonder if he has enough pace to win over this trip I do expect him to come forward from the Leicester run.

Latenightpass - Ran a cracker at Cheltenham and was unlucky not to finish in the first 3 as Staker Wallace over took him in the final strides. He had won over that course and distance in 2019, but he just seemed to be outstayed by the first 3 home in a better contest. He backed up the strong looking Warwick form though and he clearly has plenty of speed. He looks a good jumper and there is every chance this test is going to be ideal for him. I think he has a big chance as long as Cheltenham hasn't left a mark.

Looking Well - Didn't show enough for me at Musselburgh to think he would be up to winning something like this and he would probably want a stiffer test of stamina.

Mighty Stowaway - Finished 6th at Cheltenham where he seemed to find things happening all a bit too fast for him which would be a concern for this drop in trip where they are going to go even quicker. That was his first run since November when he was 3rd behind Stand Up And Fight and Billaway, but again that day he looked more of a stayer. That's twice Billaway has beaten him now and I just don't see how he can reverse form with him let alone win the race.

More Buck's - Won at Maisemore last week, but that was miles away from this and was pulled up in a class 5 handicap at Market Rasen back in December. Should be outclassed.

Ravished - A good winner at Kimble and pushed Hazel Hill close at Ludlow, but he was outclassed at Haydock and Cheltenham and I couldn't have him at all here.

Rewritetherules - Gets a 1st time tongue-tie after finishing a 24L 6th to Billaway at Down Royal in December which might help him based on how he faded on the run-in. Even so it is hard to see after a run of 2nds in points and that 6th how he can win this. He also made no impression at Cheltenham last year.

Risk And Roll - He ran an eye-catching race at Larkhill last year when 4th to Shantou Flyer and then went on to win a couple of hunter chases at Leicester and Stratford. The bare form wouldn't be good enough to win this, but I suspect he is better than the bare results. He has run in a couple of handicaps so far this season finishing a well beaten 3rd at Fakenham before going very close when 2nd at Huntingdon a month ago. That form has been boosted since as 3 horses have already and I don't think he is completely out of this. There is one thing that does really concern me about his chances though and that is his jumping as he has made plenty of mistakes in his last 4 races. That puts me off backing him, but if he does get round safely I can see him running well.

Sametegal - I guess strictly speaking he has the best form in the race given he beat Porlock Bay at Wincanton in February. I do think though that Porlock Bay should have beaten that day as he was ridden negatively to get the trip. The rest of the Wincanton form has not worked out well either. He went to Fontwell after that and clearly didn't stay when losing out to The Galloping Bear. Dropping down to this trip will be in his favour and he finished 3rd in the 2017 Grand Sefton. He also finished 6th in this seasons renewal of that contest. He has run solid races in handicaps without getting his head in front and I just can't help thinking that he got away with winning at Wincanton as he was the 2nd best horse in the race. After training the Cheltenham winner Will Biddick will be looking to ride the Aintree winner here and whilst I can see him going well I struggle to see him winning. I also get the sense the trainer thinks Cat Tiger holds better claims and I agree with him.

Some Man - Could be a case of famous last words here, but he does seem very short in the market for what he's actually done on the track. Granted he was very impressive at Down Royal last month, but there was very little substance to the form. His trainer said that he has been waiting for the better ground that he got that day, but his form doesn't really back that up as he's performed well on testing ground as well. He did travel quite well into the race won by Jury Duty at Thurles before not seeing the trip out, but he has 37L to turn around on Billaway from their Down Royal race in December and don't think he will be up to that. To me he should be at least double the price he actually is.

Tango De Juilley - Returned after nearly 4 years off the track to unseat at the 1st at Kelso, but he was well backed before the race. He then went to Leicester and he could never quite get to Cat Tiger, but on what was basically his first start in 4 years it was a very good effort. Tom Scudamore then gave him an aggressive ride from the front over 2m back at Leicester to qualify for this. He beat Peacocks Secret by 6L and he franked the form by winning at Fakenham. It is worth pointing out that he only ran once in 2016 when 2nd in the 2m5f Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and then he only ran in the same race again in 2017 when pulling up. So since winning at Carlisle 6 years ago he has run 5 times and 3 of those have in the last couple of months. It has been a hell of a training performance to get him this far and although Cat Tiger won cosily enough at Leicester I certainly wouldn't rule him out of reversing the form.

Ucello Conti - Clearly only running to give the owners son a ride in the race and his pointing form suggests he is a long way from the horse he once was.

Verdict - I have a shortlist of 6 which in alphabetical order are Billaway, Cat Tiger, Golden Toubouggan, Killaro Boy, Latenightpass and Tango De Juilley. Sametegal and Risk And Roll just miss that shortlist. As you can tell I rate the Cheltenham and Leicester form highly for this. I think Billaway looks the one they all have to beat and if he travels like he did at Cheltenham I can see him getting into a rhythm just behind the leaders and pouncing after the last. There is every chance Lattnightpass will be one of those he will have to run down and I think he has a superb chance of at least hitting the frame again as he did at Cheltenham. Cat Tiger could well be good enough, but I think the two that finished behind him at Leicester offer better value at the prices. This looks to have been the plan for Tango De Juilley and his trainer has already done wonders with him based on his performances this season. He might be 13, but he's had such little racing that doesn't matter for me and you would imagine that he should improve for his two runs this season as well (can hardly count the Kelso run). Killaro Boy would have been much closer to the two in front of him had he not stumbled badly and given that was his first run for a long time he will improve for it. The other thing is he should improve for the quicker ground as well. I have a slight concern about him over the trip, but he is good enough to get involved although he just misses out as being a bet. I'm not putting Golden Tobouggan up as a bet because you clearly want to make sure he has handled the prelims better than he did at Stratford, but if he does then 50/1 is too big a price and I would cover him to small stakes.

Billaway 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365

Latenightpass 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (5 places)

Tango De Juilley 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 (5 places)

[Darran]

Usually I don't have to worry about Pricewise putting one of mine up, but he's put up Latenightpass which is annoying.

[Darran]

Given he has been tipped up elsewhere and the price isn't going to hold up I am going to add Golden Tobouggan to the bets.

Golden Tobouggan 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365

[yossa6133]

Gone Cat Tiger, should improve a fair bit for the Leicester run and looks classy.

[yossa6133]

I'm not always keen on Maxwell's rides but that was a hell of a sit 4 out (I think)!  In front at the last when my bloody phone rang, fair 3rd though. I didn't even consider the winner being rated 118.

[Darran]

40 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

I'm not always keen on Maxwell's rides but that was a hell of a sit 4 out (I think)!  In front at the last when my bloody phone rang, fair 3rd though. I didn't even consider the winner being rated 118.

It was a great sit but he’s not fit enough yet in my view. Different jockey and I suspect he might have won.

[Darran]

It might not have been as close a finish as the Cheltenham version, but what a thrilling finish we had. Joe O'Shea has done wonders with various horses over the years and the improvement he has got out of Cousin Pascal at least equals what he did with Road To Rome a couple of years back. To go from winning a Restricted in December to landing the Foxhunters' in April is some feat and you have to give a huge amount of credit to the trainer. You also have to give a lot of praise to the James King on top, because as good as the horse was I think his ride won him the race. First of all he got off to a superb start and gained lengths over Latenightpass who wasn't as good away from the tapes. James then stuck to the inside the whole way round whereas Gina had the 2nd out wide. This becomes crucial at the Canal Turn, because Latenightpass goes pretty wide there and gives away more lengths to the winner than he was beaten. Now he probably wasn't helped by Some Man going even wider than him to his outside, but I would imagine if Gina could ride the race again she would use different tactics. James also allowed the winner to just go his own pace and although he wasn't always in the lead he never panicked and he went for the gap up the inside at the elbow to deliver his challenge to perfection. I personally think the best ride won the race rather than the best horse, but that isn't taking anything away from him because even a top 3 finish would have been way above anything he had done before. His trainer has been desperate to win this race and I have no idea how he manages to improve these horses so much, but he is a true pointing man and a superb trainer.

I would imagine he will be back for more next year as will Latenightpass who I have seen connections say that they will possibly skip Cheltenham with him and focus on Aintree. That would be a good move for me as it could be Cheltenham had left a bit of a mark as well. I actually thought thought that Cat Tiger was the best horse in the race. First of all it was a hell of a sit from David at 4 out, but it cost him a few lengths and arguably he then panicked a bit and pushed him forward too soon. He travelled every bit as well as the winner for most of the race though and I still wonder about how fit the jockey is after the long layoff. Also he's just going to be race rusty anyway and all being well he should be more prepared in a years time.. As much as I am not a fan of Maxwell bashing, I do think you have James King on him he wins the race. This will be his target again next year and he will have a massive chance of going two places better.

I'm amazed by Clondaw Westie's performance, because the ground look wrong for him and his form this season didn't look anywhere near good enough to get involved. Fair play to Lawney Hill though for getting him to perform the way he did. Arguably it was an even better effort than the winners.

Billaway wasn't himself at all and I think it was class and jockeyship which saw him finish as close as he did. He found things happening a bit quick for him, but I think at his best he ought to have been capable of being in a better position than he was. He made a terrible error at Foinavon and wasn't much better at the Canal Turn either and was a long way back turning for home. For him to finish 6L behind the winner in 5th was staggering really. Having thought this was the race for him I just wonder if he would need testing ground for it to be and I suspect his effort at Cheltenham hadn't helped either. There is a 3 week gap to Punchestown and to be honest I would skip it with him, but Willie Mullins is a genius so you never know. I suspect though we will only see him at Aintree again if it is soft.

The winning trainer also trained the 6th home Ravished who was out the back for most of the way which isn't his usual style of running, but it was a solid effort. Killaro Boy was 7th but never got involved at all which was the same for the 8th home Tango De Juilley. I must admit I was concerned about his chances after reading and hearing his trainer talk about his chances as she was far from bullish. He gave his jockey a safe ride round though. Sametegal was bang there turning for home but approaching 2 out he started to tire and he faded very badly in the end. Some Man was prominent for a long way and also looked like playing a part in the finish despite going via Liverpool at the Canal Turn, but he faded as well. Golden Tobouggan didn't boil over as he did at Stratford, but after being up there for a long way he pulled up coming to two out. I was right to be worried about Risk And Roll's jumping as his error at the 5th wasn't his first of the race and I would imagine they will stick to normal hunter chases with him now. We never got to see what Dashing Perk could do because he was badly hampered jumping the first and gave Sam no chance of staying on.

This is the 2nd time James King has won this race now and he clearly rides the track very well so you wouldn't be surprised to see him add to that in future years.