Grand National Preview

[The Brigadier]

Disappointingly we don’t have the opportunity to see Tiger Roll re-write the record books by attempting to win three back to back Grand Nationals - a feat never achieved before. His owners, Michael & Eddie O’Leary seem to have a bee in their Gigginstown bonnets about the handicap mark allotted to their superstar but the way he won the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham it does seem a real shame he’s not given the opportunity to at least have a go here.

 

The race is run over 4m 2f 74yds of the unique Aintree course and although the fences have been modified of late it still remains a fine spectacle and a race which puts our great sport in the shop window for a Saturday in April.

 

Interestingly 10 of the past 12 winners were having their first start in the race and 19 of the past 24 winners were aged 8-10. That last stat is quite interesting as prior to Many Clouds victory in 2015 there had been only three winning eight year olds in the previous 40 years but in the last five years there’s been three. Maybe the increased prize money and slightly easier fences have attracted a better class, younger type to the race.  Just two favourites has won in the last ten years (Tiger Roll @ 4/1 in 2019 and Don’t Push It @ 10/1 joint in 2010)

 

40 go to post and here’s my horse by horse guide. The ground with further watering overnight is likely to be good to soft.

 

BRISTOL DE MAI (Nigel Twiston Davies 10 years old)

Classy chaser who’s seem unbeatable at Haydock which is a track not un similar to Aintree. Has to shoulder top weight here and would like plenty of juice in the ground. Jockey Daryl Jacob has been talking him up recently but for me he has a big task under a big weight. Yet to race behind 3m 2f.

 

CHRIS’S DREAM (Henry De Bromhead 9 years old)

Stamina big issue with him. Ran well in last years Gold Cup but appeared to run out of petrol close home. Pulled up in Ryanair over 2m 5f at Cheltenham on latest run.

 

YALA ENKI (Paul Nicholls 11 years old)

Stays well and likes to be ridden prominently so likely to give regular rider Bryony Frost a good spin round here. Has made the occasional bad blunder and getting old now at 11.

 

BALLYOPTIC (Nigel Twiston-Davies 11 years old)

Not shone in four outings this season, including over hurdles when last seen at Haydock. Outsider who’s hard to fancy.

 

DEFINITLY RED (Brian Ellison 12 years old)

Age catching up with him. Pulled up in 2017 renewal when only 10/1 but not as good now and was way behind favourite Cloth Cap at Kelso last time.

 

LAKE VIEW LAD (Nick Alexander 11 years old)

In the same ownership as favourite Cloth Cap. Shock winner of Many Clouds Chase here on the Mildmay course in December last. Not shown anything since (last time behind Cloth Cap). 14/1 when pulled up in 2019 National won by Tiger Roll.

 

BURROWS SAINT (Willie Mullins 8 years old)

2019 Irish National winner as a novice. Good 2nd in Bobbyjo Chase last time and has been trained for this race. All the recent stats point to him and he looks sure to run a big race though has been well found in the market at single figure odds.

 

MAGIC OF LIGHT (Mrs J Harrington 10 years old)

Was runner up to Tiger Roll at 66/1 back in 2019. Has mixed hurdling and fencing this season though was a bit under par in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham last time. Previous experience invaluable in this race and can run well each way at a big price.

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS (Willie Mullins 11 years old)

Stamina looks his forte with a 3rd in the 2019 Irish National to Burrows Saint on his CV. 7lb better off now for 7 1/4L. Turned the table on stable companion Burrows Saint last time out when beating him 4 3/4L in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse and 7lb better off. On the form book should be bang there with Burrows Saint but is 4 times the price. Looks good ew value.

 

TALKISCHEAP (Alan King 9 years old)

Winner of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April 2019. Not shown the same form since and easy to put a line through here.

 

TOUT EST PERMIS (Noel Meade 8 years old)

Yet to race beyond 3 miles and looks totally exposed having raced 21 times over fences. Held by the Mullins pair in the Bobbyjo and very hard to make a case for him.

 

ANIBALE FLY (Tony Martin 11 years old)

Ran well when 5th (beaten 16 1/2L) in 2019 National behind Tiger Roll. Shown very little since including when behind Acapella Bourgeois and Burrows Saint in Bobbyjo Chase (first run mind for a year). Races here off of a 16lb lower mark than his 5th two years ago and presumably been trained with this race in mind. There’s worse 33/1 chances than him in race.

 

MISTER MALARKEY (Colin Tizzard 8 years old)

Ascot winner in December and good 3rd at Kempton last time out. Has yet to race beyond 3 miles and has stamina to prove here.

 

KIMBERLITE CANDY (Tom Lacey 9 years old)

An out and out stayer who won the Warwick Classic in January 2020 by 10L. Has been runner up in the last two renewals of the Becher Chase over these fences, was extremely easy to back on latest run suggesting he badly needed his first run for 329 days and is a player here although all his best efforts have been gained on very deep ground so the softer the better for him.

 

ANY SECOND NOW (Ted Walsh 9 years old)

Trainer has won race before with the gambled on Papillon in 2000. Has been very well backed ante-post and comes here on the back of a 10L victory of a Grade 2 contest at Navan over 2 miles. Stamina is an issue mind and at the current price is no value what so ever.

 

OK CORRAL (Nicky Henderson 11 years old)

Has been trained for this race but ran no sort of race in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham when a 33/1 chance and pulled up. Went off 4/1 favourite for the then 4 miler at Cheltenham back in March 2019 when suffering interference and pulling up. Stamina not a gimme here and hard to fancy much.

 

TAKINGRISKS (Nicky Richards 12 years old)

Stays well (won Scottish National back in 2019 over 4 miles) and prefers drying ground. Bounced back to form when a 40/1 winner of the Skybet Chase at Doncaster in January and raised only 4lb. Not without a top 6 chance though at 12 hard to see him winning.

 

SHATTERED LOVE (Mrs Denise Foster 10 years old)

Has yet to prove her stamina for a test like this (pulled up in Burrow Saints Irish National win). Comes here in decent enough form with placings behind smart mares Elimay and Colreevy over 2m and 2m4f this year. Her best form has come on very soft ground and conditions unlikely to suit this year.

 

JETT (Mrs Jessie Harrington 10 years old)

Well beaten in Becher Chase back in December and shown little since including over hurdles on latest - easy to put a line through him.

 

LORD DU MESNIL (Richard Hobson 8 years old)

Stays well and comes here on the back of a hard fought win of the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February. Loves the mud however and any softening of the ground would bring him into the equation but as it stands at present may be run off of his hooves on this better terrain. Officially 5lb well in here.

 

POTTERS CORNER (Christian Williams 11 years old)

2019 Welsh National winner and only rated 4lb higher now. Has been trained for this and been given a couple of outings over hurdles this year to get him spot on for this. Could possibly do with some easing in the ground but cannot be ruled out and has definite ew claims.

 

CLASS CONTI (Willie Mullins 9 years old)

Placed in the Thyestes Handicap Chase and Leinster National on last two outings. Still has stamina to prove mind and has yet to race beyond 3m1f. Mullins has better chances than this one in the race. In same ownership as top weight Bristol De Mai.

 

MILAN NATIVE (Mrs Denis Foster 8 years old)

Kim Muir winner at Cheltenham in 2020 but could only finish 9th when well

backed in recent renewal. Pulled up in only attempt at a marathon trip and has stamina as well as ability to answer to.

 

DISCORAMA (Paul Nolan 8 years old)

Has some decent back form as a novice including when runner up in the then 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival to Le Breuil in 2019. Not seen since flopping at Cheltenham in 3m3f handicap last November but trained for race and it would not be a shock if he runs well as he is an out and out stayer.

 

VIEUX LION ROUGE (David Pipe 12 years old)

Loves these unique fences and his course form reads 7167920951 including a 24L win in the latest renewal of the Becher Chase from Kimberlite Candy looked as good as ever at 11. Flopped since in Welsh National and though he should run well it’s hard to believe he’s well handicapped enough at 12 to win this. He’s finished 7th, 6th, 9th and 15th in his four previous attempts in this race.

 

CLOTH CAP (Jonjo O’Neill 9 years old)

Has everything in his favour. Impressive when winning the Ladbrokes Trophy by 10L in November where he made all and jumped well. Given a 98 day break he was next seen up at Kelso when taking a listed chase over 3m by 7 1/2L from Aso. He was wrong at the weights with his rivals that day and with no penalties incurred after the weights are released is officially 14lb well in here. He stays well as he proved when 3rd in the Scottish National in 2019 and prefers good ground. He ticks all the boxes and whatever way you play this famous race I urge you to have him as part of your staking plan.

 

CABARET QUEEN (Willie Mullins 9 year old)

Yet to run at marathon trips and comes here on the back of two uninspiring efforts in the Thyestes Chase and Mares Chase at Cheltenham. Easy to scrub out.

 

MINELLACELEBRATION (Katy Price 11 years old)

Has run in the last two renewals of the Becher Chase - well beaten 10th and unseating at the 7th at big prices. Stamina to prove and hard to give any chance to.

 

CANELO (Alan King 8 years old)

Been running well all season. Was third in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster last time over 3m 2f - that’s the furthest he’s ever raced over and has his stamina to prove.

 

THE LONG MILE (J P Dempsey 7 years old)

One of the youngest in the field and wasn’t disgraced when third beaten 7 3/4L in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time. Only 3L behind Burrows Saint that day at level weights and 9lb better off here. Has only run on very soft ground ground but if handling this better surface could be a lively outsider for leading owner JP McManus who is likely to have 7 runners here in the green and gold colours.

 

GIVE ME A COPPER (Paul Nicholls 11 years old)

Lightly raced for his age and part owned by Alex Ferguson. Good ground suits and has a 4th in the 3m 5f Bet365 Chase in his profile so chances are he’ll stay ok. Whether he’s good enough to worry some of these I doubt though.

 

FARCLAS (Mrs Denise Foster 7 years old)

Excellent effort at Cheltenham when chasing home the progressive The Shunter but that was over 2m 4 1/2f and stamina looks a major issue with him here. The furthest he’s run at was when 3rd in the Paddy Power Chase over 3m last Christmas.

 

MINELLA TIMES (Henry De Bromhead 8 years old)

Subject of an ante post gamble. Likely to be ridden by Rachael Blackmore. Consistent sort who’s been runner up in two valuable handicap chases in Ireland this season rising 9lb. Yet to race beyond 3 miles mind and although with the right connections isn’t certain to need a marathon trip.

 

SUB LIEUTENANT (Georgie Howell 12 years old)

2nd over these fences in the 2019 Topham. Now trained by Georgie Howell who has yet to train a winner. Likely to be ridden by Tabitha Worsley. Hard to fancy at all.

 

HOGANS HEIGHTS (Jamie Snowden 10 years old)

Easy winner of the Grand Sefton (beat Wishfull Dreaming 16L) in December 2019. Shown absolutely nothing since in two handicap hurdles and a cross country race. On recent form he’s a no hoper.

 

DOUBLE SHUFFLE (Tom George 11 years old)

33/1 when pulled up in the 2017 Grand National. Won at Kempton in January over 3 miles. Yet another one who has to prove he needs a thorough test.

 

AMI DESBOIS (Graeme McPherson 11 years old)

Has run well in second place in two handicap over 3 miles this year. Last won in December 2017 and it will be a major surprise were he to oblige here.

 

BLAKLION (Dan Skelton 12 years old)

Fourth in 2017 and brought down at the first in 2018. Not shown a great deal since and a top ten finish would be a result for his enthusiastic owners.

 

 

 

Summary:-

 

The one to beat is without doubt Jonjo O’Neill’s Cloth Cap who has everything in his favour (unless the weather forecast is wrong and it turned soft) officially a stone well in, a sound jumper and stays well. Tom Scudamore has a poor record in this race but his family is steeped in the tradition of the race (his Grand Father won it on Oxo back in 1959) and I have no reservations about the man on top who has been riding at the top of his game all season. Current quotes of 4/1 may seem stingy and I’m hoping as we get closer to the big day his price may lengthen as he will certainly be my main bet.

 

Willie Mullins looks likely to have four runners with his Irish National winner Burrows Saint the shortest in the betting. If you fancy him though then you surely must give Acapela Bourgeois a good chance also. His form ties in nicely with his stable mate and at four times the price is worth backing each way. Although the younger horses have come to the fore in recent years 11 year old’s won this in 2012,2013 & 2014 so I’m not put off by his age.

 

Were the ground to turn soft then the likes of Kimberlite Candy and Secret Reprieve would come into the reckoning but for the time being I’ll stick with just the two selections in the hope that Cloth Cap will drift later in the week and I’ll take the 33/1 Acapella Bourgeois which looks good ew value to me.

 

CLOTH CAP 3 points win @ best price on day

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 1 point each way @ 33/1 1/4 odds 12345 Bet365