Hunter Chase - 3.30 Ludlow

[Darran]

Caid Du Berlais had a very easy task at Warwick and that should put him spot on for Punchestown in a months time as he bids for the hat-trick. He is in at Aintree next week, but I would be surprised if he went there now. It didn't go so smoothly his stablemate Monsieur Gibraltar at Fakenham though a few minutes later. I don't really know what to make of his effort, but it was miles below the form he was showing in 2019. He ran like he needed it or that the wind op he had hasn't worked. He should have stayed 3m round Fakenham and I don't really buy into the possible theory that he doesn't handle the track. Hopefully he will see the real Monsieur Gibraltar next time out as he is a class horse on his day. Peacock Suit was a massive move in the market from 100/30 into 13/8 although my feeling is this was a false move based on the Asian markets rather than people really thinking he was going to win because 13/8 was a crazy price really. He always travelled better than the favourite though and was an easy winner although he didn't need to better his Leicester run in the end. The 2nd is interesting because I was adamant that Gina Andrews had looked after Right To Reply at Bangor back in 2018 as he finished 4th in testing ground on his first run back after a wind op. He was then ridden by his then owner on his next start and he wasn't the best in the saddle and after that he pulled up at Stratford. This was his first run since and he was given a sensible ride and was able to pick up 2nd place as the favourite faltered. If he can build on this he should be able to pick up a race.

Onto Ludlow later today and the race basically centres around San Benedeto. If he runs up to his current mark of 138 then he wins this. The problem is he hasn't really run a good race for a while now and is clearly on the downgrade. Now those races are stronger than this contest so into calmer waters we might see him bounce back to winning ways, but for me he's about the right price at 5/4. 

Chef D'Equipe made a winning hunter chase debut at Wincanton last February, but the race basically took little winning as the 2nd hasn't done much for the form back in handicaps since. It was a comfortable enough success in the end though after he had set a pretty fast pace after taking a keen hold. His last 3 races he has led and with Bletchley Castle also in the race we could see the pair of them take each other on. He also had a very in and out profile last season and my feeling is he is worth taking on.

We then come to two horses who ran here over 3m at the start of the month with Master Dancer finishing a length in front of Dieu Vivant. Dieu Vivant just looks a horse who is always going to frustrate unless things fall in his lap as they did when he won a hunter chase last February. He was held up in last place made headway leaving the back, but he never really looked like he was going to play a serious part. It surprises me that he is a shorter price than Master Dancer given he finished behind him and I thought he ran the more promising race. It was his first start for a year when he won a point at Badbury Rings so he is entitled to come on for the run. He travelled really nicely into the race as well and looked certain to play a part jumping 4 out only for his lack of fitness/stamina told late on. He ought to be better over this trip and I can see the likely fast pace suiting him and giving him something to aim at.

The next two in the betting both ran over course and distance last week. I've already mentioned that Bletchley Castle doesn't look like he will get an easy led which will not help him and although Zamparelli ran well enough I do think this looks a stronger contest.

The fear when you fancy one e/w and there are 8 runners is that we see a non-runner, but hopefully all 8 go to post because I like the chances of Master Dancer to at least get in the 1st 3. The favourite could easily be too classy for them, but there are reasons to think he could be beatable here, especially at the current price. I would have Master Dancer about half the price he is at the time of writing and certainly shorter than Dieu Vivant in the market. There was plenty to like about his run last time and this test looks perfect for him based on that effort.

Master Dancer 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

Well I was right to take on the original front two in the betting, but frustratingly Master Dancer ran way below his performance from last week. He ended up going off 2nd fav and was the price I thought he should have been. Johnathon Neesom also put him up on RTV, but the horse suffered under the weight of our tips. 

As it turned out Bletchley Castle did get an easy lead because Chef D'Equipe ran terribly in what has been a bad couple of days for Mr Maxwell. He has finished a good 2nd again, but Zamparelli managed to reverse the form from last week. He was a long way behind the 2nd in the early stages, but came through powerfully in the home straight for a good win. He had been well backed at big prices and the owner said she was confident and had £100 e/w on the horse. Dieu Vivant was handily that he has been the last twice, but it made no difference and again he never really looked like winning. Initially I thought San Benedeto was very disappointing as he didn't really travel with any zest and he did well to finish as close as he did. What I had missed on first viewing though was that he had been bumped into quite badly jumping the 2nd fence and that could well be the reason why he didn't want to know after that. I wouldn't want to take a short price about him unless it was a weak contest, but it could be worth giving him the benefit of the doubt because of what happened at the 2nd. 

Finally in the end we didn't get the dead eight as Billy Hicks was withdrawn at the start. You could hear the worry in Nessom's voice as he just knew we were going to get a 7 runner race and of course the e/w bet he had was not going to look as good. In the end it didn't matter, but what is frustrating was it looked like the horse had been deemed a runner because the jockey was still on when the tape went back and there was no obvious way of knowing that he had been withdrawn. The horse should have been led away before the race started so it was clear.

The next race is on Tuesday at Exeter and then it will be Aintree on Thursday.

[Darran]

Updated totals for the season after 31 races stand at 29.33pts profit from 67.5pts stakes

[Ratty]

I'm struggling to see where you come up with these figures Darran. Your figures are usually spot on Darran but I'm nowhere near your figures this time.

I've backed every one of the recommendations that ran in a hunter chase and have 28 races and 71.5 pts stakes and a loss 0f 7.50 units. These incluse two anti post recommendations.

I know you give out horses that have been hunter chasing that are now running in handicaps but the odd few have at times gone out with no stakes against them, just a price on occassions.

Have you included these in the profit and loss? If so then your total stakes are well out from what you've posted.

Below are all your recommendations that have run in a hunter chase this season. I have three less races and 4 more points stakes and 36 points difference in the final totals (the final figure in each line is the cumulative profit or loss).

 

21/1    3.40 Ludlow    Miss Seagreen 1pt e/w @ 9/1 generally (1/5x3)            3rd        +0.80        +0.80
21/1    3.40 Ludlow    Ange Des Malberaux 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 (1/5x3)        L    -1            -0.20
31/1    4.15 Naas    Aloneamongmillions 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 (1/5x3)        L    -2            -2.20

3/2    4.10 Warwick    Highway Jewel 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365                2nd    -2            -4.20
3/2    4.10 Warwick    Vinnie Lewis 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor (1/5x3)        L    -1            -5.20
3/2    4.10 Warwick    Ange Des Malberaux 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with B365 (1/5x3)        L    -0.5            -5.70
4/2    3.20 Wincanton    Porlock Bay 1.5pts @ 5/2 with Bet365                2nd    -1.5            -7.20
4/2    3.20 Wincanton    Captin McGinley 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betfair (1/5x4)        4th        +0.70        -6.50
6/2    4.19 Musselburgh    Alcala 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill                2nd    -2            -8.50
16/2    3.15 Catterick    Duhallow Tornado 1pt e/w @ 4/1 with Betfair (1/5x4)        2nd    -0.60            -9.10
18/2    3.15 & 3.47 Leic    Chameron and Premier Magic 2pts double @ 2.15/1 with Betfair    W        +2.30        -6.80
19/2    4.15 Fakenham    Dubai Quest 2pts @ 13/8 with Betfair                W        +3.25        -3.55
19/2    4.22 Kelso    Kalabaloo 2pts @ 11/8 with Bet365                L    -2            -5.55
19/2    4.22 Kelso    Senor Lombardy 0.75pts e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365 (1/5x3)        2nd        +0.90        -4.65
20/2    5.00 Haydock    Bob And Co 3pts @ 11/8 generally                W        +4.12        -0.53
23/2    4.30 Wetherby    Road To Rome 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365                L    -2            -2.53
24/2    4.35 Doncaster    Silsol 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365                    W        +4.50        +1.97
24/2    4.35 Doncaster    Different Gravey 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365            L    -2            -0.03
28/2    4.40 Fontwell    Sonneofpresenting betting w/o fav 0.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365    2nd        +0.20        +0.17

2/3    4.10 Leicester    Fumet 'Oudairies 2pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor            W        +3.75        +3.92
2/3    4.10 Leicester    Captain McGinley 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365            L    -0.5            +3.42
2/3    4.40 Leicester    Dr Des 0.5pts e/w w/o the front two market @ 11/2 with Bet365    4th        +0.18        +3.60
3/3    3.35 & 4:35 Muss    Alcala/Captain Buck's 2pts double @ 6/4 with BetVictor        W        +3.00        +6.60
3/3    4:35 Musselburgh    Abasinte 0.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with Bet365 (1/5x3)            L    -1            +5.60
3/3    4:35 Musselburgh    Captain Buck's to beat Absainte f/c 0.5pts            L    -0.5            +5.10
3/3    3.45 Wincanton    Caid Du Berlais 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365                W        +1.25        +6.35
4/3    3.50 Ludlow    Miss Seagreen 1.5pts @ 3/1 generally                L    -1.5            +4.85
4/3    3.50 Ludlow    Garde Ville 0.75pts e/w @ 28/1 BFSB (1/5x3)    R4        2nd        +1.35        +6.20
4/3    3.50 Ludlow    Time For Rio 0.5pts e/w @ 15/2 Bet365 (1/5x3)    R4        W        +1.80        +8.00
10/3    4.50 Catterick    Rattle The Cage 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Bet365 (1/5x3)            L    -2            +6.00
10/3    4.50 Catterick    Eco Warrior 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Betfair SB (1/5x3)        L    -2            +4.00
15/3    3.03 Stratford    Golden Toubouggan 4pts @ 11/8 with Betfair            2nd    -4            0.00
15/3    3.03 Stratford    Envoye Special 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365                L    -1            -1.00
19/3    Chelt Anti Post    Highway Jewel 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 with Betfair (1/5x3)        NR    -1            -2.00
19/3    Chelt Anti Post    Bob and Co 1pt e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 (1/5x3)            L    -2            -4.00
19/3    3.40 Cheltenham    Latenightpass 1pt e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (1/5x4)            4th        +4.00        0.00
19/3    3.40 Cheltenham    Stand Up And Fight 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (1/5x4)        L    -1            -1.00
19/3    3.40 Cheltenham    Salvatore 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365 (1/5x4)        L    -0.5            -1.50
19/3    4.40 Fakenham    Ennistown 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365                W        +4.00        +2.50
21/3    5.00 Carlisle    The Galloping Bear to beat Duhallow Tornado 1pt f/c        L    -1            +1.50
25/3    4.15 Ludlow    Copain De Classe 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfair            L    -2            -0.50
25/3    4.15 Ludlow    Jenkins 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (1/5x3)            L    -2            -2.50
28/3    4.30 Ascot    Alcala to beat Magna Sam 0.5pts f/c                L    -0.5            -3.00
28/3    4.30 Ascot    Alcala to beat Teeton Surprise 0.5pts f/c            L    -0.5            -3.50
30/3    5.00 Fakenham    Monsieur Gibraltar to beat Peacocks Secret 2pts f/c        L    -2            -5.50
31/3    3.30 Ludlow    Master Dancer 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365            L    -2            -7.50

[Darran]

I have gone back through things today and I have made a mistake with my figures and I worked out with what I was doing. Basically I changed the way I was recording it this season to try and make things easier and yet I have made it harder by making a mistake. I should have just stuck to pen and paper as I never made a mistake then! The 31 comes from the fact we have had 31 hunter chases although not all races have had bets. This is just based on UK hunter chases so I didn't include the Irish runner. As I have been posting them up in the morning I have included BOG where the SP has been bigger and obviously taken off the R4's. Therefore the right total I have is 3.33pts in profit. Obviously people will have different totals and it is only marginal profit at the moment after another tough spell. Still we have more than half the season to go so hopefully the figure will go upwards. I honestly wasn't trying to mislead anyone and I'm gutted that I made the mistake in the first place.

[Ratty]

Thanks Darran for your reply. I thought something must be up becasue it's not like you to be off on your numbers. Your one of the good guys out there that post their record. Having been with you when you were offering your recommendations privately I know you to be an honest person.

[Hendredenny]

Whatever the process for profit/loss, it's an entertaining and helpful thread which I enjoy following..