Racing Chat Tuesday 23 rd March

[alancraik]

Todays top rated selections


HUNTINGDON 14:35 Haafapiece 16/5 win

TAUNTON 15:47 John Constable 10/1 e/w 3 Places

TAUNTON 16:15 Monkey Puzzle 13/2 e/w 3 Places

All C bets

Finally worked out the trial from June 2020 to Feb 2021,
Flat Strike rate of 38% (Win + Places) ROI of 31% (worried that flat profit may be to horses trying to win after the lock down?)
AW Strike rate of 31% (Win + Places) ROI of 8.9%
NH Strike rate of 35% (Win = Places) ROI of - 4.4% (not sure how I made a loss mis calcs ?)

From now on will be using a rated rfsp for Flat, AW and NH hope this makes a difference ?.

[The Equaliser]

Doing things a bit different from today.  Will be posting up as I go along throughout the day.  Also, taking account of what I believe to be "live Contenders"; quite simply these are horses in a race that are below 10/1 in the main prices offered by our revered bookies.  As a rule of thumb if there are say 2 live contenders then I need odds of 3/1 to place a bet. 3 live contenders, I need 4/1 and so on.  I have listed out prices from the night before and do a quick check during the day to see what has changed.  I then will look at what appears to be a market mover around the possible selections and make a choice for a value bet.  I will also highlight strong market movers for favourite backers though I won't necessarily be backing them.  Hopefully this info should be of some use to forum members.

12.30 Hunt 4 main contenders so 5/1 min required. The top 2 in the market look fairly steady.  Old Friend and Oasis Prince have shown signs of ability with some sort of doubts about stamina for Oasis Prince.  Timeform prefer Old Friend.  One can get 9/2 and best price 5/1 about Old Friend but I'm not playing

1.00 Hunt 5 main contenders so 6/1 price required.  The money has come for Ladronne, It was shown as 3/1 last night and is now around 2/1.  no bet for me.  It may be possible to get 6/1 for Kaphamor.  The horse has been disappointing over hurdles and one has to take it on trust that it will shine now chasing.  Not strong enough for a wacking £2 bet from me.   First Assembly and Seaside Girl are big price drifters so I won't be throwing money away on them.

Back later

Edited March 23, 2021 by The Equaliser
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