Hunter Chase - 4.50 Catterick

[Darran]

My initial thoughts before having a good look at this race was that I was pretty confident that Cousin Pascal was going to take all the beating. The 2nd to Chameron at Leicester 3 weeks ago is head and shoulders above what anything else has achieved in this race and if he repeats that then chances are he wins. The problem though is that the Leicester run was way above anything he had done before. The handicapper put him up 18lbs for it which sums things up. The time of the race was 17 seconds quicker than the other division which is obviously a good thing. Chameron's rider did say after the race though that he hated the ground so he has probably under performed and the 3rd home isn't a strong stayer. On his previous start he was only 3rd at Alnwick and had Mr Pepperpot 10L in front of him and he carried 3lbs less. I think ultimately he's price is no value because all you have to go on is one piece of form which has suddenly appeared almost from nowhere. It looks like it is going to be wet today so I suspect the ground will head towards his liking, but his stamina isn't fully confirmed as there are mixed messages in his form and the Leicester race was 2m6f.

King Of The Clothe comes from the Wincanton contest which is working out pretty horribly so far. He was 5th beaten 40L by Sametegal, but he needed his first run of last season when he was 5th behind Shantou Flyer at Larkhill so there is reason to think he will improve for the run. The head 2nd to Duhallow Tornado a couple of runs later was a good effort. All his runs had been on now worse than good to soft prior to the Wincanton run so there would still be a doubt about him if there was a lot of rain. His trainer and jockey could hardly be in better form thought right now.

No Limitations was 2nd to Premier Magic in the other division of the Leicester race that Cousin Pascal was 2nd in. As I mention above the difference in times between the two races was huge and that would be a concern. I'm not sure he wants this sort of stamina test either, but he does have place claims.

Rattle The Cage had been off the course for nearly 2 years before his course and distance 4th last month. He was bang in contention at the 2nd last and just got a bit tired which wasn't a surprise. He was beaten less than 6L though and was only just caught for 3rd place. Duhallow Tornado was 2nd and he's won since which is a plus for the form and although I was initially concerned by the fact the finishers were fairly close to each other I do think we can upgrade his run given the long layoff. We know he stays and we know he wont care what the ground is come race time. Granted he doesn't win often, but he certainly has place claims at the very least based on his run last time.

Eco Warrior is the other one in single figures (at the time of writing) and he has a decent win record in points. He did pull up at Alnwick on his seasonal debut, but he might have needed that and it was his first poor run since 2017. Obviously the concern is he's 11 and he could be going backwards, but I have the image of his run at Musselburgh a year ago where he flew home to finish 3rd and get less than 3L behind Virak. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he did something similar here and the jockey change is a plus for me as well.

The only other one worth a mention is Mr Pepperpot purely because on Alnwick form he does have the beating of the favourite here. He didn't run too badly at Wetherby, but he faded badly there and it's never happened for him in 3 hunter chases to date.

So for me we have a 16 runner field but only 5 that I can really see have a chance of winning. If he repeats the Leicester run then I find it hard to see Cousin Pascal getting beat, but for me he's no value given that run stands out like a sore thumb in his form and his stamina isn't guaranteed. King Of The Clothe might not want the rain to come and the form of that Wincanton race does concern me. He certainly wouldn't be a surprise winner, but again his price seems tight enough. Instead I am going to take a couple who we know will stay and wont mind what the weather does. Rattle The Cage ran a huge race over course and distance last time and this looks weaker than that. If he can build on his first run for 2 years then he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. That image of Eco Warrior flying home at Musselburgh wont leave my head and this will be even more of a stamina test as well as a positive jockey change. I will take those 2 e/w and hope we can get the favourite beat.

Rattle The Cage 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with most bookies

Eco Warrior 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

[Wanderlust]

6 minutes ago, Darran said:

My initial thoughts before having a good look at this race was that I was pretty confident that Cousin Pascal was going to take all the beating. The 2nd to Chameron at Leicester 3 weeks ago is head and shoulders above what anything else has achieved in this race and if he repeats that then chances are he wins. The problem though is that the Leicester run was way above anything he had done before. The handicapper put him up 18lbs for it which sums things up. The time of the race was 17 seconds quicker than the other division which is obviously a good thing. Chameron's rider did say after the race though that he hated the ground so he has probably under performed and the 3rd home isn't a strong stayer. On his previous start he was only 3rd at Alnwick and had Mr Pepperpot 10L in front of him and he carried 3lbs less. I think ultimately he's price is no value because all you have to go on is one piece of form which has suddenly appeared almost from nowhere. It looks like it is going to be wet today so I suspect the ground will head towards his liking, but his stamina isn't fully confirmed as there are mixed messages in his form and the Leicester race was 2m6f.

King Of The Clothe comes from the Wincanton contest which is working out pretty horribly so far. He was 5th beaten 40L by Sametegal, but he needed his first run of last season when he was 5th behind Shantou Flyer at Larkhill so there is reason to think he will improve for the run. The head 2nd to Duhallow Tornado a couple of runs later was a good effort. All his runs had been on now worse than good to soft prior to the Wincanton run so there would still be a doubt about him if there was a lot of rain. His trainer and jockey could hardly be in better form thought right now.

No Limitations was 2nd to Premier Magic in the other division of the Leicester race that Cousin Pascal was 2nd in. As I mention above the difference in times between the two races was huge and that would be a concern. I'm not sure he wants this sort of stamina test either, but he does have place claims.

Rattle The Cage had been off the course for nearly 2 years before his course and distance 4th last month. He was bang in contention at the 2nd last and just got a bit tired which wasn't a surprise. He was beaten less than 6L though and was only just caught for 3rd place. Duhallow Tornado was 2nd and he's won since which is a plus for the form and although I was initially concerned by the fact the finishers were fairly close to each other I do think we can upgrade his run given the long layoff. We know he stays and we know he wont care what the ground is come race time. Granted he doesn't win often, but he certainly has place claims at the very least based on his run last time.

Eco Warrior is the other one in single figures (at the time of writing) and he has a decent win record in points. He did pull up at Alnwick on his seasonal debut, but he might have needed that and it was his first poor run since 2017. Obviously the concern is he's 11 and he could be going backwards, but I have the image of his run at Musselburgh a year ago where he flew home to finish 3rd and get less than 3L behind Virak. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he did something similar here and the jockey change is a plus for me as well.

The only other one worth a mention is Mr Pepperpot purely because on Alnwick form he does have the beating of the favourite here. He didn't run too badly at Wetherby, but he faded badly there and it's never happened for him in 3 hunter chases to date.

So for me we have a 16 runner field but only 5 that I can really see have a chance of winning. If he repeats the Leicester run then I find it hard to see Cousin Pascal getting beat, but for me he's no value given that run stands out like a sore thumb in his form and his stamina isn't guaranteed. King Of The Clothe might not want the rain to come and the form of that Wincanton race does concern me. He certainly wouldn't be a surprise winner, but again his price seems tight enough. Instead I am going to take a couple who we know will stay and wont mind what the weather does. Rattle The Cage ran a huge race over course and distance last time and this looks weaker than that. If he can build on his first run for 2 years then he has a great chance of being in the first 3 at the very least. That image of Eco Warrior flying home at Musselburgh wont leave my head and this will be even more of a stamina test as well as a positive jockey change. I will take those 2 e/w and hope we can get the favourite beat.

Rattle The Cage 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with most bookies

Eco Warrior 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

Nice Assessment

[paceman]

First thoughts are normally the best,I,did the same as you! No bet for me though. I was praising myself before the end of the first circuit,but,not afterwards

[Darran]

Yeah I made a mistake and I'm annoyed with myself. I overthought the race whereas I should have just kept it simple. I also found out a few minutes before the race that the reason he disappointed at Alnwick was because he travelled poorly and that connections were very confident yesterday. That obviously gave a new slant on his chances.

[paceman]

You wont get it right all the time! Just most!