Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment

[harry_rag]

Bit of a "scrap pad" thread to test a theory.

I think we all know what a goal is (!?!) and I'll take it as read we're familiar with the concept of an assist. Not every goal has an assist credited to it (own goals, penalties, rebounds etc.).

A simple and not wholly unreasonable premise is that betting on players to get an assist is a mug's game. This will be largely true as a lot of the punters will be ill informed and the odds will be rank bad value for the majority of bets. There may be exceptions where some consistent and prolific players (Son, De Bruyne) are on offer at value prices.

The flip side of that assumption is that betting on players NOT to get an assist could be a profitable endeavour. Few, if any, fixed odds firms offer the option but we can sell a player's assist minutes on the spreads. As per goal minutes, if you sold a player's assist minutes at 20 and he didn't register an assist you'd win 20 x your stake. If he assisted a goal after 50 minutes you'd lose 30 x stake and if he added a second in the last minute you'd lose 120 x stake.

I'm going to track how you'd do selling a sample of 100 players at prices >10. My estimate is that this will show a profit. I'll guess at a 400 point return to 1 point stakes. I'll track when time allows till I get to 100. First selections to follow shortly.

[harry_rag]

Opening batch of sells, early prices but void if not starting.

Rodriguez (Everton) at 18

Ziyech (Chelsea) at 12

Sanchez (Inter) at 23

Eriksen (Inter) at 18

Hakimi (Inter) at 15

Barella (Inter) at 14

Young (Inter) at 13

Brozovic (Inter) at 13

Vidal (Inter) at 11

Perisic (Inter) at 11

Ozil (Fenerbahce) at 17

A bit of a freakish haul from the Inter game, guessing they won't all start.