Hunter Chase - 3.35 & 4.35 Musselburgh & 3.45 Wincanton

[Darran]

Never for one second did I think BOG would be needed to get a bigger price on Fumet D'oudairies, indeed I thought he would go off odds on. So for him to return 5/2 was staggering. It was a really impressive performance and although the bare form isn't strong, the time was good and you could see him as a possible Cheltenham contender next season as there should be more to come. I'm Wiser Now was 2nd again and I will keep saying that he will always find something to beat him no matter what the opposition. There were two big surprises in the race. The first was Barrack Hill finishing 3rd. Hard to know if we should take it on face value or not, but not sure I would be in a rush to back him. The 2nd surprise was the massive gamble on The Triple Pillar which never looked like landing. It was a strange gamble and to be fair he did well to finish 4th as he was really struggling a one stage. Captain McGinley got tired after helping make the running and the Wincanton race continues to work out poorly. Rebel Dawn Rising finished last after also being at the front and he will need to come on a lot for the run.

I put in the preview that Cat Tiger would need another run to qualify for Aintree, but it seems his last win in France will actually count towards qualification and he put in a really good performance here. His owner will be back aboard at Aintree, but he looks an uncomplicated ride and Maxwell will have a strong chance of completing a Cheltenham/Aintree double as an owner. Fair play to Venetia Williams for the training performance to get Tango De Juilley to put in the performance he did and I suspect he would have won at Kelso had he not unseated at the 1st based on this effort. He will need another run to qualify for Aintree. Killaro Boy stumbled very badly after 5 out and that didn't help him although hard to think he still wouldn't have finished 3rd. Dr Des was really well backed and he well as well as could have been expected given the 3 ahead of him in the betting all ran up to form. It was another boost to the Warwick form though and he will find easier races than this. He will continue to be on my radar.

3 hunter chases today with two at Musselburgh and one at Wincanton. The 3.35 at Musselburgh looks a 2 horse race between Alcala and Looking Well. It is hard to see Federici closing the gap on Alcala so I don't fancy him. Alcala was outstayed by Salvatore in the Scottish Foxhunter, but he was given a very attacking ride that day and I suspect Cobden won't be quite so bold on him. He was also beaten by a progressive horse who has been entered at Cheltenham so it wasn't a bad performance by any means.

There are no stamina doubts about Looking Well although jumping isn't always foot perfect. His last win was 2 years ago off 133 at Doncaster. He ran in the Grimthorpe after that although he fell at the last when in 2nd. He wasn't seen until last November when running a sound enough race at Kelso over hurdles. He then ran in a race at Market Rasen which he had no chance in.

I think on balance the prices are right and I do think Alcala is the most likely winner of the race. I think he is the better horse and whilst he isn't the strongest of stayers the ground is better here and I don't think it will be as big a stamina test as the race last month was.

I think the 4.35 is all about if Captain Buck's shows he's form or not. He clearly has his quirks, but he looked good when winning at Larkhill over 2m4f a year ago and I put him up when he went back into handicap company for Paul Nicholls at Stratford in July. He won there and I thought Harry Cobden gave him a good ride. He then finished a close 3rd to Seddon at Cartmel before not going a yard at Newton Abbot. He went back pointing again in December when 3rd to Miss Seagreen at Larkhill when ridden by an inexperienced rider and he was never really put in the race until it was too late. He certainly sets the standard.

Six A Side has stuck to pointing since he was 3rd at Cheltenham in May 2017 and he won his only other hunter chase at Kelso the year before. Both runs saw him make mistakes and he isn't exactly foot perfect in points either. He has won his last 4, but he's 13 now and hasn't run for a year. The form of those wins isn't as strong as the favourites and it is hard to see how he beats an on form Captain Buck's.

Absainte is a likeable mare at the right level and she ran well enough to finish 2nd to Wishing And Hoping a year ago at Catterick. I think this sort of trip will suit her better especially as she likes to be handy. She usually runs her race and should do again, but I'm not sure she can beat the favourite.

Bletchley Castle also likes to be at the front end in his races and he should have his ideal conditions here. He was running well at Warwick when he was last seen and back in a hunter chase I can also see him going well.

Dark Mahler is the other one of note and he should be better on this better ground than he has been able to show in his two hunter chases so far this season. Even so on a line through Miss Seagreen he has got a fair bit of ground to make up on the favourite. 

If Captain Buck's runs his race then he wins as on form he is the best horse in the race. I do think we have the wrong 2nd favourite though so there is some value a bit further down the market and I can see Absainte enjoying this test and could be the one to finish 2nd to him.

So how to play the two races. I am going to double up the two favourites to start with. I think Absainte is worth an e/w saver and I will also have a small bet on the forecast as well.

Alcala/Captain Buck's 2pts double @ 6/4 with BetVictor

Abasinte 0.5pts e/w @ 15/2 with Bet365

Captain Buck's to beat Absainte f/c 0.5pts

In between the 2 Musselburgh races we have the 3.45 at Wincanton which looks a good contest. Regular followers will know I am a big fan of Caid Du Berlais having put him up in the last two Foxhunters (pulled up both times) as well as putting him up for both his superb victories at Punchestown. Both wins in Ireland were ultra impressive and I would imagine a hat-trick bid will be the target this season. He is 12 now, but he has run well fresh in points in the past so there is no reason to think he won't perform. The slight question mark would be the drop in trip, but he has plenty of speed so it might not be an issue.

Dashing Perk is an interesting hunter chase newcomer as he ran well in a couple of Aintree handicaps in November and December. Both those efforts would see him have a good chance here. He was pulled up last time at Doncaster, but he finished lame and that run can be easily overlooked for me. This trip is his best one as well.

Capitaine probably didn't see 3m out at Larkhill in his first point in December and it was also his first run for 13 months. He was running OK over hurdles when last seen under rules, but he's never really found a great deal under pressure and I would be a bit surprised if he bit the current front two in the betting.

The horse with the highest handicap rating in the race is Conrad Hastings who has a mark of 140. He won a Kilbeggan handicap off that mark 3 starts ago over this trip although that was in June 2019 and his last run was August that year. First run with new connections and whilst I wouldn't rule him out he will have to be at the top of his game to win this.

I know it doesn't take much money to shorten one up the night before at big prices, but even so the move on Golden Tobouggan was pretty big and surprising. His best runs were his 3 2nds in the 2019 season as he finished 2nd to Virak, Haymount and Caryto Des Brosses all 3 good horses. He missed last season and then won in October at Maisemore beating Silent Man by 1/2L. Now that won has won 2 handicaps since, but both from lowly marks so he is going to have to improve massively on that to play a part here. 33s was possibly too big, but unless someone knows something I don't then he makes little appeal at his current price.

Conrad Hastings is the unknown and it wouldn't surprise if he did win. I am fully expecting Dashing Perk to put his Doncaster effort behind him and he will surely make a bold bid from the front, but I have to stick with Caid Du Berlais here. This looks a good starting place for him and he can have the class to peg back Dashing Perk to give his trainer the first part of a possible across the card double.

Caid Du Berlais 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365

Finally on a busy day I have to have something on Apple's Queen in the 1.00 at Wincanton. She is potentially very well handicapped on her pointing form. She had lost her way a bit last season, but bounced back in style at Larkhill in December where she clocked a faster winning time than Miss Seagreen carrying 21lbs more than she did. She would have a chance in an average hunter chase and for the first time today she gets her ground under rules. Her two hunter chase runs were both on soft ground and then at Exeter last time in her first handicap she ran well enough on heavy ground. On much quicker ground this afternoon she has to be backed at a double figure price in what is a pretty weak contest.

Apple's Queen @ 22/1 with Bet365

[Mindfulness]

Great stuff today @Darran , well done mate. It was close to being even better, thanks once again.

[Darran]

Couldn’t believe when she came down as she looked booked for 2nd still another good day.