raylin Posted August 20, 2005 Share Posted August 20, 2005 What the hell. gonna try this system to pay for my holiday in sunny South Africa System involves betting on correct scores were the home or away team as a match odds of less than 1.5 . The assumptions made are that 80% of all games end up with a score line of 1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1,3-1 Hopefully the combination of correct score bets will give an average of 2.0 All bets taken with betfair Starting bank 100 1st bet ----- Man U v Aston Villa match odds 1.27 1-0 7.8 ----all bets 1 point 2-0 6.6 3-0 8.6 2-1 9.2 3-1 15.0 2nd bet Liverpool v Sunderland match odds 1.32 1-0 7.6 all bets 1 point 2-0 6.6 3-0 8.6 2-1 10.0 3-1 15.0 Bank now 90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted August 20, 2005 Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: correct score system nice idea, someone did something like this last season, i think it was dannycash(?) good luck, i'll be keen to see how you get on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 20, 2005 Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: correct score system http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9283 Made a profit of about 26 points before I knocked it on the head. It can work. Good luck:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted August 20, 2005 Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: correct score system yeah it was danny cash heres a link http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9283 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 20, 2005 Author Share Posted August 20, 2005 Re: correct score system Man U won 1-0 Liverpool won 1-0,at 7.8 and 7.6 total winnings 15.4 -0.8 commission = 14.6 Bank= 104.6 Bet3 Barcelona V Betis match odds 1.34 1-0 9.0 1 point each bet 2-0 7.2 3-0 9.2 2-1 11.5 3-1 11.5 New bank 99.6 Joeelar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 24, 2005 Share Posted August 24, 2005 Re: correct score system have you given up already? Arsenal v Fulham / Chelsea v West Brom tonight mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiCro Posted August 25, 2005 Share Posted August 25, 2005 Re: correct score system Danny - I was just interested to know why you 'knocked this system on the head' given that it was looking half decent, any particular reason ? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 25, 2005 Author Share Posted August 25, 2005 Re: correct score system Hi Danny didnt like either arsenal or chelsea Hopefully will have tips for the weekend Joeelar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted August 25, 2005 Share Posted August 25, 2005 Re: correct score system :hope good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 26, 2005 Share Posted August 26, 2005 Re: correct score system Good stuff Raylin - look forwards to seeing how you do mate!! GiCiro, the only reason I stopped was because I wasn't sure how much longer I could keep maintaining a profit. I generally wanted to acheive double the price of the basic home win using 5-6 correct scores. So if I could turn a 1.33 shot into a 1.66 shot using correct scores, (including Any Unquoted markets on betfair) then it was a selection. However, I was still unsure as to WHICH SCORES to use. i.e should I select 1-0 2-0 3-0 2-1 3-1 OR 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0 5-0 OR 2-0 3-0 Any Unquoted etc.... It basically boiled down to whether on not I thought the opponent had the abillity to score and this was a huge factor for the system - this was a choice I had to make for every game, not something that was chosen for me by a set of rules. I basically thought I'd got lucky enough times and decided to quit while I was ahead. Best of luck Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 26, 2005 Author Share Posted August 26, 2005 Re: correct score system hi Danny have you still got that excel spreadsheet for inputing correct score odds to give the same return on each bet. I have decided to use oddcheckers to get the best odds as the commission on betfair is eating into the profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 26, 2005 Author Share Posted August 26, 2005 Re: correct score system Sellections for Sat 1 unit per bet Hearts v Motherwell. 1-0 , 7.5 Paddy Powers 2-0 ,7.0 Ladbrokes 3-0 ,10.0 Will Hills 3-1 ,11.0 Will Hills 4-1 , 23.0 Bet365 Rangers v Hibs 1-0 ,8.0 Totesport 2-0 ,6.5 Will Hills 3-0 ,8.0 Will Hills 3-1 ,11.0 Will Hills 4-1 ,17 Will Hills New bank 89.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted August 27, 2005 Share Posted August 27, 2005 Re: correct score system PM me with your email, i'll send it to ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted August 28, 2005 Author Share Posted August 28, 2005 Re: correct score system What a load of cr@p Only 1 bet today so 2 units for each correct score. Dunfermline v Celtic 0-1 7.0 0-2 8.6 Betfair 0-3 9.0 Bet365 1-2 9.0 Ukbetting 1-3 14.0 Betfair New bank 79.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeryone Posted September 25, 2005 Share Posted September 25, 2005 Re: correct score system Hi, I was looking at this the other night and thought i would give it a go. I have had four wins out of four (lucky on a couple) which has been great for my bank balance:D But what i did notice was the best prices are for 3-0,3-1 games so do you look out for big teams playing bottom of the table sides or is there a better way to choose the games you bet on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 25, 2005 Share Posted September 25, 2005 Re: correct score system Hi, cheeryone, the only advice I can give you to avoid missing the 3-0,3-1 etc. scores, is don't select Premier matches, at the moment, more of these type of results are likely to occur in league 1 (English) matches where the goal average per match is higher. There were two such results (3-1) in last Saturday's L1 matches. But on a general point, (a) I wouldn't bet on 3-1's, - 1-1's and 1-0's are 'easier' to find, and, (b) I wouldn't bet on correct scores, FULL STOP. ......but, hey, what do I know?.........;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeryone Posted September 26, 2005 Share Posted September 26, 2005 Re: correct score system Hi Spreadman, Thanks for the advise! What i did on the four games was to bet 1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1 & 3-1 as above. If you can find the right prices on betfair the least you should walk away with (if the team wins the game) would be around £2 profit. I was looking at big teams like chelsea and Real Madrid who should win their games. What I would ask is if you know what bets there are that have the highest chance of winning be it horse racing or football or any sport. Not bet wins 100% of the time thats why its a gamble but i am trying to find the ones that have the best chance of winning. I have also started to lay horse races and was doing well until a couple of weeks ago when i lost the lot! any advise you can give will be more than welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 26, 2005 Share Posted September 26, 2005 Re: correct score system Cheeryone, I do back and lay the horses on the exchange, not very often, and winning even less often. I know that there are punters in this forum that do fairly well with their tips, on the horses and football, and other betting areas. I can only advise you on what I find profitable, and that is spread betting. That's why I advised you against correct score betting. I make a little cash by backing the fixed odds tips posted in the forum, but imo, spread betting is best for me. It does not suit everyone, and can cost you dearly, but I feel it gives you the 'best chance of winning'. GL. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted September 26, 2005 Share Posted September 26, 2005 Re: correct score system The over round on correct score bets is something stupid like 140% from the high street bookies, may be that you can get a little better on betfair. but over the long term covering all "likely" scores I see no way that you can do that. The assumptions made are that 80% of all games end up with a score line of 1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1,3-1 Are you sure of that figure mate ? Have you checked it out at www.football-data.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiCro Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Re: correct score system I did some stats on the top 2 teams from the English, Italian and Spanish leagues last season and came out with the following, on league games which ended in a score line of 1-0,2-0,3-0,2-1,3-1 :- Chelsea Home - 53% Away - 63% Arsenal Home - 42% Away - 47% Juventus Home - 67% Away - 58% AC Milan Home - 47% Away - 61% Barcalona Home - 68% Away - 44% Real Madrid Home - 53% Away - 44% Although some of these percentages aren't particularly high, by applying filters, such as the following, it appears possible to predict a high number of successful games:- tough league games before or after the CL local derbies meaningless games i.e. the league has already been won games against bottom teams which end up as 4-0 4-1 etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeryone Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Re: correct score system Hi Guys, Got lucky again with this system. 2-1 win to Man U giving me a £6.80 profit. Thats 5 out of 5. I am sure i will lose many games and lose the lot before long but while the going is good please let me enjoy this moment Thanks for the stats Gicro but i am not one for looking at history to much. As an example why should one team lose to another because they have the last four games. This fifth game they might have new players and a fully fit team unlike the last time they met. I think looking at the current form over the last 2-3 games might be of use but most of the time its a gut feeling that a huge side like Man U or Arsenal will beat Everton or Wigan haha!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreaditabout Posted September 27, 2005 Share Posted September 27, 2005 Re: correct score system Are you there jackg ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeryone Posted September 29, 2005 Share Posted September 29, 2005 Re: correct score system Well guys another 1-0 for MILAN which gets me just over £2 back. Thought they would beat them more than that but its still a profit. Thats 6/6 which is a record for me. If you like i will start posting the picks before as i know you could be thinking i could be saying this after games (which it all go wrong now haha). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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