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Peterborough vs AFC Wimbledon

The game I want to preview in League One this weekend is a bit of a low-risk affair. It's Peterborough versus AFC Wimbledon in a 3pm GMT kick-off on Saturday afternoon. It's a clash between a home side that boast the best record on home turf in the division taking on a travelling team who have really struggled to pick up the wins on the road so far this season.

Peterborough come into this game full of confidence having taken an impressive 32 points from 13 home league games this season. Darren Ferguson's men are in 3rd with two games in hand on 2nd placed Hull. Could this be the season they make a much-anticipated return to the Championship? Just 1 defeat in their last 11 league games including winning their last 3 league matches in a row has spurred on this rise up the table. The Posh are still scoring goals but have shown defensive solidity with their 25 goals conceded in 27 games only bettered by Lincoln, Hull, and Sunderland.

AFC Wimbledon are still a lot of people's favourite second (or maybe third!) team nowadays. Mark Robinson replaced Glyn Hodges as manager a few days ago but the club hasn't played a league game since 6th February due to postponed fixtures. It's not ideal, especially after they had won that fixture by a 3-2 score away to Wigan. The Dons haven't been able to build on it. The team is down in 20th place but are outside the relegation zone on goal difference with two games in hand on 21st placed Northampton who are directly behind them. That win to Wigan ended a run of 11 league games without victory so can the team make it two wins in a row?

OK, so this might seem like a banker but the break that AFC Wimbledon have had after that long-awaited league win is a complete wildcard. Peterborough remain the best team at home in this division though and I have to go with that fact. The ELO ratings are backing a home win so it makes total sense to support that. The only kicker is whether both teams will score or not. I think we could see a 4th Peterborough clean sheet in 6 home league games.

Peterborough to Win to Nil @ 2.80 with Betfair

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.87 with SBK

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Salford City vs Carlisle

One game that stands out for me in League Two this weekend is the fixture between Salford City and Carlisle in a 3pm GMT kick-off on Saturday afternoon. The home side are starting to pick up a bit of form and they take on an away team that had been topping the table not too long ago but a number of postponed matches has seen their league position and form slide away.

Salford City seem more determined than ever to get out of this division this season. The Class of '92 owners dispensed with Graham Alexander earlier in the season and replaced him with former team mate Richie Wellens. It's hard to say if Wellens has actually improved the Ammies or not but the club are in 4th place and just 3 points off the pace of the automatic promotion spots. Just 1 loss in their last 6 league games including back-to-back victories against Cambridge United and Barrow has given their fans belief that this could be their year.

Carlisle were killing it in the run-up to Christmas with the team emerging as the team to beat. Unfortunately, a mixture of covid-19 outbreaks and bad weather has led to matches being postponed. The Cumbrians are now down in 9th place and 1 point outside the play-offs had 10 of their last 14 league games postponed. Playing so inconsistently has clearly hit the team's form with the club losing their last two league games against Forest Green Rovers and Harrogate Town. As someone who has managed a team that has had fixtures postponed frequently, I can tell you it's a nightmare. No chance for momentum or maintaining match sharpness.

My feeling for this game is that it's a cracking opportunity for Salford City to build on their run of wins against a team that haven't played much competitive action this calendar year. I think it's just the 4 league games played in 2021 for Carlisle compared to the 8 league games that Salford City have played. The hosts are in better form, they'll be sharper, and I would be surprised if they don't make it 3 league wins in a row here. My only concern is that Carlisle remain a quality side so I'll bottle job it slightly by backing draw no bet.

Salford City Draw No Bet : 1.81 with SBK

BTTS @ 1.94 with SBK

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