Hunter Chases - 3.15 & 3.47 Leicester

[Darran]

I am led to believe that Thursday sees the first divided hunter chase for 20 years which is much needed so horses can actually get a run and we have two max fields as well. The races are very uncompetitive though and the vast majority have no obvious chance and really both favourites ought to be winning.

In division 1 Chameron should be pretty hard to beat as his pointing form is way above anything else in the field. Paul Nicholls owns him and used to train before sending him to Rose Loxton last season. Since Rose sadly passed away her husband Sam has taken over the training, but she trained him to two successes at Larkhill in January and March. First up he beat Miss Seagreen by 15L and then bolted up in the Coronation Cup. The concern would be that he fell once and unseated once in 4 starts over fences under rules and the other one he was miles back in last. He does look a different horse now though. He does still need to qualify for Cheltenham so the one concern is if they will prioritise that over winning, but really he shouldn't be going anywhere near Cheltenham if he doesn't win this.

Matts Commission is 2nd in and has won 7 out of 14 in points including both starts last season, but there isn't too much depth to his form and as much as he should finish in the 1st 3 he would need something to happen to Chameron to win the race.

I think a bigger danger will be Envoye Special who used to be a stablemate to the favourite. He was reported to have a breathing problem on his last start for Nicholls in July, but he hasn't had a breathing op and they are carrying on with the tongue-tie. He was given a very quiet at Larkhill in December on pointing debut and was just never put into the race which was won by Salvatore. His stamina has never truly been tested, but I think he will stay and he was due to run over further at Wincanton a couple of weeks ago.

Shometheway won her Restricted and Intermediate last season and you would imagine she is improving, but she has a lot to find on form at this stage with the 3 above. Conditions should suit though.

I don't think anything else is worth a mention.

In division 2 in my view if Premier Magic runs up to anything near the same level of form that he showed when beat Wishing And Hoping on his seasonal return then he will win. Nothing else comes close to running to that sort of level as most of these have struggled to even win a Restricted. We know the trainers horses are flying at the moment and he really ought to be the 2nd winner of the week for the yard.

The other Gibbs runner is Boss Baby who has been backed at big prices, but he hasn't even lost his maiden tag yet so I can't be having him. Bradley has been riding No Limitations whose 2nd to Miss Seagreen at Didmarton last March was a good effort. He finished behind Gottagottagetaway at Maisemore when they were 2nd and 3rd, but he won at Larkhill last time. Their form though isn't as good as the favourites.

Funnily enough I do think I'm Wiser Now might be the one to chase the favourite home. He's still a maiden and clearly has his quirks as he ought to have won at Barbury last time and fell when in front at Maisemore the time before. He looks the type of horse to continually find one too good at whatever level he races at so although others have won races I can see him hitting the frame here and possibly finish 2nd.

I know it is dull, but it would be surprising if both favourites don't win the two races on all known form so I am going to keep it simple and stick them in a double.

Chameron and Premier Magic 2pts double @ 2.15/1 with Betfair

At Fontwell in their 3.58 there is a horse running who has actually beaten Premier Magic and gets to run off a mark of just 82 in a handicap hurdle. Not surprisingly the really fancy prices have gone, but on the form of that Restricted win a year she is clearly well handicapped. She pulled up after that in a point, but she ran quite well in a jumpers bumper at the start of the month on her first start since which bodes well. Her jockey takes off another 3lbs as well and she is still over priced with most bookies paying 5 places as well.

Fleur Du Pommier @ 10/1 with Bet365 to 4 places or 10/1 with Betfair to 5 places

[yossa6133]

Cheers Darran. Thought they were both beat!