Racing Chat - Saturday 16th Jan

[The Brigadier]

It has to go down as one of the most low key racing Saturday’s of the year but there’s still plenty of winners to be found so let’s have a look a the terrestrial TV races in time order. 

1.50 Warwick 3m Grade 2 Novices’ Chase

A disappointing turnout of only three going to post here and with stamina doubts over Colin Tizzard’s Fiddlerontheroof this should be yet another winner for the prolific winning machine of Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden. He impressed when winning at Newbury last time and despite a 5lb penalty for that victory should be following up here. The third in is Phil Middleton’s Golan Fortune who’s certainly no mug but may have to settle for a minor position. 

NEXT DESTINATION 2 points win @ 8/11 William Hills

 

2.05 Market Rasen 2m 125yds Handicap Hurdle

A poor turnout and it’s hard to look beyond Alan King’s Edwardstone. He unseated on his chasing debut last time and his trainer feels that it’s a bit late in the season to persevere with fences so is happy to revert to the smaller obstacles with next month’s Betfair Hurdle the target (where currently he has 10-10 but if he wins here will incur a 5lb penalty). He’s a classy sort who ran 6^th in last season’s Supreme Hurdle with the five in front of him Shishkin, Abracadbras, Chantry House, Asterion Forlonge and Allart. King has always held him in high esteem and although he wouldn’t wont bottomless ground he should be able to take care of his 4 rivals headed by Jennie Candlish’s Oscars Leader. 

EDWARDSTONE 2 point win @ 6/5 Bet 365

 

2.25 Warwick 2m 5f Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle

A decent sized field with several holding claims. The ground is pushing towards heavy and this will be a real slog. Admirel didn’t impress last time and has to carry a 3lb penalty for that victory. Make Me A Believer impressed when winning last time at Cheltenham and has to be a player here. Colin Tizzard is having a season to forget but he can take this with Oscar Elite who’s shown stamina in abundance when winning two novice hurdles at Chepstow on bad ground. He’s the highest rated on official ratings and in a real slog he could be the answer. 

OSCAR ELITE 1 point each way 5/1 Bet 365

 

2.40 Market Rasen 2m 7f 16yrds Hurdle

This should be fought out by Nicky Henderson’s On The Blind Side and Neil King’s Lil Rockerfeller. The former has to shoulder a 4lb penalty here for his listed handicap hurdle win at Cheletenham in November but comes here on the back of a decent 2^nd to McFabulous at Kempton last Saturday. Lil Rockerfeller is a very likeable individual who always seems to run his race but hasn’t actually won for over two years now. Mohaayed is third in the betting but is held by On The Blind Side whilst the others have a bit to find now. 

ON THE BLIND SIDE 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet 365 

 

3.00 Warwick 3m 5f 54yds Classic Handicap Chase

A real test of stamina with 13 declared. Captain Chaos has obviously been laid out for this having finished runner up last season off of a 2lb lower mark. He wore blinkers that day and when subsequently bolting up at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe. He hasn’t worn them in three outings this season but surprise surprise they’re back on here and having been backed from as big as 16/1 earlier in the week should put up a bold bid though lets not forget he couldn’t win this last year from a slightly lower handicap mark. Le Breuil also ran in this last year but lost his chance from the standing start. He’s had his wind tinkered with since his slightly disappointing third in the Becher Chase and along with Red Infantry and Late Romantic have been re-routed here following Catterick’s abandonment on Thursday. Alan King (below) has won this twice in recent years with West End Rocker and Kings d’Argent and is a race he likes to target one at so his 7 year old Notachance looks the most likely winner to me. Raised 7lb for a comfortable Bangor success 66 days ago he’s been given a nice break and trained for this (according to his trainer in this week’s Weekender). 

NOTACHANCE 1 point each way  9/2 Paddy Power 1/5 odds 1234

 

3.15 Market Rasen 2m 125yds mares listed NH Flat race

The interesting runner here has to be the Willie Mullins trained Grangee who impressed when winning quite a modest bumper 83 days ago at Galway in October. Mullins described her afterwards as being pony sized. Mullins came over with a rare runner away from the Festivals to win this event last year impressively with Panic Attack who subsequently joined David Pipe and she must be given plenty of respect. She will however make the market for the smart filly of Pam Sly’s Eileendover – a granddaughter of Sly’s 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa. She’s looked something special in blitzing two bumpers at Huntingdon (good ground, 29 lengths) and Wetherby (soft ground, 16 lengths). Those races were at 1m 5 1/2f and 1m 4 1/2f so she has to prove her stamina but watching the two victories back she most certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her races. As a 4 year old she also receives a hefty 11lb from Mullins filly who would have to be way above average to beat Pam Sly’s. 

EILEENDOVER 2 point win @ 6/4 Bet Victor

 

3.35 Warwick 3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

A competitive renewal of a Pertemps Qualifier where, as I’m sure we’re all aware to qualify for the Final at Cheltenham in March you need to finish in the first six. Come On Teddy has to be a major player here despite his 7lb rise for his Cheltenham victory, that was gained at the chief expense of On The Blind Side who went on to give the useful McFabulous some sort of race at Kempton. David Pipe’s Kepagge has a big reputation to live up to but disappointed me at Cheltenham on his re-appearance. Last season’s Welsh National winner Potters Corner took a handicap hurdle before winning that prestigious chase last season and considering he races here off of 18lb lower than his chase mark he too could be in the shake up. But the one I like is the Fergal O’Brien trained Imperial Alcazar who was a smart staying novice last season and ran in one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the season when 9^th in The Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock won by Main Fact back in November. Dropped a pound for that he’s all about stamina and I expect a much more prominent run today. 

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR 1 point each way @ 7/1 paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234 

 

[calva decoy]

It doesn't look great & with an 8am inspection at Market Rasen .

I've a feeling if there's lying snow but milder weather coming in they'll be more than one to keep us hanging on !