Racing Chat Saturday Dec. 5th

[The Brigadier]

Altior is the star of the show tomorrow and let’s hope he shows what he’s capable of and the ground doesn’t blunt his chances. Here’s my thoughts on the terrestrial TV races in chronological order.

Aintree’s feature race is the Becher Chase run over the Grand National fences at 1.30. I’ve covered this in my preview earlier in the week and nothing has changed my mind in thinking that Ben Pauling’s Le Breuil, with luck in running, will run a big race.

LE BREUIL 1 point each way @ 6/1 (advised Monday)

 

The 1.50 Sandown is the Grade 1 Henry V111 Novices’ Chase run over just short of 2m. Six highly promising novice chasers whizzing around the Esher track is what we all want to see. Allmankind was ultra impressive at Warwick on his fencing debut sauntering home from Zanza who came out last Saturday and won a Newbury handicap. His exuberant front running will get them all at it here you would have thought. Paul Nicholls runs Hitman who was as equally impressive at Ffos Las coming home 30 lengths clear. This Ex French 4 year old looks very good. Ga Law is on a four timer following 3 novice wins this Autumn on good ground but his win in France was gained on heavy ground so the ground may not inconvenience him. Then we have the Tizzzard runner Eldorado Allen who was arguably a lucky winner at Cheltenham last time benefiting from Gumball’s late fall. I was very impressed with Hitman so he will just be the selection but it’s a tough call as it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the above four won.

HITMAN 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365

 

Aintree’s 2^nd race is a 2m1f listed juvenile fillies only hurdle run at 2.05 with a warm favourite in the Stuart Edmunds trained filly Megan who bolted up on her national debut at Leicester. She looked good there and is the most likely winner but is scant value at around 6/4. I would be worried about the soft ground for Hiconic who’s shown a preference for better ground. A couple of interesting newcomers are Alan King’s, who’s won this contest three times in the last eight years, Her Indoors, a flat winner rated 76 on the level and Gavin Cromwell’s Army Of One who’s run 5 times in Germany before joining Irish trainer Cromwell. Cromwell has won this race twice in the last five years so his runner is also interesting. At the prices I’ll play King’s runner here who won’t mind the soft ground.

HER INDOORS 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365

 

I would love to see dual Champion Chaser Altior  (below) win the 2.25 – the Tingle Creek. He’s pushing 12 years old in a months time but the vibes are all positive form Seven Barrows and there’s no doubt he’s the best horse in the race. It’s just a case of whether father time has caught up with him especially on ground that just maybe a bit too soft for him (even though he is 4 from 5 on soft ground). Paul Nicholls is firing two at the Champ with last year’s Champion Chase victor Politologue and Haldon Cup winner Greaneteen. Politologue has not come near to Altior the three times they’ve met and I really can’t have Greaneteen who won a handicap last time. The ground looks to have gone for Rouge Vif and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Castlegrace Paddy run ok without winning. I wont be having a bet but I’ll be cheering on Altior to show he’s still a very very good horse.

 

Aintree is next at 2.40 with the Many Clouds Chase, a Grade 2 event run over 3m1f. Last year’s Cheltenham Gold cup runner up Santini makes his re-appearance here and at round 5/4 I want to be against him as he’s a notoriously stuffy horse who may just need this run. He struggled to keep up with stable companion Beware The Bear in a recent Newbury gallop and first time out last season he nearly got beaten but the much lower rated Now McGinty. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s the best horse in the field but first time out he may just be found out. The obvious two to take him on with are Frodon who was impressive at Cheltenham 6 weeks ago and Native River. It’s the former I want to be with and lets not forget last time he had subsequent Ladbroke Trophy winner some 15 1/2 lengths behind him giving him 26lb! This sharp track can play to his front running tactics with Bryony Frost getting them all at it with his accurate jumping.

FRODON 2 points win @ 5/2 betvictor

 

The London National is run over 3m 5f at 3.00 and to these eyes looks to be between the impressive Southern National victor Cloudy Glen and Stuart Edmunds’ Classic Ben. The former could be called the winner a long way out at Fontwell but the handicapper has re-assessed him and put him up 11lb. Classic ben has an excellent record here and has fallen to a mark of 130 which is what he won off of last season here. He’s a joy to watch at the Railway fences.

CLASSIC BEN 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

The biggest field of the day is the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase run at 3.15 over 2m 5f. A wide open handicap with firms betting 7/1 the field. You’re going to need plenty of luck in the race and I’m going small each way with two big odds shots. Swift Crusader is trained by the very capable Samuel Drinkwater and this ex Hunter is I’m told ready to run a big race with Tom Scudamore in the saddle off of bottom weight. I also like Nigel Twiston-Davie’s Flying Angel who went off 11/4 favourite for this race last year on the back of a cosy win at Ascot when finishing 4th. Not much has gone right for him since but he’s now 4lb lower than what he ran off of last year here and could be value at the price.

SWIFT CRUSADER ½ point each way @ 20/1 betvictor 1/5^th 12345

FLYING ANGEL ½ point each way @ 16/1 william hills 1/5^th 12345

 

The finale at Sandown is the 3.35 – a listed 2m handicap hurdle which by then could be run on some pretty tiring ground. The favourite is Nicky Henderson’s Mister Coffey who impressed here 4 weeks ago when taking a fierce hold but still seeing the race out. He’s been raised 10lb for that and though he is the most likely winner here I’ll be looking elsewhere for some each way value. 4 of the 10 runners are making their handicap debuts with maybe the most interesting the Olly Murphy trained Nickolson who bumped into a smart one of Nicky Richards up north last time. His mark of 134 looks workable I reckon and would be on my short list. The one I’m interested in though is Fergal O’Brien’s Totterdown who has one way of running and that’s to go off at a real clip and play catch me if you can. It’s worked twice before at Sandown off of marks of 129 and 130 on heavy ground and although he’s now rated 139 the capable Liam Harrison claims 7lb so effectively bringing his mark down to 132. He may not be the best horse in the race but one thing’s for sure at a double digit price you’ll get one hell of a run for your money.

TOTTERDOWN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365

 

[Tedthewolf]

3.15 Aintree Another cracking saturday handicap 3 big priced e/w  corals bog 1/5 5 places

DINGO DOLLAR 14/1 this horse is so very well handicaped  & has had  a wind op since last run if it has worked   will return to form and be in the mix at the death. Deffo more wins to come from this very decent horse

BEAU  BAY 25/1 ran well in this last  year  a lb lower 25's look way to generous to me.

AMALFI  DOUG 40/1 just a very small e/w play on the outsider  better than last 2 runs FP   although  he has won over 3miles  i think  the drop  in trip will suit has a squeak.

 

Happy Punting

Edited December 5, 2020 by Tedthewolf