Racing Chat - Friday 27th Nov

[The Brigadier]

Some interesting NH racing takes place tomorrow at Newbury, the first day of two culminating in the Ladbrokes Trophy Gold Cup on Saturday.

Its been a predominately dry week and the ground should be perfect at good (good to soft in places) with a dry forecast.

The first race at 12.15 features the first public appearance of Nicky Henderson’s FLINTEUR SACRE, a full brother to the legend Sprinter Sacre and though it doesn’t always work out with breeding I was lucky enough to have a guided tour to Henderson’s base in Seven Barrows earlier in the year and there was plenty of high adulation for him. Barry Geraghty is quoted as saying he was the easiest bumper winner he’s ridden since Sprinter Sacre himself, high praise indeed when you consider how many NH Flat races BG would have won.

He has little to beat and anything but a facile victory will suffice. If ante-post betting is your bag (it certainly is mine!) then I would take the 16/1 generally available about him for the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham as if he wins in the manner expected the bookmakers will be falling over themselves in cutting him for Cheltenham.

Four previous winners go to post for the novice hurdle at 1.15 with Messr’s Nicholls, Henderson & Skelton saddling nice prospects. Henderson does so well at the track but his Bothwell Bridge may just be foiled by  Paul Nicholls’ Bravemansgame though shouldn’t be much between them with Skelton’s Aintree winner Real Stone having his form boosted by a subsequent victory for third that day Danny Kirwan.

BRAVEMANSGAME 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365

Nicky Henderson (yes that man again) unleashes his Caribbean Boy in the 1.50 in a race he won last year with RSA winner Champ. He’s a lovely horse though has yet to encounter ground like this with all of his career runs (bar a well beaten debut effort) coming on soft or heavy. Colin Tizzard is finally getting his stable going and has the favourite here in Fiddlerontheroof who didn’t impress me when scraping home at Exeter last time although he’s officially rated 8lb superior to his two rivals here and would be my pick. The third runner in the line up is Paul Nicholls’ aptly named Getaway Trump who is no mug but has never convinced in finishing off his races.

FIDDLERONTHEROOF 1 point win Evs betvictor

The 2.25 is a highly competitive handicap chase with chances given to plenty. The Skelton’s Oldgrangewood won this in 2017 and 2019 but is now 12lb higher than last year’s victory. Top weight Cepage has a good record first time out and has to be on your shortlist but it’s Tom George’s CLONDAW CASTLE that I fancy. A good second in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last time (had Oldgrangewood 5 ½ lengths behind ) he’s a free jumping 8 year old who will appreciate the livelier ground more than most.

CLONDAW CASTLE 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365

What a cracker in store at 3.00 for the Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle over 3m 52yds. Paisley Park has to put a sub standard run in last years Stayers Hurdle behind him when it transpired he had an irregular heartbeat. He worked at Newbury last week (his galloping companion Hoi Polloi was beaten on Wednesday at Hereford). I like many was mightily impressed by McFabulous and his jumping technique at Chepstow in the Persian War and although he needs to step up again (at these weights he has 11lb to find with Paisley Park). Last year’s top novice and Albert Bartlett 4^th Thyme Hill has to be a player along with Aintree winner Summerville Boy.  Throw in last seasons shock Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar and we have one of, if not the, race of the NH season so far.

MCFABULOUS 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365

There’s a handicap blot in the finale at 3.35 in Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Hill Sixteen who bolted up in the mud last time at Ffos Las on his first run since leaving Sue Smith winning by a staggering 48 lengths. That was over fences and he reverts back to hurdles here off of a 3lb lower mark!! The only nagging doubt is that all of his form is on very soft ground and he won’t get that here though he’s so well in he may well get away with it as there’s nothing too unexposed amongst the opposition.

HILL SIXTEEN 1 point win @ 2/1 betvictor

 

[Villa Chris]

Newbury 2.25 

San Benedeto 20.5

Oldgrangewood 20.2

these two top rated and not much between them. Want to back both but will see if Oldgrangewood drifts out from 9/2 to 11/2 before I part with my money on that one. San Benedeto offers value at 15/2 and will enjoy the good ground. Also has a decent record at Newbury and is on his last winning mark which was at this course last year. 
 

San Benedeto 15/2

Newbury 3.00

Very exciting race in prospect here and Paisley Park is clear on ratings. If running anywhere near form I can’t see him getting beat regardless of how good some of the others look. Excuses can be made for the blip at Cheltenham and I expect him to be fit and ready to go here. Hoping to get better odds before I decide to back him. Can maybe see him drifting slightly so will hold on.