Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October

[Darran]

It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.

Flemington R1 (12.40am)

With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.

Aysar 11/10 with William Hill

Flemington R3 (2am)

I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.

Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair

Flemington R4 (2.40am)

The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.

Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365

Flemington R6 (4am)

I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.

Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.

September Run 3/1 with Bet365

Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair

Rosehill R6 (4.25am)

It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.

Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill

The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R7 (5.10am)

This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.

Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365

Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill

Rosehill R9 (6.25am)

A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.

Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

 

[richard-westwood]

305ascot 

Malaya   312 

Caius Marcius 310 

Sirbastapol  306 

Tricky race ....malaya has some good form over hurdles in the past so hopefully can put it together on the day ......sirbastapol is well fancied but caius Marcius is a big price and has been running some good races over chases and if he can transfer anywhere near back over hurdles then he could be too good for these ....interesting race 

Malaya 10pt win 6/1 will h

Caiusmarcius 10pt win 16/1 betv