Racing Chat - Saturday 24th September

[Darran]

Saturday morning sees the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. It looks a fascinating renewal and one I think will go to the home team. Other bets for Saturday will be posted later today.

 

Kodling - Had lost his way, but has been back in form this prep having won the G1 George Main and the G2 Hill Stakes the last twice.  He proved he stays 2000m last time and he was 2L in front of Avilius who ran well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Has a chance and wont mind if the rain hits and we get into the Soft range.

 

Humidor - The horse who pushed Winx very close in 2017 and was then 3rd the following year. He looked like he had lost his way, but Chris Waller has completely turned his form around. Was a shock winner here over 1600m on his 1st runthis prep and then split Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen in the Underwood at Caulfield. Was behind those 2 when 3rd last time in the Caulfield Stakes, but I suspect the race wasn't run to suit. His jockey Craig Williams was very bullish about him when he worked at the track earlier in the week and he clearly loves The Valley. If he hadn't been drawn in 14 I would have put him up as an e/w chance, but I reckon he outruns his odds.

 

Fierce Impact - A very consistent horse who beat Russian Camelot over 1600m at Flemington in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He was then 3rd to Kolding in the Hill Stakes. He handles a wet track, but his form over 2000m isn't as strong as others which is enough to put me off.

 

Master Of Wine - Just 10th in the Caulfield Cup last week and it is hard to see him playing a part here.

 

Mugatoo - Has shown massive progression since coming over from the UK and was very good this prep winning 3 on the bounce and then finished 2nd in The Met at Randwick last time. I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup with him as he looked a big player to me in that, but he was well behind Verry Elleegant in his only WFA G1 in the Tancred Stakes and that suggests he has a bit too find here.

 

Aspetar - Is a hold up horse so his draw of 3 doesn't actually do him too many favours. He seems an odd choice for this race to me given his hold up style and he is going to a need a fair bit of luck in running from the inside. Most of his form is over 2400m, but did win the York Stakes last time. He won easily although it wasn't a strong race. It is a shame he had to miss the Juddmonte International as it would have given us a better idea of how good he is, but since December he's only had two runs both coming in July and that concerns me as well.

 

Sir Dragonet - Has finished 2nd on all 4 starts this season although his 2nd to Magical last time obviously reads well enough. Hasn't won since his Chester Vase win when he made it 2/2 although he did go on to go off 11/4f for the Derby when he was 5th. It will be interesting if new connections ride him differently as surely his hold up style isn't going to be a plus here. Cut in the ground does suit though.

 

Magic Wand - Scratched

 

Arcadia Queen - Went off favourite for the Everest last year, but out to this trip last time beat Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. That was a really good performance, but it was a bit of a sit and sprint contest and this won't be. There is a doubt about her on soft ground as well if the rain hits. I just think if this race is run at a true tempo she might struggle to see it out as well as others especially if we see a Soft 6.

 

Nettoyer - Loves eating pizza and got stuck into one after winning the G1 Doncaster at huge odds in the Autumn. Was 2nd in a G3 last time and her form isn't good enough for this. 

 

Russian Camelot - Looked superb when winning the South Australian Derby in May and returned this prep with a very good 2nd over 1600m to Fierce Impact at Flemington in September. I loved the way he hit the line that day and he duly won the Underwood in good style at Caulfield on his next start. Was beaten at 2/5 in the Caulfield Stakes by Arcadia Queen, but the way that race was run would not have suited and this race will surely be run at a stronger tempo. The draw looks horrific on paper, but I just wonder if sitting on the outside of runners rather than trapped on the inside might help him and he should get a clearer run than some of his rivals. Rain will be an added plus as well.

 

Armory - Looks the pick of the UK & Irish runners having won a G3 over this trip at the Curragh and then finishing a 2L 3rd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes. He had been 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the start of the season as well. If he can back up the run at Leopardstown or even improve on it then he is a big danger to the locals.

 

Probabeel - She was going to be my pick for the Epsom last time until she got a shocking draw and it put me off. McEvoy gave her a peach of a ride though and she was an impressive winner. She has finished in the top 2 in 14 of her 18 starts and McEovy has a great record on her. She has only run over this distance once when finishing 2nd in a G1 back in March, but she is drawn in 2 and I think she will be able to sit handy behind the speed and could well get first run on those needing to come from behind. She has form on a wet track so that should hold no fears and she has a big chance.

 

Grandslam - God knows what he is even doing in the race given 2 starts back he was beaten in a BM64 at Flemington. He was 3rd at a massive price in the Caulfield Guineas last time and he will likely set the pace, but he is a doubtful stayer and shouldn't be good enough.

 

Buckhurst - Surprising he didn't get a place in the race to start with, but gets in with Magic Wand coming out. Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last week and I reckon this trip suits him better. Not sure he's good enough to win, but he should run well enough.

 

Verdict - I am going to go with Russian Camelot here. I think he is better than he was able to show behind Arcadia Queen last time and he should get a stronger gallop here which is what he needs over this trip. I am also going to cover Probabeel who is so consistent and looks to be drawn to get the perfect run. Armory can be best of the UK & Irish runners and Humidor is can out run his odds at his favourite venue.

 

Russian Camelot @ 4/1 with William Hill

Probabeel @ 17/2 with Betfair

[Zilzalian]

Interesting observations and analysis Darran. I bow to your superior knowledge of the Aussie horses but Think you might have underestimated Aspetar, i'm going/gone in big on him and 16/1 bet365 is a silly price so the wheel barrow is out.