Racing Chat - Saturday 5th September

[Darran]

Again plenty of cracking action in Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday morning with plenty of Group racing to look forward to. Race 4 at Randwick sees the return of the world's best sprinter Nature Strip (yes he is better than Battash) as he works up towards The Everest next month. He's obviously very short, but his 1st up record isn't actually that good and if he does get beat tomorrow I wouldn't be too worried. He has looked very good in his trials though so hopefully we will see him win. I have bets in 7 races 5 at Moonee Valley and 2 at Randwick. As I currently write Oddschecker are missing all the Australian meetings so I have just used Bet365 prices, but better might be available elsewhere. Hopefully Oddschecker will sort the issue out as I have asked them to. Also hopefully I can see an improvement profit wise as the last two weeks have not been good sadly.

 

Moonee Valley R1 (3.30am)

I like the claims of How Womantic here as she makes her return. She won her first 4 races which included a G3 win at Caulfield. Her only defeat was last time at Flemington in a G2, but she was caught wide there from a bad draw and had no cover and it certainly looked a run you could forgive. She's got a great draw tomorrow and I think she can continue her progression as she drops back down into handicap company.

 

How Womantic @ 2.80 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R2 (4.05am)

I am putting up ex UK horse Skyman here. He was due to run in a race here a couple of weeks ago, but was called off. It looked a very tough race for him though and this contest at this stage looks more suitable for him. He has won both his Australian starts and looks very progressive. He beat a fellow import last time and that horse has since bolted up in a race at Sandown. There are a couple of slight concerns about him as he doesn't have a great draw and will probably have to come from quite far back which given the nature of the track isn't ideal. In my view though he is better than this grade and those concerns are factored into his price so I am prepared to back him.

 

Skyman @ 6.50 win and 2.38 place with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R4 (5.15am)

Given his main rival Shot Of Irish looks so much better on a wet track I think Junipal looks a real solid chance here. His run 1st up was a cracking effort given horses were struggling to come from behind that afternoon and he ran on well to finish 3rd to Showmanship which looks really good form. Apart from the winner he had the fastest last 200m in the race. All his wins have been over this trip so the extra 200m is going to be right up his street. He's a course and distance winner as well.

 

Junipal @ 2.50 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R8 (7.45am)

A G2 contest here which sees the return of Harbour Views and Surprise Baby. Harbour Views has been talked up as a Cox Plate contender although he was a bit disappointing a couple of times last prep and I prefer the chances of Surprise Baby. He was last seen running a really good race when 5th in the Melbourne Cup. He had a terrible draw in 20 that day and that poor draw probably got him beat. Obviously this race is half the distance of the Melbourne Cup, but he ran a really good race in it last year when 4th in what was a stronger renewal. He has only had 11 starts, but in his 5 wins he has won over trips from 1200m to 3200m so the trip doesn't concern me. Connections are suggesting he is ready to run a big race even though the Melbourne Cup is clearly is main target and I take him to make a winning return.

 

Surprise Baby @ 2.80 with Bet365

 

Moonee Valley R9 (8.20am)

If Rivet Dancer wins this after putting him up the last twice I will be annoyed, but I prefer the chances of Dabiyr. He has plenty in his favour. He is 2/2 at the track and 3/3 2nd up. His 1st run of the prep saw him finish 3rd at Flemington in a really strong contest. The step up to this trip is much more suitable for him and Craig Williams should be able to get him settled just behind the leaders and hopefully he will be too strong for them in the straight.

 

Dabiyr @ 3.00 with Bet365

 

Randwick R5 (5.35am)

An open contest this, but I think ex UK horse Across Dubai is worth backing here. William Haggas used to train him over here and he won on his last race at Chelmsford in a Class 2 a couple of years ago. He wasn't seen until this May when he ran a solid race to finish 7th and then built on that when finishing 3rd a couple of weeks later. I thought that was a very good run on testing ground given his best form in the UK was either on good ground or on the AW. He's got a decent draw here and hopefully he should be able to settle a bit further forward than he was able to last time. He will improve again once going up in trip, but I do think he is capable of winning over this trip and he looks a big price at double figures.

 

Across Dubai @ 14.00 win and 3.75 place with Bet365

 

Randwick R9 (8.10am)

It is a shame the odds on favourite has been scratched here because I was going to oppose him. Icebath is the main pick and ran a huge race 1st up when she recorded the 2nd fastest last 400m and last 200m of the meeting. She looks better than a handicapper to me and she has already been placed in a Listed contest and a G3. There should be improvement 2nd up. I am going to have a saver on Cristal Breeze who was 3rd behind Icebath in that race. I think he has more to come as well and although he won on a Heavy track on his Australian debut I do think his UK form suggests he will be better on a quicker surface and I do want him onside.

 

Icebath @ 3.00 with Bet365

Cristal Breeze @ 5.50 with Bet365

[BillyHills]

Class 2 Handicaps

250 Haydock

 

230 Ascot

305 Ascot

 

1pt EW Patent @ bet365

Euchen Glen 14/1
Salayel 13/2
Kipps  11/2