BMW Championship

[Squirrel Nutkin]

I'm not one for researching the course, the players it suits, or the weather etc. I let the experts do all that, and then I'll compile it all and see what it throws up.

Early picks are all about Schauffele. To be honest I don't think the 18/1 is good enough value so I've done him as

Wire to wire winner 1pt @ 90/1

Round 1 leader and outright 1pt @ 40/1

 

Hovland is also popular, so

2pt ew @ 35/1 

Skybet, Paddy, Betfred all doing 7 places 1/5 

Will probably add a couple more before Thursday.

 

[Fader]

The second installment of the Fedex Play-offs on Thursday, with the BMW Championship. Just 70 players this week and although I think we'll see -20+ again this weekend come Sunday, I'm sure we will not see -30 again anytime soon.

I like somebody who can putt this weekend. I don't think smashing it long is as important as it was last week. Hitting fairways and good GIR is also very important also and basically great course management. The only real exception to that seems to be the last hole on the front and back, where perhaps you'd like abit more length.

Im looking at players that performed decent last week but also have the right stats in those key areas. I'm also looking at players on the bubble in the standings or players that will be looking at needing a big weekend.

I like Rahm this week but 10/1 is a joke and I've quickly forgot about him. I thought about Xander but much like Finau, I'm not sure when push comes to shove that Xander will go on and win with confidence. His stats are in the right place but I would also like to see some better driving accuracy from him and he also tends to start badly in tournaments. My first will be Webb Simpson. High GIR and accuracy stats and a very good putter, not to mention a top 10 position 2 out of the last 3 years in this event. Berger is 2nd, smashing it out the park for putting and driving accuracy. Not to mention Berger now has a 1st, 2nd and two 3rds in his last 6 tournaments.

Morikawa is my third bet. Number 1 for Driving accuracy recently and in the top 10 for GIR, if the putter behaves then I see no reason why Morikawa can't be up there again. Kisner is the next. Kisner is hitting some hot form right now. His approach play and putting have been on fire but even when he isn't in the ideal spot, his scrambling game has been up-to scratch.

Of the outsiders I am taking Henley this weekend. Hitting is beautiful at the moment with high GIR and accuracy. Much like Kisner though, he is getting out of trouble well too. I'm going to give Conners another shot this week after leaving him out for a few weeks. In a week you need driving accuracy, and good approach play I feel 100/1 for Conners is too big. Will he win the event? No. He could make top 7 though for a potential 20/1 payout.

2pts W.Simpson to win BMW Championship 20/1 bet365
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1pt E/W D.Berger to win BMW Championship 20/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W C.Morikawa to win BMW Championship 20/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W K.Kisner to win BMW Champiosnhip 35/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W V.Hovland to win BMW Champiosnhip 35/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)
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1pt E/W R.Henley to win BMW Champiosnhip 70/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)
0.5pts E/W C.Conners to win BMW Championship 100/1 paddypower (7 places, 1/5th)