Racing Chat - Tuesday Aug 18th

[BillyHills]

Ok, just 4 meetings

 

Mick Appleby has an interesting runner at Kempton, first time out for the yard and they have got Wiliam Buick to ride it.

6.00 Nigel Nott (7/1 generally)

Class 2 action at Fontwell, nothing of not on the level.

245 Font

3 pts Chapmanshype 4/1 bet365
(saver) 1 pt Gateway To Europe 3/1 PP 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.00 Beverley - 1pt win Coley's Koko @ 6/1 Bet365

Brazen Belle will do well to win this under penalties and whilst the favourite has good claims, isn't unbeatable and I like the chances of Nigel Tinkler's runner. Shaped pretty well on debut when only beaten 5 lengths and she was quite an expensive purchase. You'd expect her to come on for that being from the Tinkler yard and the race itself looks a pretty decent one. The 2nd and 3rd that day were solid types with good form in the book and rated around 80, the 4th won easily next time and the 6th was a good second - Coley's Koko was 5th on that occasion and looks capable of making the step up today with the best draw of the front three at the head of the market to boot.

1.30 Beverley - 2pts win Prudhoe @ 7/2 Bet365

Similar story here where I'm keen to take on the favourite who saddles a penalty for winning a weak race on debut and was disappointing last time out. Has hung on both occasions and whilst less of an issue at a right handed track today, doesn't fill be with confidence. Prudhoe was supported when running a good race on debut, not beaten far despite a slow start behind Ben Macdui, who has subsequently run second in group company to be rated in the 100s. That race looks decent enough - the horse one place behind Prudhoe hacked up next time out and from stall 1 looks to have a big chance with typical improvement on second start.

2.00 Beverley - 1pt e/w Musharrif @ 8/1 Bet365

Has been running himself back into form including when an excellent fourth here last week. Historically can need a few runs after a break to get up to speed and wasn't beaten far despite racing wide throughout and only lost 2nd late on. Is primed to strike off an excellent handicap mark and suggested his turn wasn't far away six days ago. Again has a wide draw to contend with here but there are only 8 runners in here today so should find it easier to assume a better track position than he did last week and can run a big race.

2.30 Beverley - 1pt e/w Twiggybark Creek @ 14/1 Hills

Interesting that this one was heavily backed on debut on the all weather - failed to fire but there was confidence there and whilst only a small sample size, so far Twilight Son's progeny have a poor record on artificial surfaces so may turn out better on turf. Whilst beaten nearly 6 lengths next time out, it was in a very hot race as it turns out. The ratings of those ahead of him now stand at 100, 82, 84 and 85 and the horse behind him is now rated 72. Twiggybark Creek goes handicapping off 69 today with Thomas Greatrex taking off a further 3lbs so has been given a chance by the handicapper and there's sufficient stamina on the dam's side to suggest this step up in trip can suit too - worth a go at a handy price.

3.00 Beverley - 1pt e/w Osmosis @ 25/1 Bet365

At the price I think it's worth chancing Jason Ward's runner from stall 1 as on her form of last summer would be thrown in off a mark of 48 despite having failed to get her head in front to date. Ran a number of sound races under similar conditions to this off marks in the 60s and although showing very little on her first two starts this year, shaped much better last time out at Leicester - losing her place mid race before staying on again over the 7f trip. That was too short for her so the step back up in trip will help and if building on that, can make the price look a big one today.

3.15 Fontwell - 2pts win Ferrobin @ 11/2 Bet365

Lurks on a very good handicap mark and has had obvious excuses this year. Was a bit in and out last year, resulting in his handicap mark coming down quite dramatically but also ran some disappointing races on soft ground which may not have suited as his best efforts have come on a sound surface. Gets that today and was sent off a short price favourite in a chase on his seasonal reappearance - didn't make it past the first that day but shaped better when not beaten far and going well for a long way back over hurdles last time. Entitled to come on for that given it was essentially his first run of the year and can take advantage of his lowly handicap mark with that under his belt.